As in all elections in recent history, the Hispanics in the United States. will favor the Democratic Party in these midterm elections. However, according to the polls, by much narrower margins than in the past. Something that could be fatal to his aspirations to retain the control of congress.
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The most recent survey conducted by the Washington Post and Ipsos holds that 63 percent of Latinos would favor Democratic candidates and 36 percent Republicans.
That is, an advantage of 27 percentage points. But, six years ago, in the 2016 elections, and four years ago in the 2018 elections, that difference was 40 points between the two parties. An important 13-point swing that has Democrats on edge.
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And it is that Hispanics are the largest minority in the country with almost 20 percent of the population, added to the fact that their participation has been growing and today it is located at 15 percent of the electoral part.
Hence, in a country as polarized as the US, their support becomes a vital component of the country’s political life.
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Republicans are nowhere near winning the Hispanic vote. But what we have seen throughout these last electoral cycles is that the difference has been steadily narrowing.
“Although the Republicans are not close to winning the Hispanic vote, what we have seen throughout these last electoral cycles is that the difference has been steadily reducing,” says Chuck Rocha, a strategist associated with the Democratic party who He has worked on the recent campaigns of Senator Bernie Sanders.
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According to Rocha, the change is largely due to an electoral strategy. “A decade ago, Republicans didn’t even stop at Hispanic neighborhoods or buy Spanish-language advertising for illegals. But since then, they have focused on this segment of the electorate and that effort is paying off.”
For Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who has been working on this goal for years, “it’s a matter of mathematics.” “We realized that demographic changes were real and permanent and that we had to dedicate time and resources if we wanted to survive,” says the analyst about states like Nevada, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Texas and Colorado, where the population of Hispanics is higher and tends to weigh more in local contests with national impact.
while the Democrats have stayed on the immigration issue like his workhorse, the elephant party has focused on the economy, crime, and other social issues that affect everyday life.
As a group, for example, Hispanics were among the populations most affected by the economic crisis unleashed by covid-19, since a majority work in sectors that had to close their doors, such as hotels, tourism and entertainment.
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Likewise, and given that their income levels are lower than the national average, they have been directly suffering from the increase in inflation and the cost of living. Some 30 percent of them, according to the survey of the postpoints to the economic situation as his main concern.
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And although they are global factors that do not depend entirely on the government’s economic policies, the Republicans have exploited them to their advantage. Likewise, they have emphasized the crime wave that affects their communities and that is also tied to poverty.
In parallel, they have focused on the origin of Hispanics and their religiosity, since many come from or have roots in countries that are socialist in nature and where the church is an important part of their lives.
The Hispanic and his vote is no longer monolithic and responds to a multitude of factors. The immigration issue is important but it is not the only one that affects them.
“The Hispanic and his vote is no longer monolithic and responds to a multitude of factors. The migratory issue is important, but not the only one that affects them,” says Rocha.
In fact, according to the sample postimmigration appears in the seventh box of their concerns and is widely surpassed by other issues such as the cost of living, the right to abortion, health, climate change and violence.
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In this election cycle, moreover, the Democrats have several disadvantages. Participation is undoubtedly the largest of them.
Although in the midterm elections in the United States Fewer people always vote, this decrease is more acute among Hispanics. In other words, its impact is less than in the presidential elections and, therefore, it affects the party in power more because it is a bloc that always favors them. Additionally, the greatest abstentionism is recorded among those under 30 years of age, who tend to be more liberal than the rest of the group.
In polls, only 50 percent of them say they intend to vote compared to 75 percent of those over 50, who tend to be more conservative. That added to the low popularity of the President Joe Biden that drags votes against the Democrats.
Although support for the president is higher than the national average (53 percent among Hispanics versus 43 percent overall), they are low numbers compared to previous presidents from this same party.
In Rocha’s view, what there is is a “Democratic hemorrhage” in terms of the Latino vote, which the party has not been able to stop and which could now tip the scales against it.
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
Correspondent of THE TIME
Washington
On Twitter @sergom68
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