Bruno Pavani
07/13/2023 – 17:28
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The 2022 Census was published by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) on June 28 and the highlight was population growth in medium-sized cities.
understand the case
- Pandemic was the main factor for the lower-than-expected growth of the Brazilian population;
- Salvador was the capital that had the biggest decrease in population: 9%;
- Medium-sized cities around large metropolises will continue to grow, experts believe.
According to the Census, Brazil has 203 million inhabitants, 4.7 million less than IBGE estimates
Medium cities gain strength
One data that was detected in the information released about the Census is that medium-sized cities were responsible for the highest growth rates in comparison with the 2010 survey.
One example is Sorocaba, which became the second largest city in the interior of São Paulo, surpassing Ribeirão Preto. In 2010, Ribeirão had 604,682 against 586,816. Twelve years later, Sorocaba has 723,574 against 698,259 in the northeastern city of the state.
Professor, consultant and Master in Geography from Ufscar (Federal University of São Carlos) Hiran Mauá believes that this growth, as well as that of several medium-sized cities, is due to the proximity to the capital aligned with a better quality of life and the possibility of home office.
“In the interior of São Paulo, medium-sized cities gain momentum because the capitals are socially and geographically saturated. With the increase in the home office or hybrid jobs, many people work in these cities for companies in the capital, ”he explains.
Another point highlighted by Mauá is the closed condominiums built in the city, which makes residents of the capital choose safer homes.
Transfer to cities will change
Population growth and the arrival of economically active people can be an opportunity for these medium-sized cities to boost the economy, in addition to increasing tax collection.
Economist and professor of MBAs at FGV (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) Carla Beni also points out that cities that have had a population increase will have a larger share of the FPM (Municipal Participation Fund).
“This should happen in a phased manner over the next few years, so as not to have such a huge impact on the cities that will lose money in this redistribution. They will see a 10% reduction per year in the quotient,” she explained.
Sustainable growth depends on public policies
In order to take advantage of population growth, experts say that city halls should invest in public policies so as not to alienate new residents and maintain a high quality of life.
Mauá believes that without public investment in health, transport and education, disorderly growth could cause this population to migrate again.
“There may be real estate speculation problems and urban swelling due to traffic, lack of schools and hospitals, and turning these cities into chaos”, he points out.
Beni points out that cities will need to know where to invest that extra money that will come in due to the high population.
“Planning is important not only for the financial volume, but where you are going to invest, in which areas and age groups that will be impacted by these investments. This is a new challenge for these cities, as there cannot be bottlenecks that make people leave the municipality”, he concluded.
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