The presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remains tight, but the Republican candidate appears to be consolidating his resilience and keeping his electorate loyal. This is what can be concluded from the data indicated in a new survey conducted by the newspaper The New York Times and by Siena College, released this Sunday (8).
According to the survey, Trump has a slight advantage in the voting intentions of likely voters (remembering that voting is not mandatory in the United States), with 48% against 47% registered for the Democratic candidate. The advantage is within the margin of error of almost 3 percentage points, which indicates that either of the two could win the presidential race, if the elections were held today.
The numbers remain largely unchanged from the previous poll, conducted in late July, shortly after Joe Biden dropped out of the race for reelection. Even after a turbulent period with Biden’s departure and a surge in support for Harris, support for Trump appears to have held steady.
For political analysts, the survey may indicate a recent shift in favor of the Republican candidate, as the poll NYT/Siena is one of the few high-quality nationals that did not show the vice president receiving a significant surge in support after her nomination at the party’s convention in August.
According to the Teamsthis is the first time Trump has had at least a nominal lead in a “major, nonpartisan national poll” in about a month. In his own polling averages The New York TimesHarris has a slight lead over Trump, 49% to 47%. The new poll also shows alignment with surveys conducted in states considered decisive for the outcome of the election, with the Democratic candidate tied or with a slight lead over the Republican.
With the campaign’s only debate scheduled for Tuesday (10), Harris still needs to convince a significant portion of voters who say they don’t know enough about her policy positions. According to the poll, 28% of likely voters said they feel they need to learn more about Harris, compared with 9% who said they need to know more about Trump.
The poll was conducted among 1,695 registered voters between Sept. 3 and 6. The margin of error is 2.8 percentage points among likely voters.
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