The CIS barometer for November predicts a consolidation of the lead of the Socialist party (PSOE) on the People’s Party (PP) in a study whose interviews were all carried out between November 2 and 7that is, when the effects of DANA were already known and in the midst of a political earthquake due to its management. The citizens interviewed were also already aware of the Errejón case. However, support for Add has not been resentful, always according to the estimates of the center he directs Jose Felix Tezanos.
Thus, the survey gives the PSOE a 34.2% electoral supportwhile the PP would obtain 29.3%. The socialists experience an increase of two tenths compared to the October study and the popular fall 2.3 points. It is always difficult to analyze the results, but this drop could be explained, in part, by the management of DANA in the Valencian Country by Carlos Mazón and his team. In any case, the distance between both parties is, at this point and always according to the CIS, at about five points.
The third preferred political formation of the Spanish continues to be Vox. Support for the far-right party has remained unchanged between October and November: 11.8% of voters would opt for the party that leads Santiago Abascal if they were called general elections.
A priori, therefore, the crisis generated by DANA nor the electoral environment in USA. It is true, in any case, that only a part of the interviews were carried out when the victory of donald trump. The Republican candidate was declared the winner on the night of November 5th and 6th and the polls were conducted between the 2nd and the 7th.
The ‘Errejón case’ does not take its toll on Sumar
The November CIS was also going to be consulted with great attention from the ranks of Add. It is the first CIS after the scandal surrounding the former spokesperson in Congress of the party and its parliamentary group, Íñigo Errejónaccused of sexist violence and with several legal complaints for sexual harassment already behind him, being that of the actress Elisa Mouliaá the first one that came to light.
However, the data provided by the demoscopic institution do not reflect any electoral damage for those of Yolanda Diaz. If in October, the CIS estimated 6.3% support for their training; November puts it at 7%. Canfor its part, went from 3.3% support last month to 3.4%.
Junts ‘surprises’ ERC
In the particular struggle between the two Catalan independence groups with a presence in the Spanish parliamentary system, there has been a surprise. In October, Republican Left (ERC), with 1.6% of support, was ahead of Together for Cataloniawhich had 1.2%. In November, Junts has taken the lead and would obtain 1.7% of support compared to 1.5% of ERC. November will be, on the other hand, an important month for the Republicans, since they will decide in a conclave the November 30 which candidacy the party leads in the coming years.
(There will be an extension)
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