Survey shows an advantage of just 1.6% for the Republican pre-candidate against the current Democratic president
Former President of the United States Donald Trump and President Joe Biden appear technically tied in the electoral race for the White House in a survey carried out by AtlasIntel and released on Friday (9.Feb.2024). The Republican pre-candidate registered 43.9% of voting intentions, against 42.3% for the Democrat. The election is scheduled for November 5th.
The survey collected responses from 1,637 people from February 2 to 7 in an online form. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. Here's the full research (PDF – 8 MB).
There are also 5.2% who expressed a preference for the independent Robert Kennedy Jr., nephew of former president John F. Kennedy. He announced that he would leave the Democratic Party in October 2023.
While Trump is seen by respondents as more qualified to deal with issues such as the economy and combating illegal immigration, Biden is considered more capable on social issues, such as education and health, and environmental issues.
The Biden administration’s performance was considered “bad/terrible” by 50.5% of respondents. Another 16.4% classified it as “regular”, 32.6% as “excellent/good” and 0.2% were unable to answer.
At the same time, 52.4% said that Trump should be prevented from running due to the invasion of the US Congress on January 6, 2021. 48.5% believe that the legal proceedings against the former president are the result of a “political persecution”.
The former president's candidacy has not yet been formalized by the Republican Party. Trump disputes election caucuses with Nikki Haley. She was US ambassador to UN (United Nations) during the Trump administration (from 2017 to 2018) and governor of the State of South Carolina (from 2011 to 2017).
In the scenario where Haley competes with Biden, the former governor received 23% of voting intentions and the president, 41%.
Likewise, Biden was also not officially declared a candidate for the Democratic Party, although the tendency is for him to run for re-election. AtlasIntel tested a scenario in which former first lady Michelle Obama runs for President. In the survey, she beat Trump with 41.6% of the votes, compared to 39% for her rival.
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