Verstappen, Norris and the game of cross-party alliances

Nine races for a title

70 points, nine GPs, three Sprints, two contenders and one title. These are the numbers we start from after the Dutch GP and the peremptory victory achieved by Lando Norris in the home fiefdom of the reigning world champion, Max Verstappen. The Red Bull Dutchman remains firmly in command of the standings, but the performance trend is now clear: Norris and McLaren are constantly improving and can even be dominant on certain tracks – as certified by the advantage of over 20 seconds on the finish line at Zandvoort – while on the Milton Keynes side it seems that things have completely lost the way to get the RB20 back to shine as happened at the beginning of the season.

But if in the Constructors’ Championship the games are wide open and Ferrari can also get back in the running for victory, among the drivers Verstappen still has a non-negligible cushion of points: 70, when there are still 258 up for grabs. The counts are starting to get wasted: for Verstappen, always coming in second might not be enough if Norris also starts to collect Sprints and fast laps. But the reality is that The title this year could be decided by the ‘supporting actors’that is, the other drivers and the other top teams, who have already demonstrated on several occasions that they can enter the challenge between friends-rivals Max and Lando.

Teammates

First of all, the two respective teammates must be mentioned: Oscar Piastri could be the main swing vote in Norris’ comeback attempt. In four GPs this year – Monaco, Austria, Hungary and Belgium – the Australian has reached the finish line behind the world champion. If in the last nine races this situation were to happen again in at least three or four more occasions (obviously with Norris ahead of both) then the pendulum could really swing towards the ’99 Bristol native. At the moment Norris’s run-up is weighed down by the seven points lost in Budapestwhen the team made him leave the first position in favor of Piastri. “To win the title you will need your partner“, was told to Norris by the papaya wall. Now is the time to give concrete follow-up to those words.

Sergio Perez on the other side of the fence seems to be more of a weakness than a strength for Red Bull. It is difficult to imagine that he could slow down Norris in any way in the race. His role then could be that of ‘collector’ of fast laps: especially if the situation in the Constructors’ standings were to worsen for Red Bull, it is not difficult to imagine team orders that force Perez to sacrifice his race – especially in the final laps – to try to take away the possible bonus point for the fastest lap from the ‘first driver’ of McLaren. The last lap of Zandvoort teaches us from this point of view – in the opposite direction – and could have been an important coup pulled off by Andrea Stella’s team.

The Role of Ferrari and Mercedes

While Verstappen will hardly be able to count on Perez to ‘put him’ ahead of Norris in race situations, a unexpected ally for theorange it could be the Ferraris. The Maranello team will bring important updates to Monza and – according to the standings – is still fully in the running for the Constructors’ title much more than the Drivers’. This may be bad news for Red Bull, but it is instead useful for the Hasselt native. The reds in fact have every interest in beating Norris and if they were to succeed in at least a couple of races – a feat which, looking at the calendar, is not at all impossible – they could to give the final blow to the Englishman’s comeback ambitionsRecovering 7-8 points per game is one thing, ‘limiting’ yourself to a gain of 3-4 points would not be enough for the 24-year-old Englishman.

And the Mercedes? In theory, Brackley’s situation is the same as Maranello’s, but with no more ambitions for the Constructors’ title. Every race won by Hamilton and Russell would be an advantage for Verstappen and it is now known how much Toto Wolff wants to bring – sooner or later – the Dutch champion to the black and silver. Playing ‘dirty’ to favor Norris would certainly not be the best way to ingratiate oneself with him. However, it is useless to remember how McLaren has historically had a very close relationship with the Stuttgart-based company. In the event of a sprint finish, along the lines of 2021, these ‘corporate’ and political ties – let’s not forget the Wolff-Brown axis against Christian Horner – could also have an impact.