While companies strive to incorporate the innovations of artificial intelligence into their work systems, called to automate a large number of tasks that humans perform today, analyzes are proliferating on what its impact will end up being on the world of work. The weak point of the predictions is the early phase in which AI is still in, but if they are not too far off, the way in which companies are organized will undergo a change. The latest to warn of this revolution in the making has been the International Monetary Fund: it estimates that in advanced economies around 60% of jobs are exposed in some way to risks related to AI, a percentage that drops to 40% in the case of emerging economies and only 26% in low-income countries, “less prepared” to take advantage of its advantages, according to the IMF.
The study raises a key dilemma: will AI be a complementary technology that will facilitate the work of highly qualified employees or has it come to replace them and leave them without jobs and salaries? The answer is neither black nor white: approximately half of workers “may be negatively affected,” while the rest would improve their productivity, by having tools that would facilitate their work, but without replacing them. That is, the best-trained employees, who in other evolutions had continued to be necessary – the Luddites who destroyed the machines that threatened their jobs in the Industrial Revolution during the 19th century were workers – are now not fully protected by their skills. “Unlike previous waves of automation, which had their greatest impact on middle-skilled workers, the displacement risks of AI extend to those receiving higher salaries,” the IMF notes.
Those who earn the most are vulnerable, but those who ride the wave instead of being submerged in it, will emerge stronger. “The benefits of AI will likely fall disproportionately on higher-income earners, especially in countries like India and, to a lesser extent, the United States, where complementarity is steadily increasing in the highest-paid segment.”
No one seems to be entirely safe from becoming an accessory. Although that, paradoxically, will be positive for the world economy if you look at the big numbers. “We are on the verge of a technological revolution that could boost productivity, promote global growth and increase incomes around the world,” says the entity's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva. There is, however, a dark side. ”It could replace jobs and deepen inequality,” warns the Bulgarian leader.
That workers in less advanced countries may continue to be needed for longer may be good news for them in the short term, but not for their economies, which may be left behind. “Many of these countries do not have the infrastructure or skilled workforce to reap the benefits of AI, increasing the risk that the technology could worsen inequality between nations over time,” the report maintains.
Different strategies
How should the State act in the face of this phenomenon? The response, according to the IMF, must be adapted to the circumstances. While the most advanced and most developed emerging economies must focus on improving regulation – something in which the EU has been a pioneer –, reallocate labor that is replaced by machines, and protect those who are laid off and lose Thus, their source of income, emerging and developing markets must focus on building their own digital infrastructure and training people capable of using it to bridge the digital divide and contain the loss of income due to their lower productivity.
“In most scenarios, AI will probably worsen overall inequality,” Georgieva acknowledges. In her opinion, it will be necessary to formulate policies to maintain social peace. “It is crucial that countries establish comprehensive social safety nets and offer retraining programs for vulnerable workers.”
An avalanche of forecasts is starring in these first stages of the landing of the most advanced artificial intelligences. This same year, the OECD published that threatened jobs represent 27% of the workforce in its member countries. And the American investment bank Goldman Sachs estimated that 300 million jobs will disappear totally or partially due to the emergence of AI. The affected positions are very varied, from banking employees, stock market operators – replaced by algorithms -, multiple office jobs, medical personnel – AI can help diagnose cancer and health problems – as well as others for which Higher training is not essential, like customer service – replaced by chatbots – or drivers – if the autonomous car becomes widespread.
For now, the use of the conditional surrounds every prediction of the experts, even in the case of those from the IMF. When he begins to assess the impact by age groups, he highlights that young people are more familiar with the use of technologies, which could help them handle AI more easily, but at the same time he warns that the demand for young people with education top could decline if their profiles become expendable.
In its pages there also appears an ideal scenario in which the benefits would outweigh the harms. ”If productivity increases are large enough, income levels could rise for most workers.” Free time could also increase. Artificial intelligence has resurrected the old aspiration to continue reducing the working day. The question is whether this new era of the reign of leisure in which machines do the work instead of humans without sweat, hours, or complaints, can be so prosperous as to reward enough to the losers of the change.
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