When and how China lost Taiwan (and what is the current status of the 'rebel island')

Taiwan holds presidential elections this Saturday in which its future is at stake.

At the center of the debate is a culminating issue that has ignited Taiwanese politics for decades: China's claim.

Beijing sees Taiwan as a rebellious province that will be reunited with the mainland sooner or later.

But many Taiwanese disagree.

Taiwan sees itself as an independent, democratically governed country, although it has never officially declared its independence.

Several experts have pointed out that the dispute between Beijing and Taipei threatens to become an armed confrontation with profound international implications.

“What path are they taking? The path to war!” accused Jaw Shaw-kong, running mate of Hou Yu-ih, the presidential candidate of the main opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT).

“It is the path that leads Taiwan to danger, the path that leads to uncertainty!” he continued.

The dart was aimed at Lai Ching-te, candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) who leads the polls.

Ching-te, also known as William Lai, is the current vice president of Taiwan. He left medicine to focus on a successful political career in which he has held almost all of the most important political positions on the island.

He has come to describe himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence” and China sees him as a threat.

His opponent, Hou Yu-ih, who follows him closely in the polls, sells himself as a moderate candidate who believes in dialogue with the Chinese Communist Party to reduce tensions with the Asian giant.

He has sold the presidential elections as a choice between peace and war.

But when and how did China lose the “rebel island”?

Austronesian peoples and colonizations

The first inhabitants of Taiwan are believed to have been Austronesian people, coming from Oceania, Southeast Asia, and parts of what is now southern China.

In 232 AD, the island was first recorded in Chinese archives, after China sent an expeditionary force to explore the site.

This is a fact that Beijing uses to support its territorial claims.

Taiwan briefly became a Dutch colony between 1624 and 1661.

It was later administered by the Qing dynasty, the last Chinese imperial dynasty, from 1883 to 1895.

From the beginning of the 17th century, significant numbers of migrants began arriving in Taiwan from China, many escaping political turmoil or hardship.

Most of them were Hoklo Chinesefrom the province of Fujian, or Hakka Chinese, from Canton.

The descendants of these two waves of migration make up the majority of the current population.

Cession to Japan and civil war

In 1895, after Japan's victory in the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing government had no choice but to cede Taiwan to Japan.

But, after its resounding defeat in World War II, Japan had to relinquish control of all the territories it had occupied in China.

The then Republic of China, one of the winning countries in that war, began to govern Taiwan with the consent of its allies the United States and the United Kingdom.

But China's civil war, which began in 1927, continued after World War II. and, a few years later, Chiang Kai-shek's government troops were defeated by communist forces led by Mao Zedong.

Chiang and what remained of his nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) government then took refuge on the island of Taiwan in 1949, proclaiming the Republic of China in that territory, maintaining that they remained its legitimate government.

This group of people, known as mainland Chinese and numbering about a million and a half people, dominated Taiwanese politics for many years, although it only represents 14% of the population.

Democratization process

After inheriting a de facto dictatorship and facing pressure from anti-regime society and a nascent democratic movement, Chiang's son, Chiang Ching-kuo, began to allow a process of democratization on the island.

He President Lee Teng-huiknown as the “father of democracy” in Taiwan, led the constitutional changes that led to political opening and eventually led to the election of the first non-KMT president, Chen Shui-bian, in 2000.

After decades of hostile rhetoric, China and Taiwan began building bridges in the 1980s.

China advocated the formula known as “one country, two systems,” under which Taiwan could exercise significant autonomy if it agreed to reunification with China.

This system was implemented in Hong Kong, in a way as a sample for the Taiwanese people.

The offer was rejected by Taiwan, but the territory relaxed restrictions on visits and investments in mainland China.

Also, in 1991, he proclaimed the end of the war with the People's Republic of China.

There were brief talks between both sides through unofficial representatives, although Beijing's insistence that the ROC on Taiwan is illegitimate did not allow for government-to-government contact.

Anti-secession law of 2005

The election of Chen Shui-ban as president of Taiwan in 2000 alarmed Beijing, as he openly supported independence.

Chen was re-elected in 2004, prompting China to pass the so-called anti-secession law in 2005, which declared China's right to resort to “non-peaceful measures” against Taiwan if it attempted to officially secede from mainland China.

In 2008, Ma Ying-jeou was elected president and sought to improve relationsparticularly through economic agreements.

