We woke up with a new ‘certainty’ in this parallel reality of light opinion and the amplified communication of social networks. It was stated that in penalty shootouts you have to kick first because, supposedly, that gives the advantage.
According to the criteria of
As if it were revealed truth, the Argentine TV narrator said it first in the penalty shootout in which the Medellín was eliminated from the semifinal of the Copa Sudamericana by Lanús. His commentator continued: he criticized the DIM for winning the toss and choosing to kick second.
Immediately, the ‘analysts’ on social networks, radio and TV journalists repeated that all day…
football lie
Football is a mirror of the world and that is why it is full of hoaxes, fake news, statements that are taken as truth without any verification. That is why social networks are the minefield of unpunished lies, of light and lame statements. But the reality, the facts, the data are unquestionable: penalty shootouts are won and lost equally by kicking first or second.
This is confirmed by perhaps the most complete research on the matter, carried out by Professor Ricardo M. Sánchez, from Trinity University (USA): he took 663 penalty shoot-outs in the most important tournaments since 1970, the year in which This tiebreaker was regulated in football.
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According to their study, the one who kicks first wins 50.8 percent of the time, compared to 49.2 percent of the time for the one who kicks second. “There is no notable evidence to support the existence of the first mover advantage phenomenon, which negatively affects the second due to the added pressure. The statistic is not significant,” he says.
And he adds: “There are also no big differences between before and after 2003, the year in which the Fifa regulations stipulated that the winning team of the draw shot first out of obligation. Between 1970 and 2003, 294 shootouts were carried out, with a 51.4 percent victory rate for the team in charge of taking the first penalty. This percentage has barely changed in the 369 penalty shootout qualifiers held since 2003, as the figure barely drops 1 percent, to 50.4 percent.” And in the World Cups 34 penalties have been taken and 17 times the one who kicked first won and 17 times the one who started by saving! Ha!
‘Fast and slow thinking’
Luis Morán, goalkeeper of Antigua GFC, stops a penalty from Ariel Rodríguez of Saprissa this Tuesday, in a match of the quarterfinals of the Concacaf Central American Cup, at the Pensativo stadium in Antigua (Guatemala). EFE/ Fernando Ruiz
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Be careful with this fact, which even goes against the hoax of the day: until Morocco’s victory over Spain in the round of 16 in Qatar, in the World Cup there was a streak of 7 consecutive rounds won by the one who started by blocking: in 4 of them The goalkeeper blocked the first charge. And there’s more: of the 10 times in which the first shot was wrong, only two teams recovered to achieve victory.
Does the one who takes the first penalty have an advantage? Another football lie!
That is another example of the “theory of fast and slow thinking” by Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner in economics. “People draw conclusions very quickly and change their minds very slowly. That is why first impressions are so important because, even if they are wrong, they are difficult to change.”
Meluk tells him
GABRIEL MELUK
SPORTS Editor
@MelukLeCuenta
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