The ruble exchange rate may weaken in 2024 if the decree on the mandatory sale of part of foreign currency earnings by exporters is not extended. Economist and former senior vice president of Otkritie Bank Konstantin Tserazov spoke about this on February 1 in a conversation with “Gazeta.Ru“
He clarified that the ruble exchange rate is determined by the supply and demand of the currency. Thus, after the start of the special military operation of the Russian Federation, importers were the main buyers, and foreign market participants were the main sellers, so the Central Bank of the Russian Federation took measures to stabilize the situation.
However, over time it became clear that an overly strong ruble was a problem, so the requirements for exporters were relaxed. At the same time, restrictions on the movement of capital remained the same. The restoration of imports, in turn, led to an increase in demand for foreign currency, as well as an increase in budget expenditures.
“The Central Bank tried to influence the exchange rate by raising the rate, but this measure turned out to be not very effective, therefore, from October 11, 2023, the norm for the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by Russian exporters was returned by decree of the President of the Russian Federation [Владимира Путина]. And the very next day the ruble began a protracted growth that lasted until mid-January,” Tserazov emphasized.
If the decree is not extended, the ruble could weaken to 105–110 per dollar. The economist admitted that the requirements for exporters could be relaxed, then the rate could drop to 100 rubles by the end of the year. If the “full status quo” is maintained, the Russian currency may even strengthen, but this scenario is unlikely, he concluded.
The day before, BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov predicted in a conversation with Izvestia that in February the dollar could trade in the range of 87.35-93.4 rubles, the euro – 94-101 rubles, the yuan – 12-12.9 rubles. Among the key events that will affect the ruble quotes this month, he also named the possible extension until the end of the year of requirements for exporters on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings.
On January 25, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin said that the measure introduced by the Russian government on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings had shown its effectiveness. He noted that with the adoption of this decision, excessive volatility disappeared from the companies' operations.
On October 11 last year, it became known that Putin signed a decree introducing a six-month requirement for mandatory repatriation and sale of foreign currency earnings on the Russian market by individual exporters. At that time, the dollar was trading at 100 rubles, the euro at 106, and the yuan at 13.7. At the close of trading on January 24, 2024, the American currency was worth 88.6 rubles, the European currency was 96.6, and the Chinese currency was 12.3.
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