The electoral victory of donald trump brings bad omens for Ukraine, stifles Palestinian hope of surviving the israeli genocidewill open gaps in the NATOraises many unknowns in the relationship with Russia and raises concern in Chinathe greatest rival of American hegemonism and where it is trusted that economic pragmatism will end up marking the steps of the new tenant of the White House.
What many feared and few desired is now here. Now, even those many wipe the slate clean and try to save the furniture before the imminent re-entry into the White House of the Republican Donald Trump, winner of the US presidential elections this Tuesday over the country’s current vice president, Kamala Harriswhom many of his compatriots have not stopped seeing as a successor of the current president, Joe Biden.
A president whose foreign and defense policy was characterized since 2021 by the confrontation with Russia and Chinathe closing of ranks with Israel, turning a deaf ear to its genocide in Gaza and the invasion of Lebanon, and the promotion of NATO as a global military bloc led by the United States.
Netanyahu and Trump’s historic return
One of the first to applaud Trump’s victory and his next return to the White House, which he already occupied between 2017 and 2021, was the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who effusively congratulated the Republican candidate.
“Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a return to commitment to the great alliance between Israel and the United States. It’s a big win!“Netanyahu announced on the social network X.
In his crusade against Hamas and Hezbollah, and in the process the destruction to the foundations of Gaza and the annihilation of 43,000 of its inhabitants, Netanyahu has had the tacit support of USAwhich has stopped a forceful response from the great ally of these militias, Iran. The congratulations of Netanyahu.
Trump’s unpredictable character does not please all the extremists in the Government in Israel
That American support has also been explicit, equipping the Israeli army with the bombs and planes that have devastated the Strip and crushed the Shiites of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and deploying several war fleets in the Eastern Mediterranean and the seas of the Middle East to order Iran not to move much.
In this election campaign, trump promised that in the event of war between Israel and Iran, I would protect Israel without hesitation. Regarding the lack of appreciation he has for the Palestinians, an example may be that it was under his previous mandate that the US recognized Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and moved its Embassy there.
Israeli misgivings
But Trump’s unpredictable character does not please all the extremists in the Government in Israel. The next president of the United States has encouraged them to conclude what they are doing in Gaza, which could involve the annexation of the Strip to Israel without Trump lifting a finger. But he has also insisted that he wants to bring peace to the Middle East, “and soon”, while calling to stop the killings of civilians.
Netanyahu does not have it all with him and pressure on the Israeli head of government to accept a truce and release them cannot be ruled out. the hostages still in the power of Hamas. In return, no one doubts that Trump will leave the future of Gaza, including its eventual disappearance, in the hands of Israel.
As for Iran, it was Trump as president who denounced the nuclear deal with the Persian country and removed the United States from it, while increasing sanctions on Iran. Tehran. It was also Trump who ordered the assassination of Iran’s most prestigious soldier, Qasem Soleimaniin Baghdad, in January 2020. That assassination was to “stop a war, not start a war,” Trump said then.
Zelensky is surely the one who has most regretted that the Republican leader returns to the White House
This point is important to know what Trump will do in the Middle East. While the Biden Administration has abided by the warlike actions and state terrorism promoted by Netanyahu in revenge for the 1,200 Israelis killed on October 7, 2023 by Hamas, Trump is not expected to follow such a pattern.
The businessman and politician has not been in favor of a large-scale war, not even with Iran, although he was about to provoke it with the assassination of Soleimani. Despite the recklessness demonstrated in many moments of his political career and personal lifeTrump has shown greater pragmatism than his Democratic adversaries in international affairs, without risking everything on the card of an armed conflict, neither in the Middle East nor in Europe.
End the Ukrainian war in 24 hours
In Ukraine, where the US supports the resistance to the Russian invasion with weapons and money, this issue is a tricky one, since the US presence in Europe is at stake, through NATO, which Trump has not digested well either.
