USA: what are the caucuses and how important are the Iowa caucuses in the race for the White House?

This 2024, the Republicans of the state of Iowa They will be the first to vote to elect the presidential candidate, who will compete in the November 5 elections.

Although the primary process in the US will only formally begin until January 15, It is estimated that Republican candidates have spent almost $300 million on campaign advertising or promotion. to try to win the presidential nomination and close to 50% has been allocated exclusively to the state of Iowa, according to data from the consulting firm AdImpact.

In numerical terms, the impact of the caucus in Iowa is minimal (only 40 of the country's 2,469 delegates who will elect the Republican presidential candidate correspond to it), but this is one of the most representative events of the presidential race. Because? Here are the keys to this first electoral appointment.

What is a caucus and how is it different from primaries?

The English word 'caucus' means 'electoral meeting'. Caucuses in the United States are electoral assemblies in which citizens gather at the voting center of their corresponding district to discuss out loud and vote on a piece of paper who they want to be the presidential candidate of a party.

They are also the first step in a months-long process to select delegates, who will attend the party's national conventions in the middle of the year, where each party's presidential candidate is chosen.

Unlike primaries, caucuses are not organized by the state but by the parties themselves and are carried out by volunteers. Furthermore, while primaries are like a full day of electoral voting, caucuses are organized on a specific date and at a specific time.

Next Monday in Iowa will be at 7:00 p.m. local time (01:00 GMT on Tuesday) in some 700 centers in that state, which this year will be divided into 1,657 electoral districts.

Why is the Iowa caucus important?

Iowa is like a kind of great sieve of survivors, he explains to France 24 in Spanish David P. Redlawskchair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Delaware and author of “A citizen's guide to the political psychology of voting.

The caucuses or assemblies in that state are seen as the first great snapshot of voter support for the candidates. After spending months campaigning, this is the first big test of the impact of his messages.

“Iowa is a state that absolutely influences the entire electoral process and part of the reason is that candidates who try and fail in that state abandon the race,” says the expert, who has focused his research on campaigns and the role of information in voters' decision making.

“Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has just renounced his aspiration to be the Republican candidate. He didn't even wait for Monday's vote, but he was campaigning. He was trying to build a campaign and what he learned is that there was no place for him. That's a lot of what candidates learn in Iowa, so the goal is not always to win Iowa, but to try to have a good first performance,” he adds.

On the other hand, a victory in Iowa can give a crucial boost to a candidate's campaign at a crucial early stage, show the rest of the country how each candidate is faring in a real election and help him or her garner media attention. .

Why is Iowa first?

Iowa was positioned as the first election date on the American primary calendar due to a “historic accident” in 1972, explains Redlawsk.

After the Democratic Party revised its candidate selection procedures after experiencing difficulties in the 1968 elections, Iowa was the first state to be able to schedule its nominating contest. And, once candidates and media flocked to Iowa, spending huge amounts of money, the state has made sure to maintain its country-first status.

What parties are holding the caucus in Iowa this year?

Both the Republican and Democratic Parties will hold caucuses in Iowa, but only the Republican Party has a binding impact on the presidential race.

Unlike previous years, the Democratic caucus will be held to merely discuss party administrative matters and begin the process of electing delegates to the national convention. Instead, Iowa Democrats will choose their candidate through mail-in voting, with results released on March 5, the day known as 'Super Tuesday.'

For their part, Republicans decided to keep the start of their nomination in Iowa, a state where almost 90% of the population is white.

“So it doesn't really matter what the Democrats do in 2024 in Iowa. In contrast, the Republicans said 'we like to start in Iowa, we're going to start over in Iowa and we're not going to change it,'” says the expert. David P. Redlawsk.

Who are the candidates?

Current President Joe Biden faces little opposition in the Democratic Party in his re-election campaign, but, as this year the Democrats chose to change their calendar, the race in Iowa will be centered on the Republican Party, in which, according the surveysformer President Donald Trump has a lead of around 35%.

Trump is followed in that state by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley.

The three, especially the last two, have spent several days of intense campaigning in that state in the Midwest of the country, with rallies to ask for support after spending millions in advertising to gain position in the presidential nomination.

The other candidates of the party, who remain in the race, from which several of the candidates have gradually deserted, are the businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley, the former governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson and Vivek Ramaswamy, businessman and political commentator.

What's at stake in Iowa?

Iowa, also considered an undecided or swing state, has only 40 delegates out of the total of 2,469 of the 50 states in the country, which are the ones that finally choose the party's presidential candidate. In Iowa they are distributed proportionally to the votes obtained by each candidate.

With this minimal representation, just 1.6% of the total delegates, the real impact for the campaigns is in the recognition that the candidates acquire.

The results of these assemblies usually give a boost to the winners and those who obtain good results or exceed expectations; In addition, they reduce the number of pre-candidates by removing those who obtain the worst results from the race.

In this regard, the Argentine political scientist Aníbal Pérez-Liñánprofessor of Political Science and Global Affairs and director of the Kellogg Institute of International Studies at the University of Notre Dame (USA) says:

“Iowa has little impact on the formal process because the number of delegates is very small, but it has a great symbolic effect because it is the first primary. Together with New Hampshire, they are the first and they are the ones that tend to generate the greatest impact”

Additionally, Iowa is in the group of states known as pendulum or hinge states, that is, those that can change sign and in which the candidates concentrate their greatest efforts because they are the ones that can ultimately end up defining the results of the presidential contest.

Can Iowa predict the winner?

Whoever wins Iowa is not guaranteed to be their party's candidate or become the president of the United States. In fact, only three have achieved both: Democrats Jimmy Carter, in 1976; and Barack Obama, in 2008; and Republican George W. Bush, in 2000.

“Kings are not made in Iowa, but contenders are separated from pretenders. Normally, there are a large number of candidates at the beginning of the process (…) and the job really is to separate the people who are serious candidates,” the professor from the university tells EFE. University of Iowa Timothy Hagle.

With AP, Efe, Reuters and local media