STOCKHOLM. They could be the women’s rights activiststhe busy ones in environmental protection oh indigenous peoples to win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. And this despite bookmakers betting on the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in the first instance and on the Russian dissident Alexey Navalny Then.
The official announcement will have to wait until October 6 in Oslo, but according to experts it is unlikely that the Nobel committee will decide to award the peace prize to the leader of a country that is currently at war. Navalny’s chances also seem to be declining, given that Russian dissidents have already been awarded the Nobel in previous years. Third favorite among bookmakers is the Uyghur activist in prison Ilham Tohti, even if this choice would make China unhappy. Among other things, there is a precedent: when the detained dissident Liu Xiaobo won the Nobel Peace Prize, Beijing froze diplomatic relations with Oslo for six years.
In the year that marks the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the Nobel Committee may decide to recognize the contribution of activists to peace, said Henrik Urdal, director of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo. “I think perhaps the most likely candidates would be human rights defenders,” he said. She could therefore be rewarded Narges Mohammadi, an Iranian citizen who fights for women’s rights and against the death penalty and who is currently in prison. Or the Afghan Mahbouba Serajwho remained in Kabul to carry forward, despite the ban by the ruling Taliban, a campaign in defense of girls’ right to education.
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The Nobel Committee may also want to shine a spotlight on climate change, a topic last addressed in Oslo in 2007 when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and former US Vice President Al Gore were honored. Because even climate change, in some situations, generates conflicts. In this context, the eligible candidates could be the organizers of the movement Fridays for Futurestarted by activist Greta Thunberg, but also indigenous leader Raoni Metuktire, leader of the Kayapo people in Brazil, who has campaigned for decades to protect the Amazon rainforest. “Involvement of indigenous people in environmental protection will be crucial to our prospects of surviving the current crisis,” said Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. If the Nobel Committee decides to focus on people’s rights indigenous people could also be the ones to be rewarded Victoria Tauli-Corpuz of the Philippines, previously UN Special Rapporteur on the rights of indigenous peoples, and the Ecuadorian indigenous leader Juan Carlos Jintiach. Other potential winners could eventually be there International Court of JusticeL’United Nations refugee agency UNHCRL’Unicef or the International Committee of the Red Cross.
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