The race to succeed Pope Francis begins: who are the most likely?

Suffering from recurring health problems that Vatican spokesmen attribute to bronchitis, a severe flu and even respiratory problems, Pope Franciswho has difficulty walking and whose long speeches leave him breathless, was forced to suspend some of his appearances during the Easter week.

At 87 years old – 11 of them as Supreme Pontiff -, Jorge bergoglio He looks exhausted and weak while accumulating ailments typical of his age. It should not be forgotten that he lost the upper lobe of his right lung when he was just 21 years old, which reduces his breathing capacity, something that has become more complicated over the years. Furthermore, in recent years he has been forced to use a wheelchair due to an orthopedic knee ailment, and in June he underwent surgery for a delicate intestinal hernia operation.

Meanwhile, the Pope's efforts to reform the Catholic Church with decisions such as opening the doors to priests blessing homosexual couples has divided the curia. In Africadozens of bishops refuse to give said blessing, while in USA, Joseph Strickland was removed in November as bishop of Tyler, Texas for his criticism of Francis, whom the prelate – an enemy of abortion and blessing homosexual couples – even accused of “undermining the deposit of faith.”

Francisco appointed 7 out of 10 cardinals who are electors today, and always privileged liberal profiles.

The opposition climate had heated up in July, after the appointment, at the head of the dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, of an Argentine friend of Francisco, Monsignor Víctor Manuel Fernández, the open-minded and liberal mind behind papal thought. Fernández was in charge of signing, in December, the 'Fiducia supplicans' declaration that proposed the blessing to couples made up of people of the same sex, although not necessarily to their marriage.

On the opposite shore, nearly 200 German bishops meeting a year ago in Frankfurt released a declaration in which they approved the access of women to the diaconate, a first step towards becoming priestesses, and announced that, starting in 2026, They will bless marriages of same-sex couples. To top it off, they asked the Pope to review priestly celibacy.

In this climate of division, and with the pontiff's health clearly deteriorating, the Holy See is experiencing a “general atmosphere of the end of the reign,” as French Vaticanologist Jean-Marie Guénois, editor-in-chief of affairs, described it. religious figures from the newspaper Le Figaro, in an article this Monday.

Guénois quotes a veteran of the curia, when describ
ing Francis in this final period of his papacy. “Isolated, distrustful of his collaborators, he governs alone and his authoritarian character is affirmed more and more every day,” assures the source that, obviously, the journalist keeps under wraps. As an inevitable consequence of this climate, the race for the Pope's succession has already started.

Who are the favorites to succeed Pope Francis?

In regimes whose rulers serve a fixed term, as the end of the term approaches, speculation about their successor multiplies, while candidates begin to reveal their cards. This is not the case with the papacy, since the mandate is for life and any speculation or, even more serious, any more or less obvious candidacy, are seen as disrespectful to the current pontiff.

Even so, Francis's age and health problems have opened the game, and Vaticanologists are beginning to uncover their bets on the decision that the college of cardinals must make, when the time comes. Although it is made up of 221 cardinals, only 123 would vote today in the conclave, since the other 98 were over 80 years old, the limit age to be a voter.

“Even if he has not managed to carry out his reforms, Francisco cornered his opponents in numbers and power.”

Four names focus the attention of the European press that follows these matters, although they are not the only ones cited as favorites by Vaticanologists and diplomatic sources who know the ins and outs of the Holy See, and that EL TIEMPO consulted.

Cardinal Anders Arborelius, archbishop of Stockholm, is mentioned as papal by several sources, thanks to two great strengths. The first is that he is respected by both progressives and conservatives, because rather than emphasizing ideological positions, he promotes going deeper into the evangelism, and in the spiritual and interior construction of the human being.

The second advantage is coming from a country where Catholicism is not the majority, but could be strengthened If a Swede is elected Pope. As a child, Arborelius was not baptized as a Catholic and only converted at the age of 19. He is a renowned theologian who will turn 75 in September. Vaticanologist Guénois highlights that he is a man of “evident charisma.”

A young Italian cardinal could be the big surprise: the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, Pierbattista Pizzaballa. His 59 years – too young to be pope – may be seen as a disadvantage, but in light of Francis' health problems, the idea of ​​a healthy and vigorous pontiff may take off in the conclave.

