Dhe Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) has a good chance of entering the Thuringian state parliament at the beginning of September. The Insa survey institute sees the new party at 17 percent straight away. This emerges from a survey published on Wednesday on behalf of Funke Medien Thüringen. This would put the new party of the former left-wing politician Wagenknecht in third place, with similarly high values as the CDU (20 percent) and the Left Party of Thuringia's Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow (15 percent). The AfD is still in first place in Insa's Sunday question, with 31 percent.
All three traffic light parties in government in the federal government would have to worry about returning to the state parliament. Accordingly, Insa sees the SPD in Thuringia at six percent, the Greens at five and the FDP at only three percent. This means that all three parties run the risk of failing at the five percent hurdle.
However, the traffic light parties in Thuringia have historically never been as strong as elsewhere. Since reunification, the Greens have missed entry into the state parliament in Erfurt three times and the FDP four times. In the last election in 2019, the SPD received 8.2 percent of the vote. At that time, the Greens got 5.2 percent, the FDP got five percent.
Since the previous Insa survey was conducted in November, a comparison with the current survey is only possible to a limited extent. Accordingly, the BSW would withdraw voters from almost all parties.
Forsa sees BSW below the five percent hurdle
According to the survey, a majority formation in Thuringia would now be possible again without the AfD and the Left Party in the Free State. Provided that the CDU, the SPD and the Greens would enter into a coalition with the new BSW party.
Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome. A thousand Thuringians aged 18 and over were interviewed for the Insa survey between January 8th and 15th. The survey's maximum margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, both upside and downside.
The survey institute Forsa recently came to a significantly different survey result for the channels RTL and NTV. Accordingly, Forsa sees the BSW in Thuringia at only four percent, i.e. below the five percent hurdle. Forsa surveyed 1,253 eligible voters between January 6th and 10th.
It is still unclear whether the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance can run in the state elections in Thuringia and in the elections in Saxony and Brandenburg. BSW chairwoman Amira Mohamed Ali said before Christmas that it was a big challenge to set up state associations, find candidates and finance the election campaigns. It has now become known that a couple from East Germany donated one million euros to the newly founded party, as a spokeswoman confirmed a report in the magazine “Spiegel”.
If the BSW were to run in the state elections in East Germany, the party would also have a chance of success in Brandenburg. Accordingly, the Insa survey institute sees the Wagenknecht party there at 13 percent in a new survey. Here too, however, the Forsa survey institute recently came to a significantly lower value of four percent.
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