The president Volodymyr Zelenskydespite his congratulations to Trump for the victory, is surely the one who has most regretted that the Republican leader returns to the White House.
On numerous occasions Trump has shown that the Russian president, Vladimir Putinhe finds it more fun than the Ukrainian. He has also reiterated his promise that, if he returned to power, he would end within 24 hours the war in Ukraine and the onerous American involvement in that conflict unleashed by the Russian invasion of that country in February 2022.
With $54 billion of aid already delivered, mainly in weapons, the US is Ukraine’s main donor. Next is Germany, with barely 11 billion dollars. Cutting this military aid (many billions more are committed) is one of the promises made by Trump to his voters.
And without American help, Ukraine’s war future is doomed, since the European allies in NATO do not have the capacity to replace it. Such a step will also fuel the discordant voices in the Alliance and the European Union. The gaps opened by Hungary and Slovakia will multiply, and kyiv knows this.
In kyiv, it is not ruled out that Trump will pressure Zelensky to sit down and negotiate with the Russians
Ukraine is losing the war in the Donetsktheir offensive in the Russian region of Kursksees the ranks of his army depleted by casualties, exhaustion and desertions, and is experiencing very low moments in his morale due to the destruction of his energy capacity by Russian bombs, which will make this winter very hard.
In kyiv, it is not ruled out that Trump will pressure Zelensky (and, above all, its European allies) to sit down and negotiate with the Russians, even if that means the loss of the territories already annexed by Moscow.
To avoid that, Zelensky, after praising this Wednesday Trump’s “stunning” victorypractically put himself in their hands and appealed to the “strength” of the United States to bring peace to Ukraine. “I appreciate Trump’s commitment to the principle of ‘peace through strength’ in international affairs. “It is exactly the principle that can, in a practical way, bring us closer to a just peace in Ukraine,” he asserted.
It does not seem that these words are going to move Trump much, who on several occasions has expressed his disdain for Zelensky and has criticized Biden for supporting him with multimillion-dollar aid. “Zelensky is the best salesman in history. Every time he comes to the United States he leaves with a deal of 60 billion dollars“Trump said at an election rally.
And the relationship with Ukraine will depend on his plans with Ukraine. Russiawhose president will undoubtedly take advantage of Trump’s return to expose the NATO and weaken it further if US support for kyiv is reduced. However, given Trump’s volubility, no one would be surprised if he held a summit with Putin himself in a few months.
Trump’s Chinese mystery
Trump’s biggest international unknown will be China, which in Biden’s last months has even been incorporated into the new axis of evil along with Russia, Iran and North Koreafor Beijing’s implicit support for Moscow in Ukraine. However, Trump’s arrival to power at a time when US relations with China have been carried away by an unstoppable rivalry It does not seem that it will result in a direct military confrontation.
The all-out defense of Taiwan against mainland China flaunted by the Biden Administration Nor does it seem like it will be the center of Trump’s Asian strategy. It is not clear what interest Trump may have in that island, beyond its ability to produce microchips. The Republican leader even said during the campaign that Taiwan should pay the US for defending it against China.
Trump even proposed 60% rates for all imported Chinese products
It is evident that the economy will continue to pit the United States against the China of Xi Jinping. The future American president even proposed 60% rates for all imported Chinese products. This would lead to a global trade debacle and especially of the US economy itself, and this, in reality, is what Trump will take into account to not apply such a measure.
Furthermore, just as Trump has respect for Putin, a strong leader in his eyes, so he shows admiration for President Xi. This will avoid madness around Taiwanbut it could also help channel commercial and technological brawls to avoid an economic conflagration that drags down the entire planet.
The unpredictable Trump who came to negotiate face to face again and again with the North Korean leader, Kim Jon-uncould do the same with Xi and prevent the trade war between the two superpowers from leading to a disaster for everyone and, on the contrary, setting guidelines for cooperation moderated by Trumpian isolationism. Even to the detriment of the United States’ European allies, as has already been threatened in the past.
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