Claudia Sheinbaum: the five great challenges of the president-elect in Mexico, who promised ‘honesty’ and ‘zero impunity’

Despite the policy of “Hugs, not bullets,” the number of homicides is still very high, and the country registers more than 100,000 missing persons. “The ominous growth of organized crime and flourishing cartels is the most daunting problem that Sheinbaum will need to confront,” Michael Shifter, an expert at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank, told AFP.

“If it cannot stop the dramatic deterioration of Mexico’s security situation, it will be increasingly difficult to fulfill its social and economic policy agenda”he estimated.
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The president-elect promises to eradicate impunity, and like Amlo, focus on the causes of violence by expanding programs for youth, strengthening the national guard, more police intelligence and cooperation between institutions in charge of security.

“I commit to you to take Mexico along the path of peace, security, democracy, freedoms, equality and justice,” he said before thousands of followers in the Zócalo, the capital’s main square, after being confirmed. his victory this Sunday.

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Violence in Mexico leaves some 450,000 dead and nearly 100,000 missing since 2006, when The military was incorporated into the fight against the powerful drug trafficking cartels.

Sheinbaum confirmed that he will maintain the current government’s approach of attacking violence from the roots, in his opinion poverty and marginalization. “We will take Mexico along the path of security, we will move forward with attention to the causes, the strengthening of the National Guard,” she said, referring to an armed body created by López Obrador to replace a federal police force.

Although she did not specifically refer to gender violence, the president-elect had already announced a strategy against this crime that includes specialized prosecutors and free legal advice provided by women. According to the UN, Mexico registers an average of ten murders of women every day, many of them classified as femicides.
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Sheinbaum inherits a fiscal deficit of almost 6%, the largest in a quarter of a century despite Amlo’s austerity policies. In the last six-year term, the country barely grew 0.8% on average.

“The most important challenge for the next administration will be to correct the high fiscal deficit,” says Víctor Ceja, chief economist of Valmex.

The president-elect needs to swell the state coffers to finance the direct aid that 25 million young, elderly and disabled Mexicans currently receive and carry out other reforms.

“You need to spend money on many things, and there is no money. The infrastructure is obsolete. Electricity is a problem. (State oil company) Pemex is a problem,” summarizes Pamela Starr, an expert on Mexico at the University of Southern California.

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“We are going to guarantee all of President López Obrador’s welfare programs,” he said, referring to the multiple financial aid for the elderly, disabled and young people.

“We will dedicate the public budget out of conviction to guarantee all welfare programs (…) and also all the programs to which we committed,” he added.

In line with the outgoing president, he assured that his government will be “austere, honest, without influence, without corruption,” while ensuring that there will be no increases in fuel and electricity.

During the current government, 8.9 million people escaped poverty, a situation in which a third of the population of 129 million inhabitants still finds itself.

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On the other hand, Sheinbaum is betting on “nearshoring”, the transfer of a part of the production of foreign companies to the north of Mexico, to attract investments.

But Carlos Ramírez, from the risk consultancy Integralia, warns that “nearshoring is not Mexico’s great lifeline” and that its eventual success depends on improving security and infrastructure, water and energy supply.

“There is a lack of tax reform that increases revenue (…) The status quo is unsustainable,” esteem.

Water, whose availability has fallen 68% per capita since 1960, became a key campaign issue amid a heat wave, record temperatures and a drought affecting hydroelectric dams.

With a doctorate in environmental engineering, Sheinbaum promises to increase investment in clean energy, while Amlo bet on fossil energy by injecting millions into the indebted Pemex.

Poverty, and especially violence, are the main causes of the migration of Mexicans to the north. Of the almost 2.5 million migrant crossings to the United States, a third correspond to Mexicans, according to official US figures.

Critics maintain that for years Mexico has not had a true immigration policy and only reacts to US demands.

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Stephanie Brewer, director for Mexico of the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), deplores the “increasing actions of containment, detention and border militarization” that Amlo ordered at the request of the United States.

Managing the complex relationship with the United States poses another challenge for Sheinbaum, amid the uncertainty about who will win the November presidential elections and the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC) in 2026, for which Washington may demand compensation.

If President Joe Biden loses and Trump wins, promising to set up migrant detention camps and deport them en masse, “the biggest challenge Mexico will face is uncertainty,” says Starr. “The relationship will be much more punctuated by conflict.”

Mexico is the main trading partner of the United States, after displacing China in 2023. The northern country is the destination of 80% of Mexican exports.

The bilateral relationship is also marked by the incessant migration of undocumented people and the trafficking of fentanyl, a powerful opioid that kills thousands of people from overdoses in the United States each year.

“With the United States there will be a relationship of friendship, mutual respect and equality as it has been until now, and we will always defend the Mexicans who are on the other side of the border,” Sheinbaum said this Sunday.