The American president, Joe Bidenwants to end his mandate with a deal in Ukraine that could compromise the Russian strategy of his successor, Donald Trump, and trigger a response from Moscow that bury any peaceful solution to that war in the medium term.
When the war in Ukraine turns a thousand days old, authorization for kyiv to use long-range US missiles against Russian territory It is a gauntlet thrown at the Kremlin that Moscow is not going to reject and that could decide the fate of Ukraine in the war and close all exits to its president Volodymyr Zelensky.
The first reaction of the Ukrainian leader to the news leaked by US officials to various media outlets in his country was a boastful threat: “Now the missiles will speak for themselves. And they will,” Zelensky said. in a nightly message to his compatriots.
However, the new Ukrainian strike capability may not have as much real strength as what Zelensky intends to give it. Although Biden’s direct challenge to Moscow is very serious, Not even Ukraine has enough missiles of this type to change the course of the warwhich Russia is currently winning, the theater of war where they will be used is not yet known.
Some information suggests that “Limited” use of long-range ATACMS missiles by the Ukrainian military could be limited to the Russian Kursk regionwhere the Ukrainian forces that invaded a sector in this territory in August are resisting. An ongoing Russian counteroffensive could encircle those troops, annihilate them, or force them to retreat, so American missiles would be very welcome by the Ukrainians that they resist there.
According to the president of the Duma or lower house of the Russian Parliament, Vyacheslav Volodinin fact they are already being used long-range missiles against military positions in the Russian Federationfor example with France’s permission for weapons of that type donated to Ukraine.
“They can certainly cause damage (US missiles), but they will not change the situation on the battlefield. On the contrary, they will aggravate the fate and future of Ukraine, and “will completely ruin Russian-American relations.”stated the Russian politician.
The need to strengthen Ukraine in the face of an eventual dialogue with Russia
The arguments used to explain Biden’s decision are very disparatefrom the response to the arrival of North Korean troops to Russia to fight in Ukraine, the consequence of the massive Russian attacks against critical Ukrainian infrastructure or the attempt to strengthen the Ukrainian position in eventual negotiations to reach an armistice.
The approach in the last days of the German chancellor Olaf Scholz to Russia, with a call to President Vladimir Putin, would point in this direction. Those who until recently in Europe were clamoring for the defeat of Russia as the only way out of the conflict are realizing that The war seems almost decided and not exactly in favor of its Ukrainian allies.
Last week, in his meeting with the winner of the elections, Biden stressed the need for “during and after the transition, Ukraine remains in the strongest possible position on the battlefield so that it can be in the best possible conditions at the negotiating table.” This was conveyed by the current White House National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan.
This view is not shared by everyone in the West. According to the leftist Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico“the clear objective (of Biden’s authorization) is to thwart or delay peace negotiations”. Fico called the decision a “militaristic” step.
On the other hand, it does not appear that Biden’s decision is a response to sending North Korean forces to fight in Ukraine as some media have suggested. Rather It would seem that Putin used this military alliance with North Korea to warn of the consequences that this permission could have and to emphasize that, no matter what happens, Russia will have enough troops, including North Koreansto prolong the war if the West becomes more involved in it.
In any case, the step taken by Biden, in addition to complicate Trump’s future foreign policy Barely two months before he takes office, it is for Russia an affront that shows the extent of the involvement of the West in the war that cannot go unanswered.
For Moscow, this step changes the “nature” of the war
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria ZakharovaHe recalled that Putin has already spoken about it. In September, he indicated that this step would turn the “essence” of the Ukraine war on its head. “It will mean that NATO countries, the US and European states are fighting against Russia“he assured.
As Putin pointed out then, the most serious thing is that The use of this weapon must have direct assistance from the Pentagon.with satellite data and the coordination and determination of attack parameters by the US military, due to their preparation and knowledge of missile systems.
Zelensky had been asking for this authorization for months and the White House had so far rejected it due to the high risk of direct confrontation with Russia. Last September, the Ukrainian leader presented his call to Biden Victory Planwhich included a section seeking permission from the Pentagon to hit Russian territory with ATACMS. In October he presented the plan before the European Union and the Ukrainian Parliament.
So this proposal received little enthusiasm from Ukraine’s allies, but there was already talk that Biden could give his permission at any time. The defeat of his vice president, Kamala Harris, to Trump in the presidential elections on November 5, put Biden on the ropes.
All of Washington’s actions to fuel the war, with its repeated commitment to Ukraine’s entry into NATO and his intention to convert kyiv is the bridgehead of the Alliance towards Russiawill lose their meaning if Trump stops the race and returns to square zero in the struggle with Moscow.
In the Trump Administration there will be figures in favor of negotiating with Russia and ending the warif not in 24 hours as the new American president repeatedly promised, at least in a very short time, and Zelensky should take that into account to try to save what can still be saved in Ukraine and not become a hostile element for Washington’s new foreign policy.
It already is for Trump’s future vice president, J.D. Vancewho has made it clear that Ukraine will have to give up territory occupied by Russia in eventual negotiations.
A flight forward for a cornered Zelensky
The great danger now is that Zelensky will seek a coup d’état with the use of long-range missiles against some emblematic Russian target, in order to celebrate that victory internationally. Some of the missiles that the British and French could deliver following the US example could even reach Moscow. Zelensky’s plans do not exclude anythingin this sense.
Such an attack would involve unprecedented response from Russiawould end the possibility of talks and possibly would sentence the fate of Zelensky himselfwhose future is between a rock and a hard place in the face of the debacle experienced by the Ukrainian army.
The Russian bombing on Sunday dealt a new deadly blow to Ukraine’s energy systems; The fighting is unfavorable for the Ukrainians, from the east to the southeast of the country, with the unstoppable advance of the Kremlin army in Donetsk and an offensive in the making in Zaporizhzhia, further south.
Besides, Ukrainian army still lacks enough soldiers to launch a forceful counteroffensive against Russia and even to keep its own lines intact for a long time to come.
These missiles are going to be of little use to the Ukrainian army when Russia may push its potential targets further and further awaysuch as air bases, ammunition depots and command centers.
Last but not least, the supply of those long-range missilesin case Trump turns off the tap on American aid, would be in the hands of the Europeanswho do not seem to be so willing to deplete their own arsenals.
Moscow’s response
Among the responses that the Kremlin could give to this turn in the war could be the increase in North Korean forces fighting in Ukraine and Kursk. Until now, it is estimated at about 10,000 North Korean soldiers shipped there, but this number could be multiplied by ten.
Pyongyang could also increase the shipment of missiles and ammunition to be used in Ukrainewhile Moscow supplies it with aerospace and atomic military technology to strengthen North Korea’s nuclear role in Asia, further threatening American allies, that is, South Korea and Japan.
Nor have they forgotten in Moscow Zelensky’s recent threat to obtain atomic weapons in case the Ukraine’s entry into NATOone of the demands of his Victory Plan. A very dangerous threat considering that Russia has just reformed its nuclear doctrine, which enables it to respond with atomic weapons to an attack with conventional weapons. For example against those Western long-range missiles.
Even though it is bravado intended to further unsettle kyiv’s Western allies, In Russia they have taken it upon themselves to remember that a dozen atomic weapons in Ukrainian hands can do little in the face of the largest nuclear powder keg on the planet.the Russian. An arsenal whose key is kept by a guy, Putin, who is implacable and who has already shown in the past how far he can go to achieve his objectives.
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