Panama votes under the long shadow of Ricardo Martinelli

Despite having been left out of the electoral ballot, the figure of the disqualified former president Ricardo Martinelli has marked this Sunday’s elections in Panama, a country that has just faced an unprecedented drought, with environmental protests in a context of economic slowdown. His in-extremis replacement, José Raúl Mulino, has consistently led the polls in the final stretch of a rarefied campaign, in which he has as one of his main contenders another former president, Martín Torrijos, who still appeals to a comeback. Only until this Friday, a few hours before elections that are defined in a single round, the Supreme Court of Justice dispelled the uncertainty by finally endorsing Mulino’s appointment.

The former Security Minister, who has built a heavy-handed reputation, was originally the vice-presidential ticket for Martinelli, a populist leader who longed to return to the Presidency but was sentenced to more than 10 years in prison for money laundering – after having been extradited by the United States. From the Nicaraguan embassy, ​​where he has been holed up since February to evade the arrest warrant against him, Martinelli has openly promoted his replacement, and even recorded a video for the closing of the campaign, where they reserved an empty chair for him. on the platform “Mulino, beyond his personality, his character, etc., is not the owner of this voting intention. The owner of this voting intention, the leader, is clearly Martinelli,” says analyst Daniel Zovatto, an expert in elections and governance.

“Regardless of the legal criteria, what should not have been is that the process took as long as reaching two days before the election,” former President Torrijos told EL PAÍS, alluding to the court decision, which he rejected at the last minute. a lawsuit against the candidacy of Mulino, who is running without a vice-presidential ticket. “Both the Electoral Court and the Supreme Court of Justice had enough time to resolve the legal problems and not let them mix with the electoral times,” laments Torrijos, whose mandate (2004-2009) is remembered for the expansion of the Panama Canal.

He was succeeded by Martinelli, a businessman who made his fortune with a supermarket chain, who governed Panama in a phase of strong growth and multimillion-dollar investments in infrastructure that aroused nostalgia in many sectors. That is why he remains very popular despite his conviction – and the paradox that Panamanians consider successive corruption scandals as one of the most urgent problems to be resolved. In the streets, everyone recites by heart that during his mandate the Panama City subway was inaugurated, the first in Central America, and popular slang even refers to the one balboa coins – equivalent to one dollar – minted then as “a “Martinelli.”

“With his virtues and defects, the most charismatic leader, if not the only one, who currently exists in Panama is called Ricardo Martinelli. Wherever he is, whether he likes it or not,” says lawyer Eloy Alfaro de Alba, president of the publishing group that publishes The star, the oldest newspaper in Panama, and former ambassador to the United States. In one of the youngest democracies in Latin America, another important difference in these elections is that there are no hegemonic political parties with the option of power, observes analyst Guillermo Ruiz, director of Radio Ancón. “The traditional parties are going to be very diminished or divided, and that is an unprecedented situation,” he says.

In the midst of the discredit of the polls, which many distrust, only four of the eight candidates retain any real option. Mulino, from the Realizing Goals party – the same initials as Martinelli – is followed by former President Torrijos, who is running for the minority Popular Party after having distanced himself from the historic Democratic Revolutionary Party, and two other candidates who repeat their aspiration from five years ago. . They are Rómulo Roux, from Cambio Democrático, Martinelli’s original party; and Ricardo Lombana, the anti-system candidate. The outgoing president, Laurentino Cortizo, of the PRD, closes his term with very low popularity that sinks the options of the official candidate, José Gabriel Carrizo, the current vice president, better known as ‘Gaby’.

Whoever the next president is, he will have to address an accumulation of fiscal, environmental, immigration and anti-corruption problems, observers agree. Cortizo’s management has caused considerable social unrest. Late last year, the extension of a contract by Canadian miner First Quantum Minerals sparked a wave of protests. That outbreak escalated to cause its cancellation and the definitive closure of the Minera Panamá copper mine, which contributed almost 5% of the Gross Domestic Product. That episode has closed the door to mining projects in Panama, a country accustomed to growing beyond the 2.5% projected for this year.

These elections come together at a very critical moment, emphasizes analyst Zovatto. “It is a true crossroads in which Panama finds itself,” he points out when listing, among others, the economic slowdown and the downgrade to “junk” of the credit risk rating of the analysis firm Fitch. Added to this are two enormous challenges with the problem of water resources as a result of the drought that impacts the operation of the Panama Canal and the consequences of the closure of what was the largest mine in Central America. And also the problems derived from corruption scandals, impunity and the credibility crisis of political parties. “I have never seen such a complex election, with a former president who ends up being correctly disqualified, but who takes refuge in the Nicaraguan embassy and from there behaves as if he were Mulino’s campaign manager,” he warns.

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