F1 | Red Bull: Two World Championships at Stake, Is the Constructors’ Championship at Risk?

Can Max Verstappen really risk losing the world championship? Will Red Bull be able to fend off McLaren’s assault? Phase 2 of the 2024 F1 world championship will kick off next weekend. The ten rounds still on the calendar will award 284 points for the drivers’ standings and 485 for the constructors’, a haul that during the summer break has sparked exchanges of opinions among fans and even insiders.

The first two big questions obviously refer to the two general classifications, which see Verstappen and Red Bull in that first position taken under the first checkered flag of the season and never given up again.

But they are two different leaderships. Max spent the summer break with the tranquility that the 78-point advantage he now boasts over Lando Norris guarantees him. In fact, that is three Grand Prix margins, an enormous support that leaves room for only one possible scenario capable of truly reopening the game, namely two empty runs.

It’s possible, but as for the probability of it actually happening, we must remember that Verstappen’s last retirement dates back to the last Australian Grand Prix, and the previous one (also in Melbourne) in 2022. If Max has retired only once in the last 54 races, it is at least very unlikely that he will have two stops in the next 10.

Max also has a never-adverse fate on his side. In the Spielberg and Hungaroring races he risked a double defeat due to contacts with Norris and Hamilton, but in both cases he managed to finish the race in fifth position, putting together 20 points, just under a victory. These are also the steps (in a season that unexpectedly found itself in a scenario of technical balance) that moved the standings in a decisive way.

Since McLaren brought the updated version of its single-seater to the track (Miami GP), it has been Verstappen who has scored the most points (165), compared to Norris’ 141 and Hamilton’s 131.

Obviously, to hypothesize a Verstappen breathing down his neck, it is necessary to suppose that there is also an opponent capable of threatening him. The hypothetical difficulties of Max should correspond to a winning streak of Lando Norris, today first of the pursuers, and here too we are faced with a possible but not really probable scenario.

Behind Verstappen, the 2024 season is proposing a clash between 3 teams and 6 drivers, all winners of at least one race in the first part of the season. A balance that ultimately plays in favor of Max, who benefits from the group of opponents stealing points from each other.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing

Photo credit: Red Bull Content Pool

The Perez variable puts the Constructors at risk

The situation in the Constructors’ standings is very different. Red Bull owes its leadership to the perfect start to the season, with the two ‘doubles’ obtained in the Grands Prix of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. On the evening of Jeddah the gap between Red Bull and McLaren was 59 points, today it is 42. All the numbers confirm the great rise of the team led by Andrea Stella, despite the Piastri-Norris tandem having lost quite a few points. A clear trend that according to many insiders places McLaren not only in the role of great antagonist, but in that of absolute favorite.

The variable that is determining this situation has a name and surname: Sergio Perez. In the last eight race weekends Checo has obtained 28 points against Verstappen’s 141, contributing heavily to McLaren’s comeback.

More than by technical developments, the sprint for the Constructors’ Championship will be conditioned by the performance of the Mexican, saved in extremis from being sidelined before the summer break. At Red Bull everything was ready for Daniel Ricciardo’s return to the team, then it was Christian Horner himself who confirmed on the Monday after Spa (in a meeting held with the entire team in Milton Keynes) that nothing would change.

Go ahead with Perez, therefore, it is whispered thanks above all to the guarantee that in the event of defeat in the Constructors’ World Championship, a significant part of the financial loss will be compensated by the pool of Mexican sponsors, led by the magnate Carlos Slim. A scenario that would confirm Red Bull’s awareness that the sprint for victory in the team classification will be anything but a downhill path.