BRUSSELS. In Brussels for the moment there is no overreach for what is considered “an internal Russian affair”, but which however becomes a matter for every European chancellery. The turnaround of the Warner group and scenarios of civil war in the Russian Federation activate the channels of politics and diplomacy throughout the Twenty-Seven bloc. Contacts with G7 partners, above all the United States, for the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell. But it is above all the many contacts between heads of state and governments of the EU, in particular among those who share the border with Putin’s country in the north-east.
Latvia closes the crossings, preventing entry to Russian citizens fleeing a situation with unclear outlines, and a real control room is set up between the Baltic republics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Finland and Poland to find a common line, especially as regards border management. “We are all ready to take the necessary measures to protect our borders,” assures the Prime Minister of Latvia, Krisjanis Karins. This was confirmed by Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.
What is feared, for those approaching Russia, is a new flow of asylum seekers, different from the Ukrainian one because it is less welcome. But it is only one aspect of an issue that is mobilizing all the capitals of the Union. The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, in addition to having activated direct channels with the Baltic and Finnish partners, has also contacted the leaders of the Czech Republic, Romania, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, France and Italy, as well as with the Prime Minister European Union and the High Representative of the EU.
Poland is following developments in Russia with apprehension, and Moraviecki has convened an extraordinary meeting with the ministers of defense and interior, and national security services. He then scheduled a meeting with the President of the Republic, Duda, and the National Security Council. A sort of council of war, for a situation that keeps everyone in suspense. On the one hand, a possible overthrow of Russian President Vladimir Putin would be welcomed in the EU, where so far the utmost confidentiality has been maintained. In terms of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and support for Kiev, the latest developments point to an end to hostilities, but there is no shortage of uncertainties and risks.
The direct line set up between Warsaw, the Baltic capitals and Helsinki is destined to remain active. The leaders promised each other continuous exchanges of information and to remain in close contact and coordination. Lithuania, which will host the NATO summit in Vilnius on 11 and 12 July, is calling the Atlantic Alliance to rally. «The Vilnius Summit will serve to evaluate the new facts. We must be ready for every scenario,” warns the Lithuanian president, Gitanas Nauseda. But the summit risks being overtaken by events. One way or the other. For the Ukrainian armed forces supported by the EU, there is an opportunity for a different counter-offensive by exploiting the opening of a Russian internal front, but in the next three weeks, the moment of the NATO summit, anything can happen.
The first useful moment, for Poland, Finland and the Baltic bloc, for a real assessment of the situation will be the meeting of EU foreign ministers, scheduled in Luxembourg on Monday. The agenda has been overturned by events and by Member States asking for it to be updated.
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