Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential election marks a turning point in investment trends. His return to the White House raises expectations about changes in economic policies, which could benefit certain sectors more than others. «The results of the US elections will have profound implications for the global economy. In this case, with Trump’s victory we hope to see a policy promoted by tax cuts in that country and a more protectionist stance, in many aspects, similar to what we saw in his previous mandate,” they say from the Openbank investment team to ABC.
The ‘America first’ message promoted by the Republican candidate suggests a focus on internal competitiveness, which has boosted US markets and weakened European stock markets. The projected policies could benefit key sectors, such as technology and banking, while renewables would lose momentum compared to traditional energy, the bank says.
«We think that the US indices will perform well in the coming months, driven mainly by the promised reduction in the corporate tax rate. This will have a significant impact on the cash generation of American companies and investors have already begun to discount them,” says market analyst Javier Cabrera.
One of the sectors that could benefit from Trump’s victory is the automobile industry, says Cabrera. Trump remains confident that protectionist policies benefit certain national companies, especially in this industry, affected by competition from low-cost Chinese electric cars, says the expert, who points out that tariffs would redirect demand towards national brands such as GM, Ford and Tesla.
“Banks, industrial, materials, energy and tech,” says Nahum Sánchez de Lamadrid, director of variable income at CBNK Asset Management, about the sectors that can benefit in the short term. The market expects Trump’s protectionist policies to maintain the inflation over 2%, slowing the decline in rates and benefiting cyclical sectors such as industry, energy and local technology, he adds. The expert also points out that electricity, pharmaceutical, real estate and consumer discretionary companies will benefit.
Johan Van Geeteruyen, CIO of fundamental equities at DPAM, believes some of the companies that will be most affected are renewable energy companies, although his stance could be tempered by pragmatic considerations. “Increasing tariffs on imported clean energy equipment goods could temporarily disrupt renewable energy projects, but could also encourage investment in domestic manufacturing,” he says. Van Geeteruyen also highlights that American oil and gas producers could benefit from Trump’s fossil fuel-focused policies. Additionally, the financial sector could see a relaxation of regulatory requirements for banks.
Regarding the technology sector, Van Geeteruyen suggests that, although Trump has criticized ‘big tech’ and mentioned possible regulations, his position is ambiguous. It could intensify scrutiny over social media and privacy, restrict international technology alliances, especially with China, and support domestic manufacturing despite regulatory pressures. “The US sector could benefit from a focus on AI and strengthening key industries, while sectors dependent on global chains, such as manufacturing, could be harmed if trade tensions with China intensify,” says Gustavo Martínez, professor of finance at Francisco Marroquín University.
For Aurelio García del Barrio, director of the Global MBA with a specialization in finance at the IEB, the result of the elections drives the dollar upward due to expectations of stronger growth thanks to more powerful spending policies, more inflation and more deficits. . “The market believes that its policy of tax cuts and deregulation could be a key driver of economic growth, benefiting numerous companies in the process,” he says.
Regarding the possible trade war with China, Juan Figar, founder and managing partner of Collyer Capital, believes that the massive tax cut will boost the economy, although it will cause a increase in deficit in the short term. Figar observes that tariffs, together with this economic acceleration, will serve as a counterweight to mitigate the fiscal impact of this reduction in income. According to him, Trump sees tariffs as a means to attract production to the US with a focus on China. In addition, companies could continue looking for new destinations for their production centers, a process that has also been occurring in recent years, he concludes.
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