2024 will be a year of further expansion for the car market. According to the analysis drawn up byCredit & Mobility Observatory jointly with Experian, the world’s global information company and UNRAE, in the first four months of the year new car financing grew by 4.2% and at the same time registrations grew by 6.1% compared to the same period in 2023. Not only that: considering the close correlation between financing requests and registrations, with the former preceding the latter by three or four months, the peak in financing requests recorded in April, equal to +25%, suggests that the car market will experience a further rise in registrations within the first half of the year. Despite this positive trend, however, the full electric and plug-in vehicle segment remained blocked due to the prolonged wait for new state eco-incentives.
Financing requests for the first months of 2024: new increase in registrations
The trend in requests for financing for new cars tends to anticipate purchasing trends. Furthermore, seasonality seems to have a significant impact, especially in the summer period and in December, with consumers preferring to register new vehicles at the beginning of the year. The last change in financing requests in August 2023, which denoted strong growth over the period (+43.3%), was then reflected in the increase in registrations in September (+23%) and October (+20% ). In the last part of the year, the Observatory detected a progressive stabilization of financing requests, with percentage variations in line with 2022 levels. The growth of variations in the first months of 2024, up to +25% in April, it therefore suggests a new increase in registrations. Estimates of acceptance of financing requests for the entire new car sector stand at around 75%.
Better smaller installments for shorter periods and maxi-final payment
In addition to outlining possible trends for the future, the Credit & Mobility Observatory also offers a snapshot of the current state of consumption and the economic availability of Italians. By analyzing the financing contracts actually stipulated for the purchase of new cars by March 2024, the Observatory finds how Customer preferences are mainly concentrated on the price ranges between 15 and 25 thousand euroswhich represent 37% of the loans granted in the first quarter of the year, followed by cars under 15 thousand euros, 33.2% of the total.
For over half of the loans the monthly installments are between 250 and 350 euros with a final maxi-installment under 15,000 euros. Compared to the first 3 months of 2023, the request for installments within 250 euros has grown by 19%, but at the same time there is also a shift in the final maxi-instalment towards larger amounts: from +17% for an amount of 15 thousand euros at +27% for an installment of 20 thousand euros, up to +37% for amounts exceeding 20 thousand euros. Furthermore, in relation to the duration of the loans, 64% of the requests are between 2 and 4 years, while for longer periods of time the Observatory recorded a drop in requests of 24%. These elements outline how consumers tend to have less immediate economic availability compared to the past, preferring to contract for more modest and easier to cover installments, while they foresee more flexibility already in the short term, within 2-3 years, to pay off the loan. full payment.
Finally, the propensity to negotiate lower monthly installments has led the default rate on loans granted for new cars to settle at around 0.5% in the last 12 months, a consistently low figure since 2022. Thanks to the use of credit information systems, in fact, the banks of the car manufacturers have at their disposal an advanced customer control and selection tool which allows them to evaluate the debt potential and calibrate the installments based on the sources of income so as to minimize the risks, thus making It is possible to achieve such a low default rate.
Registrations of hybrid cars are growing
Analyzing the types of cars purchased, however, a growing trend towards the purchase of is confirmed hybrid cars (HEV), which represent 38.6% of registrations in the last 4 months, a share growing by 3.1 points compared to the same period in 2023. The greatest increase, however, concerns petrol vehicles, 3.5 share points more in the four months, reaching 31% of the total vehicles purchased. Due to delays in the issuance of state eco-incentives, announced as early as the end of November 2023, the plug-in hybrid car and electric car segments continue to struggle, stuck at 3.2% and 2.8% of total vehicles respectively. new cars, a sharp decrease since last year. This is a factor that is contributing to slowing down the energy transition in the country and which requires reflection on the need to soon make them the subject of more structured planning.
More new cars in the Centre-North, Campania first region for used cars
Going into the details of the distribution on the national territory, the majority of purchases of new vehicles take place in the Centre-North, while in the Centre-South the use of credit for the purchase of used cars is prevalent. Lombardy is the first region for financing requests (21.5%) and the second for new car registrations (15%), preceded in this case only by Trentino-Alto Adige (18%), where, however, they have a significant impact registrations carried out by rental companies. Tuscany follows for registrations (11% of the total) while Lazio is in second place for financing requests (12%). Lombardy is also in first place for property transfers (16%), followed by Campania (9.5%) and Lazio (9.4%). Campania is precisely the region in which there are the highest financing requests for used cars, equal to 17% of the total.
“Our work with UNRAE aims to intercept trends in the automotive sector and help operators in the automotive and financial market to understand consumers’ purchasing forecasts, their real spending possibilities and any market gaps”, comments Armando Capone, CEO of Experian. “By sharing unpublished data sources and valuable insights, we aim to create a system in an evolving market and identify concrete development opportunities for both producers and financial operators.” “Continuing the collaboration with Experian started last November allows us to increasingly enrich the wealth of information shared by us. We have now accumulated a history of 28 consecutive months, and our ability to develop analyzes and studies is becoming increasingly broad and reliable. We are also studying the possibility of developing more granular and detailed targeted insights, to provide even greater added value.” underlines Andrea Cardinali, Director General of UNRAE.
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