Also attractive is his excellent relationship with Israel (he speaks Hebrew very fluently) and his willingness to mediate in the violent conflict in Gaza. Finally, another possible advantage: after three non-Italian pontificates (one Polish, one German and one Argentine), the position could return to the country that hosts the Vatican territory.

A strong candidate could be Cardinal Pietro Parolin, another Italian, not as young as Pizzaballa, but still under the 70-year-old bar (he is 69). He is the best-known figure in the Vatican today, after Pope Francis. Parolin has been Secretary of State of the Holy See for 11 years, and therefore has detailed knowledge of the interiors of power in Rome, but also, due to his continuous travels as head of Church diplomacy, he has shaken the hand of most of the cardinals on the planet.

Like the Swede Arborelius, he has managed to rise above the battle between conservatives and progressives, and this despite having helped Francis push his reform agenda. According to journalist Guénois, his name “is the one most hear
d in Rome for an eventual succession.”

Europe has another strong candidate, the Hungarian Péter Erdö, archbishop of Budapest, 72 years old, doctorate in canon law. He is respected by conservative sectors – which in the current situation is not necessarily an advantage – who value both his administrative abilities and his attachment to a certain theological classicism. However, his lack of warmth in personal treatment and charisma in public functions may weigh against him.

Neither Africa nor Latin America would have options

The problem with these favorites is precisely that they are favorites. As a European diplomat familiar with Vatican issues explained to EL TIEMPO this Monday, “nothing does more damage to a papal than appearing on the lists of candidates with the greatest option, a condition that is not well regarded among the cardinals, especially the more traditionalists.” But this time, the source adds, the traditionalists are not the majority, since Francis, who appointed 7 out of 10 cardinals who are electors today, always privileged liberal profiles.

There are more names on the table, such as that of French Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseille, whose organization of Francis' successful visit to that city in September has been praised by the Pope himself. Point against: he doesn't speak Italian.

After an Argentine Pope, it is very difficult for a Latin American to win again.

Asia has at least two names with some force: Charles Maung Bo, archbishop of Rangoon, Burma, who is president of the Asian bishops for a reason; and Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, from Sri Lanka, who, as Vaticanologist Guénois recalls, was already papal in 2013, when the conclave elected Francis.

And what about Africa? Everything indicates that, with its 17 votes in the conclave, that continent will weigh in the election, but the opposition of the vast majority of its prelates to blessing homosexual couples means that Francis' supporters, a majority bloc in the college of cardinals, They don't want to know about Africa this time. Regarding Latin America, with 18 votes in the conclave, it is very unlikely that, after the Argentine Pope, the region will win again.

But beyond the name, the big question is whether Francis will be succeeded by a continuer of his reforms or a Pope who reverses himself. Although it is early to affirm that the successor will maintain the reformist momentum, it is easy to rule out that whoever comes is a conservative enemy of the changes, many of which are still the subject of debate and not decisions adopted, awaiting the continuation, this year. , of the synod that in 2023 began to examine Francis' proposals.

Of the 123 electors enabled today to vote in the conclave, there are about 80 in one way or another favorable to the Pope's reformist agenda. That is why it is unlikely that a traditionalist will be elected. “Even if he has not managed to carry out the bulk of his reforms, Francisco has already managed to reduce the number and power of those who have opposed him so much,” a diplomatic source explained to EL TIEMPO.

As the Nicaraguan Adolfo Miranda Saenz detailed a few weeks ago, in an article published by several Latin American media, “some very influential traditionalist leaders (…), previously very powerful” are now “in minor positions or retired” and those who remain “are a minority.” ”.

For now, and while Francis' followers hope that he will recover from his losses and continue at the head of the Church for several more years, the only certain thing is where his body will rest once he breathes his last. He himself chose to be buried in the papal basilica of Santa María la Mayor, in Rome, dedicated to the Virgin, as Francisco told the Mexican channel N+ in December: “(The Virgin) is my great devotion, and I am going to be buried in Santa María la Mayor: the place is ready.”

MAURICIO VARGAS – EL TIEMPO ANALYST – [email protected] /Instagram @mvargaslinares