The Wall Street Journal quoted Hamas officials as telling international mediators that they were open to discussing an agreement to release some of the kidnapped Israelis it is holding hostage in exchange for a “long-term cessation” of fighting.
Speaking to Sky News Arabia, officials and observers believe that the deal to stop the war “may be close” in response to continued American and regional pressure, to end the horrific humanitarian crisis in the Strip and allow the release of more hostages, despite some complications that still surround the axes of the agreement. Mediators to bypass it, considering that this deal will be in the form of “everyone wins”, to serve both parties; In Israel, it will be considered a success for the Israeli government in returning the hostages to their families and relieving the pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and for the Palestinian factions, it will be an opportunity to catch their breath and reorganize their ranks.
Intensive mediation efforts led by Qatar, Washington, and Egypt in recent weeks have focused on a gradual approach to the release of different categories of Israeli hostages, starting with civilians and ending with soldiers, in exchange for a cessation of hostilities, the release of Palestinian prisoners, a ceasefire, and more aid to Gaza.
Israel's victory?
For his part, Meir Masri, professor of political science at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem and member of the Central Committee of the Israeli Labor Party, stated in his interview with Sky News Arabia, Tel Aviv’s position on the negotiations currently taking place with Hamas, and what Netanyahu wants to stop the war, in a number of points, saying:
- For Israel, the war will not stop until Hamas is defeated or surrendered, in one word, because it is in an existential war today and its retreat against Hamas, regardless of the justification, will inevitably lead to the victory of Iran's followers in the region.
- There is no doubt that the issue of the kidnappers is thorny and painful, but it is secondary if we compare it to the amount of casualties and losses that Israel has incurred since October 7 and the importance of the strategic goal of the war for Israel, which is to completely eliminate the authority of Hamas and re-establish its security control over the Gaza Strip.
- Regarding the ongoing negotiations, I do not rely much on their feasibility, because stopping the fighting for two months will allow Hamas to catch its breath, which will expose more IDF soldiers to danger after the return of fighting. I also want to clarify that Israel is not negotiating with Hamas through Qatari mediation, but rather Qatar is negotiating through American mediation.
In this way, the American expert specializing in security and strategic affairs, Scott Morgan, speaking to Sky News Arabia, believes that so far, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been able to withstand the demands of the hostages’ families to accept the deal and return their relatives.
He explained that this conflict has turned into a war for the personal survival of the Israeli Prime Minister, adding, “It seems that his future trumps all other concerns at this time.”
He added: “We know that the deal, which would have led to a 30-day ceasefire for the exchange of hostages, has not been approved in the past 24 hours.”
Hamas victory?
As for Hamas, Ayman Al-Raqab, professor of political science at Al-Quds University and Palestinian political analyst, indicated in his interview with Sky News Arabia that the movement wants all Palestinian prisoners to be released, the war on Gaza to be completely stopped, and the Israeli army to withdraw from the Strip, in addition to its continued rule. sector.
He said that this would be a “victory” for Hamas, but it would not be acceptable to the Israeli side for Hamas to return to power, and even for the Palestinian people, they no longer welcomed the movement's presence in power because there was great pain that occurred in Gaza.
Al-Raqab added: “I believe that Hamas will adhere to the issue of releasing all prisoners according to the principle of ‘all before all’, and will not give it up after all this destruction in the Gaza Strip, but as is common knowledge, the negotiations have an upper and lower ceiling, and therefore I expect Hamas to agree to the principle of gradual truces.” Achieving a complete ceasefire and Israel’s complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, along with the release of prisoners, including those arrested by Israel during the current war.”
According to the professor of political science at Al-Quds University, Hamas may give up the condition of being in power in Gaza in exchange for forming a technocratic government, and this is in line with the Egyptian proposal, considering it “a compromise proposal that is considered best for all parties.”
He continued: “Regardless of all this, Israel is proposing unacceptable proposals, including the departure of Hamas leaders from the Gaza Strip, and this matter will not be accepted by the movement, especially its military wing.”
Inconsistency in information
In turn, the director of the Middle East Forum for Strategic Studies and the Palestinian political analyst, Abdul Mahdi Mutawa, said in his interview with “Sky News Arabia” that despite what is being circulated regarding that deal, there is still a “contradiction” regarding its axes according to what comes out of the parties associated with that process, He added, “The Hebrew media indicated that Hamas agreed to negotiate despite the lack of a ceasefire, with talk of a long truce between a month and 100 days, during which all detainees in Gaza would be released in exchange for the release of some Palestinian prisoners, including some who are classified as dangerous security personnel to Israel.” “.
