Why is organized crime a threat to Latin America in 2024?

2024 will be an intense year for Latin America in an uncertain international context. We will have to focus on the evolution of the Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Palestine, China-Taiwan conflict, the strategic rivalry between the United States and China, the greater power of the so-called non-state actors, and a true “electoral tsunami” with around 80 electoral processes in about 70 countries.

(Also: The harsh crisis that Ecuador is experiencing, a country in a state of war due to drug traffickers)

At an economic level, the projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2024 are around 2.3% of GDP. The region would grow less than the world average and would head into a new lost decade (2014-2023), growing at less than 1% of annual GDP.

This year will be neither “pink tides” nor “blue waves” for the region. It is anticipated that there will be a weakening of the vote to punish the ruling parties, a greater balance between continuity and change, which will generate greater ideological diversity of the leaders. The prevalence of left-wing or center-left governments (“pink tide”) that existed in Latin America at the beginning of 2023 was reduced by the victories of right-wing or center-right leaders in Paraguay, Ecuador and Argentina, and something similar could happen during this year in the six presidential elections.

(You can read: 'Fito' and 'Capitán Pico', the escaped criminals who threaten security in Ecuador)

At the level of political risks 2024, our report once again reveals that The main one is organized crime, insecurity and drug trafficking. According to the IV Global Study on Homicide by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), organized crime is responsible for around half of the homicides in Latin America and the Caribbean; Furthermore, eight out of ten countries with the highest homicide rates in the world are located in Latin America and the Caribbean.

A symptomatic case is Ecuador, a once relatively safe country that has become a transit point for drugs and fertile ground for criminal organizations. The figures for this country are chilling: in just 5 years the homicide rate increased by around 800 percent, reaching 46 per 100,000 inhabitants. Record levels of cocaine production in Peru, Bolivia and Colombia have ended up increasing violence between local and international criminal groups in Ecuador.

The second place of political risks is occupied by the increase in corruption and impunity, with a region stagnant in the matter and with countries like Uruguay, Chile and Costa Rica – traditionally performing well – that have been victims of these episodes. The vulnerability in the control of territorial borders and the low levels of judicial coordination have been facilitating the actions of illegal actors. On the other hand, in recent years multiple presidents have been convicted by justice for corruption: Juan Orlando Hernández (Honduras), Rafael Correa (Ecuador), Elías A. Saca (El Salvador), Cristina Kirchner (Argentina), Otto Pérez Molina (Guatemala), Horacio Cartés (Paraguay), among others. In terms of political culture, It will be necessary to review incentive structures to modify social behavior that allow breaking the intertwined dynamics of acceptance and tolerance towards corruption..

(Keep reading: This is how the violence in Ecuador reflects a deep-rooted crisis in Latin America)

Democratic disaffection occupies third place this year, with an alarming sign: more than half of Latin Americans are indifferent to the political regime, as long as the government solves their problems, giving more space to populist and authoritarian leaderships. According to the latest report of the 2022 Democracy Index in the region, only Uruguay, Costa Rica and Chile are full democracies, and Panama, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and the Dominican Republic are classified as incomplete democracies. Of the rest, eight countries are hybrid regimes (Peru, Paraguay, Ecuador, Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, Bolivia and Guatemala) and 4 are authoritarian regimes (Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela). Compared to the other regions analyzed in the index, Latin America presents the greatest democratic recession during the last two decades.

The list of risks is followed by governance under pressure and rapid loss of support from leaders, leaving the so-called “honeymoon” of the first year of government (4th) in the past. A profound crisis of representation is affecting confidence in traditional political parties and shifting expectations towards new leaderships with little structure and management experience that prevent them from having solid bases of governance when they come to power..

(Also: Will Bernardo Arévalo be able to assume the presidency of Guatemala this Sunday?)

The increase in migratory flows is in fifth place. Currently, the world is home to 7.7 million Venezuelan migrants, of which 6.6 million reside in Latin America, concentrating mainly in Colombia (2.9 million) and Peru (1.5 million). The increase in migratory flows has put additional pressure on public services in Latin America. Population growth has overwhelmed health, education and housing systems, posing considerable challenges for governments at local and national levels. The lack of sufficient resources to satisfy these growing demands has generated social tensions and conflicts between migrants and receiving communities, especially in countries such as Colombia, Chile, Ecuador and Peru..

The radicalization of social protests (6th), in a mediocre economic scenario and high levels of distrust towards public institutions, appears again as a political risk. Although the protests were “anesthetized” in 2020 due to quarantines, in 2021, 2022 and 2023 they reappeared in different countries. Brazil, Peru and Panama have been some examples that protests and their radicalization continue to be a political risk in the region. Looking ahead to 2024 with a slowing economy, high levels of public mistrust and governance difficulties, protests and their radicalization may return.

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International instability, with different sources of conflict, is ranked seventh. The world has entered a stage of less containment of conflicts and the powers seem to have less capacity to channel global tensions. While the United States and China are in a strategic confrontation, Russia is emerging as a destabilizing element at the global level and the multilateral system led by the United Nations is powerless in the face of the unprecedented humanitarian crisis in Gaza..

The deterioration of the business climate due to a lack of legal certainty and policies to attract foreign investment occupies eighth place. However, the favorable conditions of the region due to its high availability of critical minerals and high potential for the development of renewable energies, measures contrary to the freedom to develop businesses, the lack of a more robust discourse to encourage the attraction of investment still persist. foreign investment and the excess of administrative procedures for the development of projects.

The impact of technology on politics as a form of manipulation of public opinion appears in ninth place. The latest elections in Latin America are a reflection of a society that demands changes as fast as the information they receive. This new citizenry, loaded with information, has mobilized its support for leaders who can build a story that is easy to digest and viral.

Finally, vulnerability to climate change (10th). This vulnerability puts at risk relevant issues such as food security, the scarcity of water resources, greater difficulty in facing extreme climate events and an increasingly complex adaptation capacity of the most disadvantaged communities. In addition, we will have to look carefully at the El Niño phenomenon, which entails extreme natural phenomena.

(You can read: How did Ecuador come to be in check due to criminal gangs?)

It's not all bad news. Latin America has a unique opportunity to take the leap: the critical minerals for the economy of the future are found in the region, such as copper, cobalt, nickel or lithium, where Bolivia, Argentina and Chile concentrate close to 60% of the reserves. global. This is understood by the great powers, which have continued to look closely at the region through global initiatives such as the Alliance for Economic Prosperity in the Americas (APEP) of the United States, the Belt of the Rua and Silk of China and the initiative Global Gateway of the European Union. The political leadership has the floor.

DANIEL ZOVATTO
Senior researcher UC International Studies Center

JORGE SAHD K.
Director UC International Studies Center