Eight years later, in 2016, she was elected Tsai Ing-wen, the current president of Taiwan.

Tsai leads the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans toward formal independence from China.

USA and Taiwan

Although there are no formal ties between Taiwan and the US, Washington has committed to supplying Taiwan with defensive weapons.

In 2018, China increased pressure on international companiesforcing them to incorporate Taiwan as part of China on their internet pages.

Otherwise, China threatened to stop their commercial ambitions in the Asian giant.

Tsai was re-elected in 2020. By then, Hong Kong had endured months of unrest, with demonstrators protesting against Beijing's growing influence, a situation closely watched by Taiwan.

That same year, the entry into force of a national security law in Hong Kong was widely interpreted as yet another sign that Beijing was increasingly imposing its authority on the territory.

President Joe Biden's administration has affirmed that the US commitment to Taiwan It is “solid as a rock.”

What is the status of Taiwan?

There is confusion and disagreement about what Taiwan actually is and what it should be called.

China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and is committed to reunification, by force if necessary.

But the Taiwanese leadership assures that it is much more than a province, and argues that it is a sovereign state.

Taiwan has its own Constitution, democratically elected leaders, and about 300,000 active troops in its armed forces.

The Republic of China (ROC) government under Chiang Kai-shek, who fled to Taiwan in 1949, initially declared that it represented all of China and intended to retake the entire territory again.

This republic held a seat on the UN Security Council and was recognized by many Western nations as the sole government of China.

However, in 1971, the UN transferred diplomatic recognition to Beijing and the DRC government was expelled. Since then, the number of countries that diplomatically recognize the DRC has fallen to just over ten nations, plus the Holy See.

Given the large gap between these two positions, Most countries seem content to accept the current ambiguity.

So Taiwan possesses most of the characteristics of an independent state, although its legal status remains unclear.

How significant is independence?

Although little political progress has been made, the ties between both peoples and their economies have grown.

Taiwanese companies have invested about US$60 billion in Chinaand up to a million Taiwanese live on the Chinese mainland, many running Taiwanese factories.

Some worry about Taiwan's economy's dependence on China.

Others, however, point out that close trade relations would make any military action by Beijing difficult due to the damage it would do to the economy of the second world power.

A controversial trade deal sparked the “Sunflower Movement” in 2014, when students and activists occupied Taiwan's Parliament protesting what they saw as growing Chinese influence in Taiwan.

Officially, The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) still favors independence for Taiwanwhile the KMT leans towards dialogue with China.

An opinion poll commissioned by the Taiwanese government in March 2021 showed that the majority of people currently support the DPP government's strategy of “safeguarding national sovereignty.”

The 2020 election in which Tsai won with a record 8.2 million votes was widely interpreted as a rejection of Beijing.

What allies does Taiwan have?

The United States is by far Taiwan's most important friend and its only ally.

The relationship, forged during World War II and the Cold War, endured its most difficult period in 1979, when President Jimmy Carter ended Washington's diplomatic recognition of Taiwan to focus on growing ties with China.

In response, the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, promising to supply defensive weapons to Taiwan, highlighting that any attack by China would be of “grave concern” to the US.

Since then, US policy has been described as one of “strategic ambiguity”, seeking to balance China's emergence as a regional power with admiration for Taiwan for its economic success and democratization.

The crucial role of the US was clearly demonstrated in 1996when China carried out missile tests to try to influence the first direct presidential elections in Taiwan.

In response, then-President Bill Clinton ordered the largest US military deployment in Asia since the Vietnam War, sending ships to the Taiwan Strait and a clear message to Beijing.

The status quo: neither declare independence nor unify with the continent

In 2018, against Beijing's wishes, former President Donald Trump signed a law allowing American officials to travel to Taiwan and meet with their counterparts to strengthen relations.

Then, in August 2020 and in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, Trump sent a member of his cabinet, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, to Taiwan. He was the highest-ranking U.S. government official to visit the island in decades, until now.

Surveys consistently show that most Taiwanese consider themselves to have a unique Taiwanese identity and prefer the status quo: neither declare independence nor unify with the conti
nent.

To rise in the polls, the KMT has had to moderate its message, insisting that it is not “pro-China” but rather seeks friendlier relations.

But some of its detractors believe that this is a naive position and that Hong Kong can serve as an example to Taiwanese that China can change its vision of moderation and compromise at any moment.

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