Mutawa believes that the military pressure in Khan Yunis may have led Hamas to retreat from its militancy in those negotiations, while there is Israeli insistence, despite the losses incurred by the army in this battle, to strive to achieve the “bank of goals,” which is to destroy Hamas’ political and military capabilities. and recover the hostages.
He pointed out that the American administration did not issue any indication of its desire for a final ceasefire before achieving those declared goals, and thus there was a retreat by Hamas.
Regarding the formula of the agreement that satisfies Hamas and Israel, the Palestinian political analyst said, “There is no deal that satisfies everyone. If we talk about Netanyahu, in light of the accusations of holding him responsible for what happened on October 7, he wants to deny this accusation against him and achieve a victory for his continued rule, and therefore he wants to To reach a stage in which a clear victory will be achieved for the Israelis and there will be no new possibility of launching an attack from Gaza at a later time.”
As for Hamas, Mutawa said, “The Palestinians have gone beyond the stage of talking about victories, because there is something on the table that is equivalent to the size of the sacrifices made by the Palestinian people, and the matter is far different from those competing outside Gaza. The people inside the Gaza Strip are fully aware of the price that was paid, and therefore do not care about announcing it.” Any form of individual victory or heroics.”
He stressed that “despite talk about the idea of who wins, Hamas or Israel, it is clear that the loser is the Palestinian people, whose suffering will continue for many years to affect the lives of all generations and the Palestinian cause as a whole.”
Complex file
In the same context, Richard Weitz, director of the Center for Military and Political Analysis at the Hudson Institute, said in exclusive statements to Sky News Arabia, “It does not seem that there will be a deal in the near future, as the two sides are still very far from agreeing on a deal.” General features,” considering that this file is “very complex.”
Weitz added that since the first truce, all efforts have failed to formulate a coherent proposal that Israel and Hamas would agree to, continuing: “So far there is no agreement, only proposals for discussion.”
The expert specializing in Israeli affairs, Ghassan Muhammad, agreed with this in his statements to Sky News Arabia, where he said, “Everything that is said about the nearness of reaching a prisoner exchange deal between Hamas and Israel is just speculation and expectations that are not based on real data on the ground. Especially since the differences are still large, and an Israeli official indicated that reaching an agreement is still far away.”
However, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz quoted Netanyahu as saying during his meeting with the families of the prisoners that he was ready to make “reasonable concessions” in exchange for a deal, but he rejected Hamas’s request to stop the war and withdraw the Israeli army from Gaza.
“Ghassan” explained that, on the other hand, Israeli sources spoke of Tel Aviv's offer of a temporary truce for two months in exchange for reaching an agreement, but Hamas rejected the offer and affirmed its adherence to its demands, especially stopping the war, the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and allowing the residents of the Gaza Strip to return to their homes, provided that the implementation of the deal begins simultaneously. With the withdrawal of the Israeli army, the deal will be based on “all for all.”
He added: “In general, nothing serious yet, and things are still just discussions and an attempt to search for solutions that allow the positions to be brought closer.”
Optimism after previous militancy
On the other hand, Professor of International Relations and Foreign Policy, Khaled Al-Ezzi, explained in an interview with Sky News Arabia that, according to what is going on in diplomatic and media circles, there is an expected truce for a month between Israel and Hamas, especially after the movement’s militancy declined during the negotiations, as It is expected that this truce will take place in 3 stages, eventually leading to a discussion about the future of the Gaza Strip.
Al-Ezzi added, “The currently proposed truce includes a ceasefire, a cessation of hostilities on both sides, and withdrawal from some areas in the Gaza Strip, in exchange for the release of batches of Israeli hostages, starting with women, the elderly, and children, and then female and male soldiers after that.”
He pointed out that the prisoner exchange process is taking place accurately at a late stage, during which an agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas on the number and names that will be released. He continued: “Hamas has become close and open to the conditions of mediation, and there is an abandonment of the extremism in theses, as both parties have become closer to reality in Offering negotiations and not imposing escalatory conditions.”
Al-Ezzi referred to Israel's demand to deport 6 Hamas leaders abroad, continuing: “This is one of the matters that complicates the negotiations, especially since Hamas refuses to address this,” while he considers that what is witnessing inside Israel and the demands of the families of the prisoners to release them is pushing Netanyahu to abandon his extremism in Negotiations, and the United States is also pressing to reach that deal.
