F1 | Red Bull: who will be the first to break between Marko, Max and Newey?

The earthquake has stopped, at least apparently. For Red Bull the Melbourne weekend was stingy with results but at least it saw a return to normality, without the siege of the media stationed non-stop in front of the hospitality area.

One of the aspects that was striking in this story was the team's ability to isolate, a working group that carried out its task impeccably despite the political chaos that involved the team's top management. Looking from the outside, nothing has actually changed, every key person is still in place, but the earthquake has created cracks.

The questions in the paddock are precisely regarding the extent of the fractures, that is, whether there is room to recalculate relationships by bringing them back into a window compatible with work activity, or whether we need to prepare to see the 'magic' poker that gave birth at the last cycle Red Bull (Christian Horner, Helmut Marko, Andrian Newey and Max Verstappen) lost some pieces along the way.

Paradoxically, the fixed point in the future of Red Bull is precisely the one who started the chaos, namely Horner, thanks to the support guaranteed by the majority shareholder of the Red Bull group, Chalerm Yoovidhya, eldest son of the creator of the famous energy drink Chaleo Yoovidhya.

With Horner back to being very firm in his position, the questions are represented by the future plans of the counterpart, i.e. the Horner-Verstappen tandem together with the more silent Newey. On the one hand there is a project that has brought success to all its protagonists, with a driving force that ensures 2025 as absolute protagonists, on the other the need to take a step back to heal an important fracture, putting aside a significant dose of pride.

The possible scenarios are different, because for each of the parties involved there are reasons that can justify the choice to remain in the team as well as that of packing their bags, even in tight times. The simplest case is that of Marko, his position was strongly put into play on the eve of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, when according to several sources he was a hair's breadth away from being fired. The alarm then subsided during the weekend in Jeddah, complete with reassuring statements released to the media on Sunday evening by Marko himself.

Helmut Marko with Max VerstappeN. the two are closely linked

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The position of the “special” consultant of Red Bull (a figure present in the group's racing projects since the beginning as a trusted man of Dietrich Mateschitz) is linked to Max Verstappen, who came to his defense publicly with a not so coded message: “. ..if Marko were to leave the team I could leave too.”

But while for the eighty-year-old Austrian it is a question of deciding exclusively by evaluating the relationship with Horner, for Verstappen there is more. A possible exit of Marko for Max would be bad news, but at the same time it would allow him to challenge a clause included in his contract (expires at the end of 2028) which would allow Verstappen to free himself if Marko was not in the team's organization chart.

In the case of the world champion it is not just a question of relationships with Horner. Max knows he has the best technical package available until the end of 2025, then there will be the big question mark linked to the new power unit designed and built in Milton Keynes.

The Mercedes offer was confirmed by Toto Wolff without too many mysteries, the single-seater vacated by Lewis Hamilton would be available for Max in 2025. Next year the technical package does not offer great guarantees (what we are seeing today is a Mercedes in great difficulty) but there is the prospect of being able to be on the Mercedes when the new power units take to the track, a project in which at Brackley and Brixworth believe very much.

On paper, the best time to leave Red Bull would be at the end of 2025, but this possibility does not appear to exist for various reasons, both linked to the Red Bull situation and to Mercedes itself, called to plan the post-Hamilton season this season.

Verstappen will have to make the decision now and it won't be easy. On the one hand there is a 2025 World Cup to get your hands on (if everything goes as expected it could be the fifth title), on the other the prospect of starting a new cycle starting from 2026.

Adrian Newey, Chief Technology Officer, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The figure of Newey also enters the puzzle. As per practice, the Red Bull technical director does not expose himself to the media, but this affair would seem to have brought to light some disagreement in his relationship with Horner.

Newey considers himself, with good reason, to be a fundamental part of the Red Bull Racing project, and if an even stronger position than Horner (authorized by Yoovidhya) were to be confirmed it could be considered not the most welcome news for “Genius”.

As with Verstappen, Newey's reflections are also conditioned by a large-scale offer, in his case from Aston Martin. Lawrence Stroll has set the table in the best way to have him with him: a brand new impeccably structured headquarters, a new wind tunnel, financing from top teams and an offer that some rumors report as the most pharaonic ever made to a technician.

Horner is aware that everything around him could remain as before, just as everything could change. One of the most successful managers in the entire history of Formula 1 knows the rules of the game very well and will not be caught unprepared whatever happens.

If around him the fixed points with which he shared much of the successes achieved by Red Bull Racing are missing, he will be faced with a new challenge: winning, confirming that he is the soul of the team. Conversely, the track could present him with an unpleasant and, above all, unappealable verdict.