There were no surprises in the UK. Labour won a historic victory in the general election, securing an absolute majority in the House of Commons, well ahead of the Conservatives. The victory, predicted by polls for months, puts an end to 14 years of Tory governments amid great discredit for that political force.
According to the criteria of
Labour, led by Keir Starmer, took advantage of the internal struggles and deep crisis within the ranks of the Conservatives, who were forced to change their leadership on several occasions, fueling disenchantment among their supporters.
According to an exit poll released by the country’s television networks, Labour won 410 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party was left with 131 seats, its worst defeat ever, according to the British press.
Sunak took office in October 2022 after the disastrous economic mandate of just 49 days of Liz Truss, who had replaced Boris Johnson, embroiled in the scandal of parties at his official residence during the pandemic.
Sunak led the Conservative Party government through turbulent times due to Brexit, COVID-19 and international wars, events that severely damaged the British economy and triggered an increase in the cost of living.
In addition, several Conservatives close to the prime minister are under investigation on suspicion that they used insider information to bet on the date of the election before it was announced.
To everyone who campaigned for Labour in this election, to everyone who voted for us and put their trust in our changed Labour Party – thank you. https://t.co/q6yDNPnAbo
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) July 4, 2024
“Rather than a Labour victory, we have seen a Conservative defeat. I don’t think Labour has any great merits or an extraordinarily convincing programme, but what this election represents is a failure and a collapse of the Conservatives, who have not known how to manage the big issues or great expectations after Brexit, which was driven by them,” Enrique Banús, director of the Institute of European Studies at the University of Piura, told El Comercio.
I don’t think Labour has any great merit or an extraordinarily compelling programme, but what this election represents is a failure and a collapse of the Conservatives.
The expert refers to the economic situation and migration control, two aspects that have been a thorn in the side of the recent conservative governments. He explains that the changes of prime minister in the recent conservative era occurred precisely because things were not going well due to the government’s inability. “It was an attempt to stop a ship that was going downhill and without brakes.”
On the other hand, although the Labour Party has not aroused great excitement with its economic promises, it performed well in the campaign under the leadership of Starmer, who worked to bring his group closer to more centrist positions after the defeat in the 2019 elections of his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, of a more leftist leaning.
The changes that would come
Starmer has managed to maintain a favourable position in the polls and generate high expectations with his promises of cautious management of the economy, including a plan to strengthen criticised public services, particularly health.
“Labour’s programme sounds very nice, but experts say it is not affordable”says Banús, who emphasizes that we must wait to see what changes the new government makes to the electoral program.
In terms of immediate changes, Labour is expected to amend immigration policy, particularly with regard to Sunak’s policy of moving illegal immigrants to Rwanda, a move that has actually already been halted and which Labour has said it will not continue. However, it is not yet clear how it will regulate the flow of migrants.
British Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party, Rishi Sunak, reacts as he waits for the declaration of results for Richmond and Northallerton in Northallerton, northern England.
Photo:
Another visible change in the short term will be a somewhat more friendly approach to the European Union. Banús explains that the Labour Party is somewhat more pro-European than the Conservatives and has promised to renegotiate the terms of the divorce with a rapprochement with the bloc, although without returning to membership.
“The European Union is not exactly keen on getting too close or breaking down barriers and difficulties either. Yes, there will be some steps. The situation will improve a little bit, but not as much as they are promising,” says the analyst.
As for the great unknown of economic policy, experts quoted by the British press point out that The promises of economic growth and reduced inflation, while maintaining what Labour has promised, which is a tax cut for the middle class and working classes, are unrealistic.
“We will have to see on a day-to-day basis what happens in the economy and whether they will have to resort to not lowering taxes, with the disappointment that this may bring,” says Banús.
Testing
For the moment, Starmer has managed to keep Labour united and also convince public opinion. Therefore, it is expected that the success of his government will depend on the fulfilment of his promises.
Beyond that, the UK is entering a new cycle with citizens disillusioned with the political class.
“Everything remains to be seen. Acting in the opposition is very different from acting in government. Despite this, there should be more stability in the country because it will take some time before we start to see whether the electoral promises can be fulfilled,” Banús explains.
Starmer and Labour’s positions
Economy
- The Labour Party has developed a long-term “pro-business, pro-worker” economic strategy, with a new focus on “wealth creation” and industry.
- Starmer has promised not to raise taxes “for working people”, maintaining no increase in the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT.
Immigration
- Labour plans to reform the immigration system, introducing visa restrictions to reduce migration. The party has rejected the current government’s plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, and would set up a new returns unit.
- The party also plans to create a new Border Security Command that focuses on stopping human trafficking gangs and strengthening border security.
Health
- Labour will add 40,000 extra appointments each week to the NHS to reduce waiting times. This will include incentivising workers to make extra out-of-hours appointments, sharing resources, and using spare capacity in the private sector. Starmer also plans to double cancer screening and expand GP training.
Clean energy
- Starmer aims to achieve clean energy, boosting onshore wind, solar and offshore power with his Green Prosperity Plan. This plan, together with the private sector, would also create 650,000 jobs. The party would strengthen the implementation of the windfall tax, increasing the rate of the Energy Profits Levy by three percentage points and removing investment deductions.
Education
- Labour will fund free breakfast clubs in all primary schools, open 3,000 new nurseries and hire 6,500 new teachers. They also plan to increase investment in state schools and scrap tax breaks for private schools.
Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, during his final campaign events before the election.
Photo:
MIRACLES ASTO SANCHEZ
THE COMMERCE (PERU) / GDA
#elections #historic #victory #Labour #Conservative #era