At the same time, the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Brett McGurk, visited Cairo and Doha as part of a tour in the region, to hold “serious” discussions regarding the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, and reaching a humanitarian truce in the stricken Strip.
According to White House spokesman John Kirby, the United States supports a longer humanitarian truce in Gaza, to ensure the release of detainees and the entry of humanitarian aid into the Strip. He refused to specify a time frame, but indicated that he could not describe the discussions as negotiations.
Proposals on the table
- According to the Washington Post, Israel and Hamas are seeking to resume negotiations to exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, accompanied by a long cessation of the war, as well as an increase in the amount of aid to the residents of the Gaza Strip.
- The newspaper explained that these issues, which have reached a dead end in the past weeks, are the basis of the negotiations. As for the “psychologically traumatized” Israel, the release of the hostages is a very important goal, and for the Palestinians who are on the verge of famine and epidemic diseases, the new ceasefire is An existential demand, while the deal will provide Hamas leaders trapped in the tunnels with the possibility of political survival.
- A push was made to resume serious negotiations this week, informed Israeli and American sources said. However, like every other aspect of the Gaza conflict, the deal is bound by deep mistrust and internal political divisions in Israel. But officials who were unenthusiastic about progress in the negotiations a week ago They are “more optimistic now.”
- Reports say that the main obstacle to the resumption of indirect talks is Hamas’s demand for a long-term ceasefire, as Israel refuses to agree to that, but its negotiators are ready to accept a truce that will last weeks and may be extended as conditions develop. Tel Aviv is also pressuring the mediators to persuade Hamas to accept. Negotiating framework, so that negotiations can begin on the details of the exchange of hostages and prisoners.
- According to the Washington Post, the negotiators believe there will be several stages in the process of releasing the hostages, including in the first stage Hamas releasing about 10 women and children who were supposed to be released under a previous agreement that collapsed last month, and in a second “humanitarian” stage, Hamas will release about 40 sick, wounded and elderly hostages along with female Israeli soldiers, in the remaining group of about 86 individuals, Hamas receives male hostages, including soldiers, and finally the bodies of those who died during the October 7 attacks or in the subsequent months from captivity.
- Each operation to release Israeli hostages from Gaza will be accompanied by the release of a batch of Palestinian prisoners, and sources say the ratio may be more than three Palestinians for every Israeli.
- She points out that although agreement on prisoner exchange lists does not occur until a short time before the release, one of the Palestinian detainees who may be released is Marwan Barghouti, who led the first and second intifadas, and is seen as the most popular political leader in the West Bank and Gaza. .
- The Wall Street Journal considered the offer to represent a major shift by Hamas, which had insisted for weeks that it would only negotiate the hostages as part of a comprehensive agreement that would lead to a permanent end to the war that has engulfed Gaza since October 7.
The crisis of guarantees and the demand for deportation
- In turn, Reuters quoted three sources as saying that Israel and Hamas agree in principle that the exchange of prisoners could take place during a month-long ceasefire, but the framework plan falters due to disagreements between the two sides over how to reach a permanent cessation of fighting.
- The latest round of shuttle diplomacy began on December 28, narrowing differences over the duration of the initial ceasefire to about 30 days after Hamas initially proposed a truce for several months, the agency quoted one of the sources, an official familiar with the negotiations, as saying.
- One of the sources, a Palestinian official close to the mediation efforts, said that while Israel seeks to negotiate one stage at a time, Hamas seeks to reach a “comprehensive deal” that agrees to a permanent ceasefire before releasing prisoners during the initial stage.
- In response to a question about the negotiations, Hamas leader Osama Hamdan said in an interview with Sky News Arabia that Hamas requires a complete and comprehensive ceasefire and the departure of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and will not accept that a temporary ceasefire be negotiated.
- Hamdan stressed the need for guarantees for any agreement, and the guarantees must be international and regional, and there must be a role for international parties in this agreement.
- A seventh source told Reuters that one of the offers made by Israel was to end the war if Hamas expelled six senior leaders from Gaza, including Yahya Al-Sinwar and Muhammad Al-Deif, who are among the most important targets that Israel is focusing on killing or arresting, and they are believed to be hiding in the depths of the network. Hamas' vast tunnels.
- However, Osama Hamdan stressed in his speech to “Sky News Arabia” that Hamas had not received “the proposal for the exit of Hamas leaders from Gaza, and no country has expressed that,” stressing that it is out of the question.
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