AWhen the French President renewed his offer for a strategic dialogue on nuclear deterrence in Munich a year ago, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) did not listen to him. He had already left the hall at the Bayerischer Hof because of other appointments. This year Emmanuel Macron himself is not coming to the Munich Security Conference. French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné is traveling to Munich with the idea that Europe could use a “second life insurance policy” in addition to America's expanded nuclear deterrent within NATO. That's what he said in an interview with the FAZ
In Paris it is pointed out that the French and British contributions to nuclear deterrence have been recognized since the Conference of Foreign Ministers in Ottawa in 1974.
“It has been in every NATO statement for half a century. “Now is a good time for a debate about what exactly that might mean,” says security expert Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations, who previously served as NATO assistant secretary general for defense investment. “France firmly supports the continued existence of American security guarantees in NATO.”
France has around 300 nuclear warheads
If America wants to become less involved in the future, consideration should begin now as to how the two European nuclear powers could strengthen the promise of protection for Europe. This could be done through increased capacities, although France, unlike Great Britain, does not only have submarine-based nuclear weapons.
France has around 300 nuclear warheads. Most of them are intended for ballistic missiles deployed from submarines. A second, air-launched component consists of cruise missiles that can be fired from Rafale fighter jets. The German-French-Spanish fighter aircraft system FCAS is designed to replace the Rafale fighter jets in France, which are needed for nuclear deterrence.
Grand emphasizes that geopolitical upheavals, such as Russian leader Putin's increased tendency to use nuclear threats in warfare, require a rethink. The federal government would have to be prepared to think beyond the familiar model of extended nuclear deterrence. “There is not a single universal model of successful nuclear deterrence.” Grand points to Japan and South Korea, for which there is an American guarantee of protection without storing nuclear bombs on their own soil.
Buy nuclear warheads from the USA?
Sweden could serve as a role model for Germany. The French security expert explains that President Macron consciously emphasized the “European dimension” of French deterrence during his recent state visit to Stockholm. In Paris, people not only welcomed Sweden's NATO membership as a very positive development, but also the fact that Sweden left the Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
The traffic light coalition in Berlin, however, is taking part in the Conference of the Parties as an observer. “This is not just an observer role, German contributions are also due and Germany is taking part in campaigns against nuclear deterrence,” says Grand. Security expert Maximilian Terhalle, who teaches as a visiting professor at the LSE in London, is also of the same opinion. The observer status makes the Federal Republic “a strategically unlikely actor to be taken seriously.”
“Peace policy is an ideological relic, which is why withdrawing from the ban treaty would be a late signal of German strategic ability to allies and enemies alike,” says Terhalle.
In his view, Germany should coordinate intensively with France, Great Britain and Poland and check whether they could buy “1,000 non-active strategic nuclear warheads with launchers” from the American president before the elections. “Too much precious time has been willingly wasted on these existential questions. Whether Biden or Trump, Europe must be protected by a comprehensive strategic nuclear force,” says Terhalle. Security expert Grand points to the end of arms control treaties such as the INF, which have also changed Europe's strategic situation.
People in Paris followed closely how Chancellor Scholz once again rejected strategic dialogue with France during Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's inaugural visit to Berlin.
Tusk, on the other hand, spoke about the modernization of the Russian nuclear arsenal in Königsberg. “Warsaw and Berlin are definitely within reach of Iskander missiles. That’s why it would be really good to implement all ideas and projects that would strengthen our security in this area,” said Tusk at the joint press conference. “I think President Macron’s words are very important. He has said that France is ready to make its nuclear capabilities available to all of Europe so that a common security system can emerge. We have had such signals for some time. We have to take this really seriously.” Immediately before his conversation with Scholz, Tusk had exchanged views with Macron in Paris.
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