DThe electric car manufacturer Tesla is largely stopping production at its German location in Grünheide for two weeks because components are being delivered late. This news from Friday shows how serious the situation is: The passage through the Red Sea, one of the most important trade routes, has been under attack for weeks. Furniture giant Ikea had previously warned customers that pieces of furniture would arrive late or would not be available at all for the time being. There will be a lot more news like this in the next few days.
The Yemeni Houthi rebels are to blame, who, with Iranian help, have been hijacking cargo ships on their way through the Red Sea or firing at them with drones and missiles since November. Now a US-led coalition has struck back and destroyed rebel positions in Yemen. Is that enough to deter the Houthis? They spontaneously announced retaliation. The situation escalated for the first time on December 15th. Despite the American-led naval ships subsequently dispatched, the rebels continued their attacks with renewed ferocity.
Unrest on the maritime trade routes
Rarely has there been so much unrest on the world's oceans. Iranian soldiers have just captured an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman. After a long period of calm, Somali pirates attacked two ships. And as if that wasn't enough trouble, ships are backing up in front of the Panama Canal. The canal operator has to save on the water that carries the freighters through the locks. Lake Gatun, where the water comes from, is drying out faster than expected – climate change is taking its toll. Therefore, fewer and less loaded ships will be allowed through in the foreseeable future. The Plan B of some shipping companies to make the route through the Red Sea instead is being torpedoed by the Houthis. Until the drones flew, 11 percent of maritime trade volume and around a third of global container freight passed through the Red Sea. 6 percent passes through the Panama Canal. The shipowners are changing course when they can.
As if they had suspected it, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) launched the IMF Portwatch website, which uses satellites to collect data signals from 120,000 cargo ships and link them with data from more than 1,000 ports and sensitive straits. Artificial intelligence constructs a current picture of global maritime trade from the mass of data and simulates the economic consequences if trade is shaken like it is now.
Traffic through the Suez Canal is declining dramatically
Portwatch's elegant graphics paint a clear picture: since December 16th, shipping traffic through the Red Sea, which separates Africa from the Arabian Peninsula, has declined significantly. Almost 80 cargo ships usually pass through the southeastern entrance to the Red Sea called Bab al-Mandab every day. Now there are 45 ships left. According to Portwatch, trading volume has almost halved from more than 5 million metric tons to 2.8 million metric tons. The Bab al Mandab strait – in German “Valley of Tears” – has achieved dubious fame because the Yemeni rebels launch their attacks in this bottleneck.
Market observers fear that wheat in particular could become scarce if cargo ships do not have free passage. Vincent Clerc, head of container shipping company Maersk, warned in the Financial Times that the shipping shock was threatening global growth and increasing inflationary pressures. It is completely uncertain when the classic routes can be used again. The UN Security Council not only called on the Houthis to stop the attacks, but also to release the 25 crew members of the Japanese car freighter that was hijacked in November and is docked in the port of Hodeidah.
#Houthi #attacks #supply #chain #chaos
