Genoa – Once you've done thirty, you'll have to do thirty-one. Even better if thirty-two. What are you talking about? Of the points that Sampdoria will tend to take home to close the season in the playoff zone based on the averages of the last Serie B championships. The winter break is about to end. While the transfer market gets off to a slow start, the return to the field is approaching. The second round and the Blucerchiati's 2024 season will begin on Sunday in Venice, at 4.15pm. Tough challenge, against the lagoon players who ended 2023 in decline but are second on equal points with Como, behind leaders Parma. Andrea Pirlo starts again from tenth place and from the 23 points won in the first round (25 obtained on the pitch minus the two penalties) five behind Modena in eighth, bringing up the rear of the playoff zone. Doria also ended on the back foot, with only one point obtained between Lecco and Bari at Marassi but at the peak of an overall positive cycle, with which it recovered quite a few positions. The goal, the hope, is to complete the ascent until being able to compete for promotion to Serie A between the end of May and the beginning of June.
Yes, but How many points will it take to make it? Obviously, each season has its own story and a different development but analyzing the most recent seasons can help to get an idea. It is the fifth year that Serie B has had the current formula, i.e. with 20 teams, two direct promotions and access to the playoffs from third to eighth place. In 2019/20, eighth was Frosinone with 54 points; in 2020/21 Chievo Verona (56); in 2021/22 Perugia, (58); in 2022/23 Venezia (49). The average says that in Serie B they finish eighth with 54.2 points. And if it is respected this time too, Sampdoria will have to score at least another 31. In these last 4 seasons, at the end of the first round the eighth places were respectively Ascoli (27 points), Pordenone (28), Cittadella (30 ) and Parma (26). In short, the pace was roughly the current one, with Modena at 28. So it is plausible that scoring 54-55 points could be enough this time too. Sampdoria should therefore do 31/32 in the next 19 days, maintaining an average of 1.6/1.7 per game.
After difficulty of the first 8 days, with Sampdoria in the relegation zone, from Ascoli onwards the Blucerchiati have won 20 points in 11 rounds (average 1.8). So even maintaining the pace undertaken from Picchio's draw onwards could be enough. Although, it is clear, to risk as little as possible it would be even better to produce a slight acceleration. The months of work spent together, the tactical and playing identity now achieved, the character growth and the explosion of Esposito suggest that Pirlo's team can maintain the more positive trend observed from mid-October onwards. But it will be essential to start off on the right foot. January may already prove decisive.
AND Pirlo will have to work overtime in facing the many obstacles. The first is the calendar, which is immediately difficult: Venezia away, Parma at Ferraris, Cittadella away and Modena at home, all teams currently in the top eight, in full competition for promotion. Secondly there are absences, which remain significant. The Maestro under the Christmas tree has found Benedetti again but in Venice he will not have the suspended Gonzalez and Kasami (also out against Parma). And the poker of injured players weighs heavily: Vieira, Pedrola, Borini and Ferrari, the first to return will be the Englishman, but it will most likely go to February. And finally there is the market. Insidious from a mental point of view, for potentially outgoing players. It is complicated in entry, due to the limits imposed by the FIGC rules for those like Samp who have undertaken the path of debt restructuring. In short, it won't be easy. But not impossible either.
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