17/10/2023 – 17:55
Coming from a slight gain of 0.67% at the beginning of the week, Ibovespa approached the threshold of 117 thousand points during the session this Tuesday, 17th, but did not find the strength to detach itself from the negative signal from New York in the afternoon , amid the resumption of pressure on Treasury yields following a new round of stronger-than-expected data on the North American economy, released in the morning, and with the political imbroglio in Washington, given the persistence of the impasse over who will preside over the Chamber of Representatives.
Thus, the B3 index ended the day down 0.54%, at 115,908.43 points, having reached 116,916.68 points at its best, then slightly up 0.33%, with a minimum at 115,563.93 and opening at 116,526.43 points in the session. This Tuesday’s turnover rose slightly, to R$21.2 billion. In the month, the Ibovespa still falls 0.56%, but rises 0.13% in the week. In the year, it increased 5.63%.
“The stronger American data – today, on industrial production and retail sales – reinforces the prospect of high American interest rates for longer, which sucks money from the rest of the world, pulling the dollar and also resulting in a fall in the Stock Exchange, that rose earlier”, says Gabriel Meira, economist and partner at Valor Investimentos.
In this context, the perception that monetary policy in the world’s largest economy tends to remain at a restrictive level for a long time is now combined with a second front of uncertainty about geopolitics: the war in the Middle East against Hamas, a front which opens approximately one year and eight months after another still unresolved conflict, between Russia and Ukraine, with effects in both cases on commodity prices, mainly energy.
“We had very turbulent weeks due to the stress on Treasury yields, especially on longer maturities, which was reflected in the domestic curve. Afterwards, income there dropped a little, which helps here too, including the Stock Exchange. The war has a direct impact if the conflict escalates, with consequences especially for commodities such as oil, which will be an important proxy for what is happening in geopolitics”, says Lucca Ramos, partner at One Investimentos.
“Today, American retail data came in a little higher than expected for September, and the interest rate curves, both the short and long ends, turned upwards in the session, after this data”, observes Alan Soares, analyst at Toro Investimentos. “In the same vein, in turn, the future dollar rose in the morning”, adds the analyst, referring to a movement that also prevailed at certain moments in the middle to late afternoon, with the currency in spot, traded at R$ 5.01 at the day’s low, remaining just below stability (-0.04%) at the close, at R$ 5.0353 – at the maximum, it reached R$ 5.0658 this Tuesday.
“Before the opening, the day was one of positive expectations for the Stock Exchange, with Petrobras bringing record production results for oil and gas, at a time when the commodity has sought to remain close to the US$90 per barrel mark”, says Soares .
“The oil company reported yesterday that it produced 3.98 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day during the third quarter of 2023 – an increase of 7.8% compared to the previous three months, which encouraged investors”, he notes Vanessa Naissinger, specialist at Rico Investimentos.
Thus, even with oil on a downward trend for most of this Tuesday – but rising at the close in London and New York -, Petrobras ON and PN had a positive performance, with gains respectively of 2.27% and 2. 70%, at the maximum of the day for the preferential option at closing. Even so, the oil company’s advance was insufficient to carry the Ibovespa to gains in the session, also favorable for Vale (ON +0.82%). The day, however, was negative for most of the important and liquid stocks on B3, including banks, with Santander (Unit -2.30%) ahead.
On the winning side of Ibovespa in the session, in addition to Petrobras shares, highlights also include Gol (+4.28%), 3R Petroleum (+2.11%) and Vamos (+1.05%). On the opposite side, Magazine Luiza (-5.59%), Cielo (-4.32%), Carrefour (-4.21%) and Yduqs (-4.15%).
“The stock market was erratic throughout the day, even showing some improvement in the early afternoon, with New York, when the market was a little excited about the possibility of no further changes in US interest rates this year. It wasn’t worse because Petrobras and Vale remained in the positive field, while retail and banks accelerated their decline towards the end of the session”, says Rodrigo Marcatti, economist and CEO of Veedha Investimentos. The consumption index (ICON) closed down 1.53% this Tuesday.
In Washington news, Republican Representative Jim Jordan failed to win enough votes to be elected speaker of the United States House of Representatives on the first ballot in the afternoon after more Republicans than expected joined Democrats in refusing to vote. support it, setting the House up for another round of voting and new uncertainty about the path forward. No candidate obtained a majority among the 435 deputies. Jordan got 200 votes.
In the Middle East, the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, canceled his participation in the meeting with the American president, Joe Biden, and other Middle Eastern leaders, said a high-ranking Palestinian official on condition of anonymity, according to a report by the Associated agency Press. The meeting was scheduled for this Wednesday. Abbas decided not to attend in protest against an alleged Israeli airstrike on a hospital in Gaza that, according to Hamas health officials, killed more than 500 people.
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