Christmas 2024 arrives just when inflation begins to give Spaniards a break, after a three-year period marked by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. This being the case, many merchants face the purchasing campaign with the hope that it will balance the accounts for a 2024 in which consumption has not yet been buoyant. From there, what the data indicates is that the recovery will not be equally fast for everyone, since the consumer profile has changed. He advances his purchases – more than half of them are made on ‘Black Friday’ –, he is more reflective and buys more on the Internet, where small businesses are still behind large companies.
The studies do not agree on putting a figure on the percentage of annual turnover that depends on Christmas – among other things, because they do not agree on how many days the campaign really lasts – but these data are valid as an approximation.
The National Association of Perfumery and Cosmetics estimates that for its nearly 400 associated companies this time of year represents between 18% and 20% of the annual cash, and for toy manufacturers it is 60%, according to their employers’ association. There is no global data on retail trade, but it is clear that in those dates are played a lot.
As has already been advanced, the macroeconomy provides enough for trade to be optimistic this year. In September, the rise in the consumer price index (CPI) marked a milestone by falling below 2% (1.5% compared to 2023), the threshold from which the European Central Bank (ECB) considers that prices are under control. It is early to claim victory because the inflationary truce – the index had been moderating for four months – ended in October with a rebound to 1.8% and The CEOE predicts a slight inflationary acceleration towards the end of the yearbut in any case everything indicates that the combination of more moderate prices and higher income will encourage Christmas demand.
The post-inflation buyer
In its report on this year’s forecasts, the association of logistics and transport companies, UNO Logistics, estimates that shipments will grow in relation to 2023. However, at the same time the average ticket will be reduced, “which will cause “The turnover of companies does not grow as much as the number of shipments,” reads the UNO report. This, the text continues, reflects that the profile of the buyer in Spain has changed: «We are looking at a thoughtful buyer, not very impulsive and who has spent time planning his purchases, prioritizing the quality-price relationship and the acquisition of products with more competitive rates and with payment facilities.
A study by OBS Business School and the University of Barcelona goes along the same lines, and points out the sensational increase in electronic commerce as one of the consequences of this change in habits, since the Internet is perceived as an easier means of finding offers. This explains the rise of ‘Black Friday’ (November 29 or a few days longer for some companies), an event that is also becoming increasingly virtual.
Internet gains weight
The surveys carried out annually by the Cetelem consumer credit bank show a per capita spending of around 500 euros (471 in 2023) for the entire campaign. Well, only for ‘Black Friday’ in 2024, Cetelem expects it to be 280 (almost the same as the previous year). More optimistic, the consulting firm Rocket Digital places the average disbursement for that day at 295 euros, 18% more than in 2023. In turn, according to Cetelem in 2024, 52% of Spaniards will buy only online during ‘Black Friday’. ‘ (three points more than in 2023), 40% will do so ‘online’ and in a physical store and only 8% only in a physical store.
The data continues. UNO Logistics predicts that its associates will manage almost 115 million shipments (7.1% more than in 2023) from electronic commerce in the 28 days that they count as the Christmas campaign. It is an average of 3.9 million daily shipments, with peaks of up to five million the days immediately after ‘Black Friday’, the week following Cyber Monday and the week before Christmas.
That is to say, that Christmas consumption has shifted towards ‘Black Friday’, which is a mainly virtual phenomenon, and that puts small businesses in a difficult situation.
To contextualize the latter, some data is worth it. According to a study presented by the consulting firm NERA in June, between 2005 and 2022, sales of small businesses fell by almost 40% while those of electronic commerce multiplied 23 times. The causal relationship cannot be categorically stated because elements of analysis are missing – the rise of large stores – but the truth is that while ‘ecommerce’ became fashionable, since 2014 50,000 ‘old-fashioned stores’ have disappeared in Spain. All analyzes agree, the presence of SMEs on the Internet is key for them to compete with platforms and large stores.
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