Summer vacation is over for Formula 1. Like a year ago, the Belgian GP is just behind us and we start again from Holland. Then Monza and the eight races of the grand finale overseas. Everything as in 2023, but not according to the mathematics.
A year ago, in fact, after 14 GPs the Red Bull duo was firmly ahead of everyone in the standings: Verstappen with 314 points, Perez with 189. Alonso the first of the pursuers with 149 points; then Hamilton with 148 and Leclerc and Russell tied at 99. In other words: Red Bull already dominated the championship (not to mention that at that point it also had a full haul of victories).
Today instead we go to Zandvoort with Max still in the lead, but with ‘only’ 277 points and his teammate Perez seventh and very far behind at 131. The can-colored missiles are therefore still ahead of everyone in the standings, but with 408 points in total against the 503 of 2023 at the end of the holidays. And the almost 100 point delay Red Bull is being shared by McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari, in strict order of technical form at this moment.
That is to say: given that McLaren has already won twice, not without throwing away a lot of points; given that Mercedes has taken home three of the last four Grands Prix (and in both cases we are only talking about Sunday GPs, without paying too much attention to the short ones on Saturday) and Ferrari has already finished on top of the podium twice, we should still see some great things…
In short, we are talking about this 2024 World Championship which is undoubtedly the most fought, and therefore the most uncertain, since the Hybrid Era began in 2014. Which has not only given us one-color seasons: Mercedes dominated the championships from 2014 to 2020, but at least in two years Ferrari gave them some headaches. And the Max-Red Bull duo of the last three seasons has also dominated twice – 2022 and 2023 – but in 2021 the most important title came only at the end of the final bullfight in Abu Dhabi, not without the help of a race direction that in the hottest moment of the GP got involved in one of the most controversial and criticized disciplinary decisions in history.
But let’s face it, this 2024 is something else. To find a championship phase that is equally uncertain, we have to go back in time to 2012, when the first eight races had eight different winners. That was the year of the world championship duel between Vettel in Red Bull and Alonso in Ferrari, beaten by the skin of his teeth mostly due to Grosjean’s Lotus flying into him from behind at the start in Belgium in the summer. But again: there are four combatants in this world championship today; and the form of McLaren and Mercedes starting in May promises sparks in the part of the season that starts again now.
And Ferrari? Ferrari is where it was when we left off, a month ago. The number one team in the wake of Red Bull from the start of the season until Monte Carlo, where at the end of May it took its second win of the year with Leclerc after the one with Sainz in Australia in March. Then nothing, or almost nothing. Actually: a lot, but not exactly in the spirit of positivity. The SF-24 has gradually lost its bite, bitten by set-up problems triggered by developments that have worked poorly. A technical structure under the magnifying glass: chassis technical director Cardile left to marry Aston Martin; the much-desired Adrian Genius Newey first (apparently) close and now far away again, also he – it seems – with an Aston destiny.
Luckily, in Belgium a month ago some signs of positive light were seen. At Spa the Ferraris seemed more interpretable, more consistent: in a word, closer to those who are now winning. Enough? No, it’s not enough. The super-pragmatic Fred Vasseur says that the technical basis of the disappointments of June and July has been identified, and that from now on things will be different. For now we can only trust in his reading. And in the numbers, which are those at the beginning of this article. With this division of victories and points, Red Bull (also in technical crisis, and quite talked about on some of its systems) seems not to have the pace and the form to take flight again as in the past. This means a shorter standings, more mixed numbers. Will these values give the number 1 help to these Reds now expected to recover? Have your say.
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