Junts and Podemos push the Government until the end in the first key plenary session for Sánchez

Less than two months after being sworn in as president, Pedro Sánchez and his Government are risking their political credibility in the first major litmus test with a decisive vote this Wednesday in the plenary session of Congress, the validation of three economic decrees with which, among In other aspects, no less than 10 billion euros of European recovery plan are at stake.

The consequences of a defeat, which the Executive has been trying to avoid for days with agonizing negotiations, would be harsh for the millions of people affected by the decrees, ranging from pensioners and recipients of unemployment benefits to electricity consumers, that is, almost all citizens, or users of public transport. But they would also have a strong political effect, because the coalition Government has made political stability, with three Budgets and more than 200 laws approved in the previous legislature, one of its greatest values.

The Government would not fall due to such a defeat, which is not comparable to the rejection of some Budgets – which led to the early elections in 2019 – but the image of the stability of the parliamentary majority in its first important test would be damaged. To avoid this, the PSOE, the main negotiator, and Sumar, which is in charge of one of the three decrees, the one carried by Labor, negotiated last night with the two groups that caused the most problems until the end: Junts and Podemos, with the idea of process the initiatives as bills in order to modify them. The vote is scheduled for this Wednesday afternoon and therefore the negotiation can also be extended to the end.

The Government flatly rejected the idea of ​​withdrawing the decrees, as proposed by Junts, and offered both the independentists and Podemos to negotiate the changes they demand through the processing of the three decrees as a bill. But the groups are not trusting and demand concrete commitments with time horizons for reform.

There is concern in the Executive, although everyone hopes to resolve the negotiation as before, at the last moment but without losing the vote. Sánchez has had very slim majorities for five years, and has never lost a relevant vote, although on occasions, such as in the labor reform, he achieved it on the rebound due to an error by the PP. “This situation does not make much sense, they are not ideological decrees, there are 10,000 million European funds and a lot of aid at stake, it is incomprehensible,” a minister despairs, criticizing not only the allies who cause problems but also the PP, which is in the “no” and insists that it will not be Sánchez's lifeline if he does not accept his tax cuts, which according to La Moncloa would imply 9,000 million euros less for the public coffers, something unaffordable for them.

Thus, just a few hours before the session in the Senate begins, as the lower House is in construction, the simple majority necessary to validate the rules has not been formed. Moncloa has opened up to study some of the requests from the Junts and Podemos formations since the votes in favor of both formations are essential for the decrees to go ahead. Or at least the abstention of the independentists. If either of the two joins the no bloc, which includes the PP, Vox and UPN, defeat is certain, but also the political cost for those who join their votes with the opposition to reject decrees that contain important social benefits. .

While Junts focuses its negotiation on the so-called decree bus, Podemos is willing to support the social shield and the deficit path, which is also voted on this Wednesday, but it flatly refuses to support the decree carried out by the ministry of Yolanda Díaz, with which they are very opposed, if what they understand is not withdrawn as a cut in the subsidy, that is, the contribution for those over 52 years of age, which was at 125%, will be progressively reduced until reaching 100% in 2028. From Labor they point out that the decree improves by almost 100 euros on average —from 480 to 570— the subsidy for 736,074 people who are pending this vote and who would lose that increase if the decree falls due to the rejection of Podemos or Junts or both.

The decrees that the Government approved in December and that must be validated in the extraordinary plenary session are three: the one that extends a large part of the anti-crisis package to 2024, the decree bus which includes other measures related to the receipt of European funds – such as the digitalization of justice – and this third one promoted by the Ministry of Labor. Confirmed, it has the vote in favor of the 121 seats of the PSOE, the 26 of Sumar, the 7 of ERC, the 5 of PNV, the 6 of EH Bildu and the Canarian Coalition, for the three decrees. That is, 166 of the 350 deputies. A simple majority is required (more yeses than noes), so that equation does not give the numbers, because the safe noes are 171 (PP, Vox and UPN). The BNG will not reveal its position until 10:30 this Wednesday, the day of the debate, although it is expected to vote in favor. If this were the case, the decrees would go ahead either with the favorable vote of Junts and Podemos or with the yes of Ione Belarra and the abstention of Puigdemont.

Hence the efforts of the Executive to find the formula acceptable to both formations. Junts has pushed until the end to showcase its power as a demanding formation. but aware that breaking the rope would mean staggering the birth of the amnesty law, pending processing. Of course, Puigdemont's party needs a gesture that allows it to pay off its story of demanding training both against Sánchez and against its Esquerra rivals.

Junts surprised this Tuesday by adding a new requirement to its conditions: the independence party asked to fine companies that do not return to Catalonia after having left for the processes. The minister spokesperson, Pilar Alegría, limited herself to stating in this regard that the “legal security” of the companies must be guaranteed, to which the parliamentary spokesperson for the PSOE, Patxi López, added: “We are talking to Junts to see how we can handle ourselves.” to facilitate the return of companies.” One of the ways to study is to promote tax incentives instead of applying sanctions, according to government sources. Carles Puigdemont's party asks, for now, for more.

Given the delicate situation, Alegría urged the parties this Tuesday, appealing to the responsibility that in his opinion perpetuating the texts entails. “We are talking about measures that affect the citizens of this country, regardless of ideology,” said the minister spokesperson, who in turn attacked Alberto Núñez Feijóo. “The Popular Party would have to get more used to dialogue. This Government has always expressed its willingness to speak. We believe that constructive responses can also be given from the opposition,” she stated.

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