France..towards the far right

Things are not going according to plan. Three weeks ago, French President Emmanuel Macron called early elections in the hope of regaining political control after a crushing defeat in the European elections. In the first round of voting last Sunday, the far-right National Rally party came first, with the left-wing New Popular Front coalition in second place.

Macron’s Renaissance party came in third. Now, with about 33 percent of the vote, the far-right is on track for a stunning victory in Sunday’s second round. If the National Rally wins an absolute majority in the National Assembly—that is, 289 seats or more—Macron will have to invite Jordan Bardella, the party’s 28-year-old leader, to form a government. Under the “cohabitation” system with the president, the National Rally will be in power, free to pursue its hardline anti-immigrant agenda.

For the first time since Vichy, France will be in the hands of the far right. But the most likely scenario is that the National Rally will fail to secure a majority, leaving France with a hung parliament. Chaos will soon reign.

As the largest party, the National Rally will still try to rally support from other parties to pass legislation—but no one, perhaps besides a few dissident Republicans, will want to allow the far right to govern. With Macron at the helm of a divided and uncooperative parliament, France will be in a deep political crisis with no cure in sight. In the event of a hung parliament, Macron will have few options.

No contemporary French president has faced such a political and institutional impasse. His only option is to try to form a so-called national unity government, comprising MPs from Ennahdha, The Republicans, and perhaps some moderate MPs from the New Popular Front. But it is doubtful that such a grouping would reach a majority. Who would be the prime minister? It would have to be a politician who can work with the center-left, the center-right, and the right. That kind of compromise figure is in short supply in French politics today.

In any case, this will only be a temporary solution. Caretaker governments have little political legitimacy and can do little beyond pass budgets to keep the economy afloat. A year from now—the earliest constitutional time the president can re-use the power to dissolve parliament—Macron will almost certainly have to do just that and call another election. We’ll be back at square one, albeit in a more volatile environment. Overall, the prospects for a national unity government do not look good. Although Macron called on Sunday for a “great democratic and republican union” to defeat the National Rally, he has spent more time trying to convince the left than the far right. By rejecting what he calls “the two extremes,” he hopes to attract “center-left” voters to his centrist coalition. But Macron is deeply unpopular. And by claiming that the left is as much of a threat as the far right, he may also discourage centrist voters from casting their ballots for the New Popular Front in the runoff against the National Rally.

Their abstention could make it easier to elect more far-right MPs. And they don’t need help. By capitalizing on widespread disillusionment and anger, the National Rally is likely to emerge—with or without a majority—as the winner of the election. The party now dominates almost all sectors of French society and most of France’s regions.

Only the big cities are still resisting this wave, which is gaining ground in all age groups except the 18-24 age group, though it is also attracting significant support from younger voters. The wave is also strong among blue-collar workers, white-collar professionals and white-collar workers. What is new is that pensioners, Macron’s most loyal constituency so far, have shifted heavily to the far right in last month’s European elections. That far-right victory, now all but certain, was a long shot when Macron was first elected in 2017. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party had just eight deputies in the National Assembly, a far cry from the more than 200 it will win in Sunday’s vote. Macron has promised to protect France from right-wing extremism.

Yet since coming to power, he has borrowed from the National Rally’s playbook, pushing through controversial legislation such as the hardline immigration bill passed last year with the support of the far right, and instead of defeating the far right, Macron has paved the way for its own success. Whatever happens on Sunday, it is clear to all that Macron’s unnecessary gamble has failed miserably. But Macron’s loss is also France’s loss.

With no force capable of governing other than the hard right, the country will experience a period of great volatility and instability, and stability will be a thing of the past. For a country facing major economic, social and even military challenges, this is a frightening prospect. Such chaos is unlikely to dispel the lure of the “hard right,” which promises change from a broken system, when the presidential elections come around in 2027.

Now France stands on the edge of the abyss. It is a deeply anxious nation approaching a historic vote. Despite all the problems facing a hung parliament. Either France rejects the hard right and remains an open country, faithful to the liberal values ​​of the French Revolution, or it succumbs to xenophobia and bitter nationalism. The stakes have never been higher.

Philippe Marlier*

*Professor of French and European Politics at University College London.

Published by special arrangement with The New York Times