Former US President Donald Trump swept the Republican caucuses in Iowa with 51 percent of the vote, followed by Florida governor Ron Desantis at 21 percent, former Florida ambassador and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley at 19 percent and by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at seven. This is one of the largest victories recorded in the first stage of the primaries to choose the candidate for the White House for a party that has to decide on a candidate other than the outgoing president.
The result is very large but not surprising: Trump is clearly leading in all polls on the Republican primaries, both in Iowa and nationally. However, many fear the effect that the various ongoing legal proceedings against him could have on his new run for the White House.
Although the road to the primaries is long, the vote in Iowa traditionally represents the first appointment and for this reason represents an important test capable of launching or sinking candidates. In 1976, for example, the then Democratic governor of Georgia Jimmy Carter focused on the Iowa caucuses to make himself better known and to be considered in the game. The strategy worked: he won in Iowa, won the primaries and in November was elected president of the United States, beating outgoing president Gerald Ford.
However, the winner of the Iowa caucus was not always the winner of the primaries. In 2020, for example, the young mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg emerged victorious for the Democrats while in 2016, among the Republicans, Donald Trump was defeated by the Texan senator Ted Cruz. On this occasion, however, the polls and the particularly large victory seem to point towards a Trump victory
Even though they don't get much attention, parties that have an outgoing president in his first term and are preparing to run for re-election also hold primaries. These are usually subdued votes against flag opponents, but Democrats and President Joe Biden are also holding primaries. In Iowa they voted exclusively by post and the results will be announced at the beginning of March, but clearly no particular surprises are expected.
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