'Russia cannot win if kyiv's allies behave sensibly'

Timothy Snyder is an American historian specializing in Central and Eastern Europe. Born in Dayton, Ohio, 54 years ago, he is a professor at Yale University and one of the leading experts on European history. In his work, the books stand out Lands of blood: Europe between Hitler and Stalin (Galaxia Gutenberg, 2011), which earned him the Hannah Arendt Prize for Political Thought (2013) and Black earth. The Holocaust as history and warning (Galaxia Gutenberg, 2015), as well as the book co-written with historian Tony Judt Thinking about the 20th century (Taurus, 2012). In About tyranny and The path to unfreedom (Galaxia Gutenberg, 2018), focuses on the most recent history to warn us about the dangers of the current antidemocratic drift.

Snyder, who has written for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Guardian, among other media, gave this interview at the Ukraine House on the Promenade in Davos, the central street of the Swiss town, during the Economic Forum. World. In it he addresses the war in that country, about which he says that “Russia cannot win if kyiv's allies behave sensibly”; the state of democracy, for which it considers that citizens must show an “everyday existential commitment”; and the future of humanity with the advent of new technologies. “It's a bit taboo to say it, but we are becoming less and less intelligent,” she believes.

Wars are battles that do not depend only on ability, but also on will. How do you see the struggle of wills between the main actors in the conflict in Ukraine. How do you see the attitude of the European Union (EU) towards the invasion of Ukraine?

I believe that European leaders have correctly thought about this war in historical terms, that they are right to make comparisons with the 1930s and to believe that this is a moment that determines the future of the European Union. It is a challenge not only for European countries, but for the idea of ​​the EU.

How do you see the United States, with the meandering isolationist sentiment within the Republican Party?

There is a clear majority among our elected representatives to support Ukraine. And there is also a very clear majority in our population. The problem is the system; It is very difficult to pass laws. The EU expects Ukraine to pass 250 laws this year. I would be happy if my Congress approved two this year. There is a problem with the political system, supported by a small but determined group of Republicans who, in my opinion, are actively opposed to this because they are essentially sympathetic to Putin-style systems.

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Let's talk about Putin. Data from SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) indicate that Russia invests 35% of its public spending on war. How long will Putin be able to sustain this level of effort?

I'm going to relate the question to the EU and the United States, because, as you suggest, the level of budgetary commitment that Russia maintains tells us how the war can end. What is the percentage for the United States? It is in the order of 5% of our defense budget. If we all doubled the budget, this war would be over. Russia cannot win this war, as long as Ukraine's allies behave sensibly.

Putin recently suffered a revolt led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, but managed to overcome it. How do you see his ability to stay in power?

It will seem stable until it all goes away. And it will be unpredictable until it happens. That's what dictatorships are like. But Prigozhin's attempted coup proved a couple of things. One is that when a change of power occurs in Russia it will be done the Russian way and will have nothing to do with us. The other is that this episode tells us something about the negotiations with Putin. Prigozhin negotiated with him, he had a deal and Putin killed him. It is worth remembering when some tell Ukrainians that they must negotiate with Putin. There is no one with whom you can seriously negotiate there.

How do you see Ukrainian society at the moment?

This is not Hollywood. People die. We have to recognize the weight of the sacrifice they are making before saying they remain determined. They don't give up.

This is a war related to the concept of democracy, which is eroding on a global scale. What are the main causes of this trend?

Democracy is not something we can take for granted. It has always been an exceptional situation. It requires constant reflection. If we do not reflect on ourselves, we will not have democracy. The nature of democracy is that we are capable of self-correction. But if we think that democracy is a process that survives on its own, then we have already forgotten what it is about.

What aspect of this deterioration worries you the most?

First, at least in the United States, inequality, which makes it difficult for people to believe that everyone belongs to the same society and makes it more difficult to have a single political conversation. A second problem is social media, which tends to distance people from the kinds of human conversations in which differences are understood. And the third problem is that in the world there is a coalition of hostile, active and sometimes quite effective antidemocratic actors. And the last problem, a little more subtle, has to do with ethics. And here Ukraine is very important. They are making sacrifices for democracy. And I think if we could absorb a little bit of that lesson, we'd be in better shape. I think in the last 30 years, people became convinced that democracy was a mechanism. And it's not really a mechanism. It is more of an everyday existential commitment.

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What do you think about generative artificial intelligence (AI). What could be its impact on democracy?

There were many things wrong with ancient Greek democracy, and there are many things ineffective in local Swiss democracy, but they have in common an element of human contact. Because the moment I see you, I recognize that you are going to have different interests than me and that, in some way, you are real like I am real. If we are on the internet, I don't have to consider you real, even if you are. And often, so to speak, you are not. You're often a bot or whatever. And the internet, even before AI, guides us in such a way that we are with people who agree with us. Then, from time to time, we are dosed with fear, because that is the pattern. AI makes all this worse.

As?

One risk is that AI serves as a bad therapist. The kind of therapist who tells you, “You're absolutely right.” You know, it's all your wife's fault. And this is worrying because democracy is possible thanks to a kind of gentle friction between people. We have to be able to withstand friction and know how to make it smooth.

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But we are moving away from that.

We spend a lot of time online. We lose real friction, and we also lose the ability to do it smoothly. Learning is not just informational. Learning involves some cognitive discomfort. Encountering things that are difficult for us, because we learn from them. And AI will take them away from us. This is something that's a little taboo to say, but we're all getting less and less intelligent. We are on the defensive. If we became smarter, we would be able to accept criticism.

There is criticism against Joe Biden's administration for alleged double standards in Ukraine and Gaza. Do you think the United States should have put more pressure on the Israeli government to respond to the Hamas attack in a more gentle way toward civilians?

Before we start criticizing governments, we have to be honest. The conflict in Gaza is very different from that in Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine is morally very simple. And it is also militarily much simpler because it is between two armies. The ethics of the Israel-Gaza conflict are much more complicated. And the solution, unlike Russia-Ukraine, cannot be a military solution. It has to be political. It is normal for Israel to react in some way. We cannot forget how horrible the Hamas attacks were. But the biggest problem for Israel is an endless war. And I am concerned that the people who run Israel, let me put it mildly, are not going to come to the conclusion on their own that there must be a political solution. That idea has to come from outside. I think American policy should go in that direction.

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ANDREA RIZZI
LA NACIÓN (ARGENTINA) – GDA
X: @LANACION