01/15/2024 – 21:01
A study prepared by the Federation of Industries of Minas Gerais (Fiemg) concluded that taxing purchases worth less than US$50 on foreign websites could generate greater revenue than projected by the government. The business entity's numbers are around R$14.6 billion, in the most negative scenario, and R$19.1 billion, in the most positive, enough to offset the payroll tax relief.
The study is based on a projection made by the Federal Revenue Service last year, applying a 28% rate to products. Due to an expected drop in purchases, as a result of the application of taxation that is now zero, the Revenue estimated a collection of R$ 2.8 billion (in case of a 30% drop in purchases).
If purchases fell even further, in a scenario of a 70% drop, revenue would be R$1.23 billion.
The president of Fiemg, Flávio Roscoe, states that the Revenue number is underestimated and does not consider a possible exchange of consumption made today on foreign websites for products manufactured in Brazil.
“If consumption on these sites drops by 50%, which I don't believe will happen, revenue will go up, but not by much. There will be an activation of domestic consumption, which will raise more revenue. There are two movements”, says the businessman. “Today, neither packaging nor logistics, nothing stays in Brazil. Everything comes from outside. It is a harmful practice.”
According to Fiemg's calculations, if commerce through these sites does not fall, even with taxation, the extra revenue will be R$19.1 billion. If it falls by 45% (the most adverse scenario), the revenue would be R$10.5 billion. Another R$4.1 billion would come from taxes collected from the exchange for domestic products.
“In the worst case scenario, we are expecting an extra revenue of R$15 billion for the government”, he states.
The numbers consider a 28% federal tax rate on a volume of US$13.1 billion in purchases of up to US$50 on foreign websites. The value was verified in 2022 and corresponds to R$68.2 billion (with an average exchange rate of R$5.22 that year), coming only from websites that currently participate in the Federal Revenue Service's Remessa Conform program.
In the second half of last year, the IRS recorded a 34% drop in small-value purchases from websites abroad and credits this movement to the incidence of ICMS (state tax), which now has a standard rate of 17%. If the establishment of a federal rate of 28% succeeds, total taxation would rise to 45%.
“I don’t believe the fall was due to (increase in) value of the merchandise, but by including another step in the purchase process. It's not because of the 17%, but because of the psychological factor (of taxation). And I believe he already gave himself all at that moment”, says Roscoe.
The government and Congress are considering imposing taxation to finance payroll tax relief, which, according to information from the Ministry of Finance, will cost R$16 billion in 2024 and is not included in the Budget. The projection is that the exemption for the 17 economic sectors served by the program will cost R$12 billion, and for small municipalities, another R$4 billion.
On New Year's Eve, the government issued a provisional measure revoking the policy and instituting, from April 1st, a gradual reinstatement of the sectors served. Municipalities were excluded from the benefit.
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