The year 2024 holds potential for political turmoil. Elections in over 50 countries could shake up the global order.
Munich – The year 2024 is just around the corner – politically speaking, it could bring some upheavals; Almost half of the global population lives in countries where elections are held. Presidential elections are planned in around 30 countries. The parliamentary composition is up for election in around 20.
Populist movements are already causing unrest in advance. A possible comeback by Donald Trump could have far-reaching effects on Europe and the war in Ukraine. In East Germany, current polls are raising fears of electoral success for the AfD, while in Austria the FPÖ could possibly repeat old successes. At the same time, something historic could happen in Latin America – a woman could take over the presidency in Mexico for the first time.
Trump versus Biden? USA threatens a repeat of the destructive 2020 election
In the USA there is a return of Donald Trump possible. Although the former president has not yet been officially confirmed as the Republican candidate, it is likely that he will run against incumbent President Joe Biden on November 5th despite several ongoing criminal cases.
It would be a repeat of the scenario of the last presidential election. Trump has still not accepted his defeat back then – his unproven claim of the “stolen election” led to his supporters storming the Capitol. Disinformation is expected to continue to shape the 2024 election campaign. Another open question for many voters: whether an 81-year-old or his 78-year-old potential challenger are capable of governing the USA at such an old age.
Russia “votes”: Putin could catch up with Stalin
In Russia, Vladimir Putin, who has been in power for almost 24 years, including a small amount of office shuffling, has eliminated the opposition. He also changed the constitution in 2020 so that he could theoretically remain president until 2036 – which would put him above Josef Stalin in terms of length of office. Putin only officially announced his candidacy for the March 17 election in December.
The 71-year-old plans to rule for another six years. He hardly has to fear any opposing candidates. In the context of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, Putin further intensified measures against the opposition and civil society. The main political opponents are either dead, in exile, or in prison, like Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin's greatest enemy. He was ultimately transferred to an Arctic prison camp.
European elections dominated by right-wing populists
The European elections represent a test for the right-wing populists. In the world's largest cross-border election, more than 400 million eligible voters from 27 EU countries will determine the 720 members of the European Parliament in June. After the victory of the right-wing populists in Italy and the Netherlands and the current immigration debate, attention is turning to the (sometimes extreme) right: The “Identity and Democracy” faction, to which the AfD also belongs, could, according to projections, become the fourth strongest faction. This could shift the balance of power in the European Parliament.
AfD even hopes for election victories: three state elections in the east
The people of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg will elect new state parliaments in 2024. The elections will take place on September 1st in Saxony and Thuringia and three weeks later, on September 22nd, in Brandenburg. According to surveys, the right-wing populist AfD could become the strongest force in all three federal states. The AfD recently won its first mayoral position in Pirna, Saxony.
India votes for weeks: Modi favorite – despite cuts in freedoms
Almost a billion Indians are called to vote for the parliament of the world's most populous nation in April and May. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his nationalist BJP party are seeking a third term in office. Modi's political career is based on the support of more than a billion Hindus. Critics accuse him of stoking hostility against the Muslim minority. His supporters praise him for improving India's image in the world. Although Modi has restricted civil liberties in recent years, he is the clear favorite in the election. Due to the size of the country, the election will take place over several weeks.
First parliamentary elections in Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini
Parliamentary elections in Iran will take place on March 1, 18 months after the death of Mahsa Amini. The young Kurdish woman's death after her arrest by moral police sparked months of mass demonstrations against political and religious leaders. The protest was severely suppressed, hundreds were killed and thousands arrested. Before the last election in 2020, the regime excluded many reform-minded and moderate candidates, leaving Iranians only able to choose between conservatives and ultra-conservatives.
Austria facing a slide to the right again? FPÖ leads in polls
Austria, a relatively small but important neighbor and partner country of Germany, will hold National Council elections in autumn 2024 at the latest. An unequal alliance between the conservative ÖVP and the Greens currently governs Vie
nna. Surveys from December indicate a possible shift to the right: the right-wing populist FPÖ led the field with around 30 percent, followed by the social democratic SPÖ. According to demographic data, the government parties, similar to the traffic light coalition in Germany, are far from regaining a majority.
A novelty possible in Mexico: two women as favorites
In June, a woman could be elected president of Mexico for the first time. It would be a strong message in a country where thousands of women are murdered every year. Two women are considered favorites to succeed President Andrés Manuel López Obrador: Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City from the left-wing ruling party Morena, and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez, the opposition alliance's candidate. (AFP/fn)
“The editor wrote this article and then used an AI language model for optimization at his own discretion. All information has been carefully checked. Find out more about our AI principles here.
#Trump #FPÖ #AfD #election #year #populism #shockwaves
