Lately, what ever has been declared to be “playing in Putin's pocket”. However, speaking like that easily reinforces the myth of Putin succeeding in everything in the end.
Internationally as well respected expert on the Russian economy, Laura Solanko, senior advisor at Bofit, the Bank of Finland's research institute for emerging economies published an interesting blog post before Christmas.
In it, he ponders why the first estimates that predicted the collapse of the Russian economy went so badly wrong when Russia had started its major attack on Ukraine. After all, the Russian economy is clearly stronger than expected, which increases the Kremlin's current self-confidence.
Solanko lists three explanations. First of all, oil, which is important for Russian exports, has been more expensive than expected. Secondly, the sanctions have been narrower than expected. However, the biggest thing was that it was not understood at first that the war of aggression was the first priority for the Russian leadership, to which almost everything else is subordinate. It was ready to quickly transform the country into a war economy and scrap the foundations of its old economic policy.
Solanko however, points out that although the Russian economy turned out to be more sustainable than expected, it is still too early to assess its true sustainability. Gross national product is a bad indicator when the government increases its spending wildly because of the war. Sanctions, despite their weakness, have long-term effects, as well as Russia's disengagement from the world economy.
Still, such a calm and self-critical analysis is refreshing to read. Lately, the conversation has been going around a lot. A good example is the situation on the eastern border, where, according to someone, every action or omission has “played into Putin's pocket”.
“
The discussion about Russia is easily black and white.
The discussion about Russia is easily black and white, which the President of the Republic Sauli Niinistökin referred to in his New Year's speech. It also conveys the speech about Russian leader Vladimir Putin. He is mocked as a cowardly bunker dad, but at the same time, he is almost resigned to the idea that somehow Putin will eventually turn the events of the border into a profit and benefit. Actually, it's not clear at all.
Every one can evaluate Putin as they wish. However, it is good to realize that when declaring that Putin “benefits” from something, one easily reinforces the myth of a skilled and ultimately victorious Putin.
Solango's analysis is one reminder that Russia is both in huge problems and surprisingly resilient at the same time. Many problems are the result of Putin's taking risks, when instead of planning, he acted with his coat open, trusted brutality and hoped for the best.
The author is the editor-in-chief of HS.
#Column #strongest #strong #weakest #weak #Putin
