Would NATO be at risk in the event of Trump's eventual return to power?: the alliance defends itself

Donald Trump attacks NATO again and generates an avalanche of criticism and concerns.

The former president and favorite to remain with the Republican Party candidacy, facing the presidential elections next November, took his criticism to a new level, when last Saturday, February 10, at a campaign rally, he again accused members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as “defaulters” for not paying what he considers the fair share of the political-military alliance.

Although Trump already made these accusations during his last Administration, this time he raised the warning when he assured that not only would he not allow his country to defend countries in debt, but he would encourage Moscow to attack them. A statement with which he suggested siding with an authoritarian nation.

“Well, sir, if we don't pay and we are attacked by Russia, will you protect us?” Trump quoted the alleged words of a “president of a big country.”

“I said, 'Did you not pay? Are you in default?' He said, 'Yes, let's say that happened.' No, I wouldn't protect them. In fact, I would encourage them (Russia) to do whatever they want. They have to pay,” the controversial former head of state continued.

The reactions of the Western allies were immediate. But are the former president's allegations unfounded?

How is NATO financed?

With his accusations, Trump points to the political-military alliance – made up of 29 countries and led by Washington – as if it were a club in which its members must pay membership fees.

But the organization operates differently. It has common funds, to which all members contribute. Nevertheless, most of its strength comes from the national defense spending of each nation that comprises itin order to maintain forces and purchase weapons that can also be used by NATO.

Alliance members do not deposit money to join the alliance, but instead pay contributions to a primarily administrative fund.

However, Trump has often accused other NATO members of not paying their “fair” dues in their own defense budgets.

And it was not the only one. Some of his predecessors also raised that concern, although without such strident statements.

In fact, it was in 2014, during the Administration of then-President Barack Obama, that the members of the alliance agreed to “move forward” towards spending 2% of GDP on the national military budget by 2024.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also said members needed to invest more in their own militaries.

At their last summit, held in Lithuania last July, NATO leaders reinforced that promise, agreeing to spend at least 2% of GDP on their military budgets. No deadline was set to reach the goal.

The 2% margin is a reference that each member should invest in its own military sector in order to contribute to the joint defense of the alliance. However, the goal is voluntary and does not imply debt or “delinquency,” as Trump maintains.

Now, after the last summit in Vilnius, as confirmed by Stoltenberg, only seven of the then 30 allied countries of the organization met the established military spending objective in 2022. Now it has 31 members after the recent connection of Finland.

11 members were expected to meet the 2% target by 2023. Those members were Poland, the United States, Greece, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Latvia, Great Britain and Slovakia.

Germany, the heavyweight of the European economy, was estimated at 1.57%. But German officials have said they hope to hit the 2% target this year, thanks in part to a special €1 billion fund set up in response to Russia's war in Ukraine.

Would there be consequences for NATO with Trump's eventual return to power?

The controversial tycoon-turned-politician has a history of misrepresenting NATO information or suggesting that the United States might not live up to its commitment to its allies.

The former national security advisor John Bolton assured in his memoirs that Trump was close to removing the leading power from NATO in 2018.

The then president referred to the alliance at that time as if it were a bankrupt business. “I went to NATO. And NATO was essentially going bankrupt because people weren't paying and it was going down, down, down,” he declared.

Likewise, the now Republican candidate lamented that Americans were “the idiots” who were “paying for everything.” The United States has spending well above 2%, but it has been declining for years.

While the Republican leader's bullying of Western nations to spend more on defense during his Presidency may have prompted some to do so, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has marked a turning point that has led to the strengthening of the political alliance. military.

The ongoing conflict, which began on February 24, 2022, has been a catalyst in prompting allies to make much larger investments.

Finland's entry into NATO, in fact, took place in 2023, breaking with decades of non-alignment, given the increase in fears after Moscow launched war against its neighboring country. Sweden also hopes to join, but is still awaiting approval from Hungary, the only member that has not ratified the Scandinavian country's candidacy.

If the collapse of the Soviet Union led some to question whether NATO still had an important purpose, since it had been founded after World War II, in an attempt to stop the expansion of control of that union of Republics, the hostilities Russians in Ukraine relaunched their purpose.

And it is that Article 5 of its treaty emphasizes the principle of collective defense. That is, in the event of an attack against one of its members in America or Europe, it must be responded to jointly by the countries that belong to NATO.

Even so, that section does not indicate an automatic military replica to help an ally, meaning that the article must be invoked and actions executed after the endorsement of their political leaders. This is one of the reasons Trump's comments cause concern.

Stoltenberg: Trump endangers US and European militaries

The Secretary General of NATO assured that by suggesting that NATO allies could be failing in their duty, he undermines the foundations of the alliance and endangers the Armed Forces of both the United States and Europe.

For his part, the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy, Joseph Borrell, called Trump's statements “silly ideas.”

“During this campaign we are going to hear and see many things. Let's be serious, “NATO cannot be an à la carte military alliance, which works depending on the mood of the president of the United States.”Borrell emphasized.

For her part, the spokesperson for the Executive of the European Commission, Arianna Podesta, assured that Brussels is preparing for any scenario that arises from this year's elections in the United States.

“We are preparing an internal process to prepare for all possible outcomes of the United States elections,” the spokesperson said, without providing further details.

Rejection of Trump's words also comes from his own country. White House spokesman Andrew Bates said in a statement last Saturday that “encouraging the invasion of our closest allies by murderous regimes” is “appalling and senseless.”

The race to occupy the White House is ongoing, while Trump threatens to revive the ghost of discrepancies and disunity between the first power and the rest of the Western allies, such as that experienced during his “America First” Administration.

With Reuters, AP and EFE