The commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was changed from Valery Zaluzhny to Oleksandr Syrskyi. The case tells about a deep contradiction between the Ukrainian administration's stated strategy and the difficult situation at the front, writes HS fact checker John Helin.
Thursday dismissed commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhnyia has been regarded as the architect of Ukraine's successful defensive struggle. He has been president to Volodymyr Zelensky along with Ukraine's most visible faces in the international media.
However, disagreements had developed between the president and the general during the war, which erupted into the public in late autumn 2023.
Zalužnyi
said
in an interview with The Economist in November, that the war is at a stalemate. Zelenskyi
rushed to pass out
general's assessment, and the deputy chief of the president's office criticized the general publicly: “Is this the message we want to send?”
Soon, Politico reported that Zelenskyi completely bypassed Zalužnyi when communicating with other generals.
For the big one to the public, the tensions between Zelenskyi and Zalužnyi have only been revealed in recent months. In circles that actively follow the war, they have been known for a long time.
Tensions have been discussed in closed discussion circles from summer until 2022. Although the schism seems to have turned personal, the real reasons lie elsewhere. The conflict arises from the fact that political goals and military realities are difficult to reconcile.
In his recent statements, Zalužnyi has spoken about the stalemate at the front, rebuilding and defending the troops. This adapts a lot to the strategy that
westerners
actors
have suggested
For Ukraine for 2024. The dismissed general was also demanded Expansion of Ukraine's mobilization.
The political leadership, on the other hand, has continued to talk about counter-attacks, even the liberation of Crimea during the current year.
Assistant to the Office of the President Myhailo Podoljak reasoned about the change of commanders because they want to prevent the freezing of the front. At the same time, the critics are accused Zelensky for avoiding making a mobilization decision that is unpopular among the people.
Conflicts are rumored to have escalated earlier in the battles of Severodonetsk and Bahmut. Zalužnyi would have liked to withdraw from battles unfavorable to Ukraine, but the president insisted that Bahmut should not be withdrawn.
The dismissed commander Valeri Zalužnyi had spoken openly about the stalemate on the fronts.
To Zelensky the reluctance to withdraw and move to a defensive battle is partly understandable. The president fears that a more passive and slowly pushed back Ukraine will be forgotten in the capitals of Western countries and in the international media. For Ukraine's struggle for survival, it is of the utmost importance that the belief in Ukraine's chances of victory remain strong in the minds of the Western public.
However, the schism is not purely strategic. for the Japan Times have spoken European diplomats argued that Zelenskyi might see Zalužnyi as a threat to his position.
And maybe not entirely without reason.
The people's trust in the civil administration is of the Kyiv International Sociological Institute
by
decreased over the past year, while confidence in Zalužnyi and the armed forces has remained strong.
“
“The average age of Ukrainian frontline soldiers is high and morale is low.”
How about where does it come from that it was Lieutenant General Oleksandr Syrskyi who was appointed as Zalužnyi's successor?
The reason for the change is officially the president's desire to reform Ukraine's military leadership as a whole. Syrskyi was the commander of the ground forces even before the change, but the reason for the choice is probably above all the general's political loyalty.
His position as the leader of Bahmut's defense last year also spoke for this. However, the soldiers who fought under Syrskyi have been critical of the general's way of conducting a war of attrition.
Disappointed by the desperate defense and the losses suffered by the Ukrainians, the soldiers nicknamed their commander “the butcher”.
Naturally, as president, Zelensky has the right to change the commander of his armed forces, and Ukraine's military and political leadership cannot be in open conflict with each other. However, changing the popular Zalužnyi to the unpopular Syrskyi comes at a difficult time. The average age of Ukrainian frontline soldiers is high and morale is low. The Washington Post is made news that the units on the front are undermanned.
Russia, on the other hand, enjoys a clear artillery superiority and, despite its losses, has increased the pressure on several front blocks. In Avdijivka, the Russian offensive spearhead broke through Ukrainian defenses this week and is less than a kilometer from the city's main supply route.
It has its own challenge in coordinating Western strategic proposals with the Ukrainian political leadership's desire not to freeze the front lines.
At worst conflicts and failure to make difficult decisions could lead to military disasters. An example of this was seen in Kharkiv in the fall of 2022, when the Russian front, which had frustrated the mobilization, completely collapsed. Ukraine advanced 60 kilometers in just a few days.
Kyiv's stated goals and the situation of the Ukrainian troops on the frontlines seem to be at odds with each other at the moment. Replacing Zalužnyi with the politically loyal Syrskyi will not ease the imbalance, but may worsen it.
A good strategy adapts to military realities. However, Kyiv seems to be trying the opposite. It can backfire bitterly.
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