Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested for his role in the attempted coup in Brazil?

“Everyone here has something to lose. We cannot let the elections arrive and what is being painted happen (…). We're going to have to do something first.”stated on July 5, 2022, the then president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaroin the middle of a ministerial meeting recorded on video and which was revealed on Friday by local media as the centerpiece of the investigation that the Federal Police has launched against him and some of his allies for possible coup d'état crimes.

(In context: Brazil: Supreme Court orders Bolsonaro to hand over his passport in case of the coup attempt)

In the leaked video fragments of the meeting, which took place three months before the presidential elections in which Bolsonaro unsuccessfully sought re-election losing against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the right-wing president appears sitting in the center of the room and surrounded by members of his cabinet. He is heard complaining about an electoral process that he considers “unfairly tilted against him” and, he says, irritated, that if he does not “react” before the elections, “chaos” will be unleashed..

(Keep reading: Brazil: what is known about the espionage scandal that affects former President Bolsonaro)

The hour and a half long recording – seized from the computer of Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, a former aide to Bolsonaro – reveals “the organization of the coup dynamics in the high echelons of the Government,” said the Federal Police when justifying the mega-operation carried out on Thursday. by order of the Supreme Court against Bolsonaro and part of his closest circle.

It was an unprecedented operation in Brazil, baptized as 'Tempus Veritatis' (time of truth, in Latin), which is part of the investigations to unravel what the authorities call a “criminal organization that acted in the coup attempt. of State” to keep the former president in power and which culminated in the events of January 8, 2023, eight days after Lula's inauguration, when thousands of Bolsonaro supporters broke into the presidential palace and the buildings of Congress and the Supreme Federal Court to request military intervention and recall the new president.

In Thursday's operation, three leading figures of Bolsonaroism were arrested: Filipe Martins, a former advisor for international affairs to Bolsonaro; and two Army soldiers. In addition, the homes of 24 other people were searched, including three former ministers and former deputy Valdemar Costa Neto, who presides over the Liberal Party, led by the former right-wing president. In that procedure, Costa Neto was also arrested for illegal possession of a weapon.

(Also: Brazil: House of Bolsonaro's son raided as part of espionage investigation)

Regarding Bolsonaro, Magistrate Alexandre de Moraes, who is leading the investigations, ordered him to hand over his passport to prevent him from leaving the country. The former president did not comment on the operation and his lawyer, Fábio Wajngarten, limited himself to announcing that, “in compliance” with the court order, Bolsonaro “delivered the passport to the competent authorities.”

For analysts consulted by this newspaper, The impact of these operations is certain because they consolidate suspicions that there were coup intentions. “The legal and political situation of the former president (Bolsonaro) became more complex,” says Leandro Lima, senior analyst at Control Risks for Brazil and the Southern Cone.

Adding to that assessment is political analyst André Cesar, from the consulting firm Hold, who believes that the investigations have now “reached the decisive point” pointing to the operators and intellectual authors. The evidence shows that “there was, in fact, a coup movement” and it will be “difficult for the defense to justify” the former president's actions, he adds.

(You can read: Of two countries whose institutions were attacked in protests, only one manages to heal)

Pre-election conspiracy

The video revealed by the Supreme Court on Friday is the latest boiling point in this plot. The ongoing investigation covers events prior to the acts of January 8, 2023 and contemplates the suspicion that those involved discussed, before Lula's inauguration, issuing a decree that annulled the elections that the leftist leader won and thus kept Bolsonaro in power.

The draft of this supposed decree also proposed arresting two Supreme Court judges – including De Moraes – and the president of the Senate and would have been analyzed directly by Bolsonaro himself in November 2022, when he was still in the Executive.

(Keep reading: Still polarized, Brazil marks the first anniversary of the Bolsonaro uprising)

The investigation adds that the “decree” was subject to modifications during several meetings in the presidential palaceand finally it would have been approved by the former president, who called a meeting with military commanders to “pressure them to adhere” to the attempt.

All of this occurred against the backdrop of a massive dissemination of fake news about an alleged “fraud in the elections”, whose ultimate objective was to “legitimize an intervention by the Armed Forces” and carry out a coup d'état.

De Moraes has said that he identified several “cores of action”, including one dedicated to promoting the false idea of ​​an institutional breakdown.

Among those responsible for this conspiracy would also be the former Minister of Security of the Presidency, General Augusto Heleno, and two former heads of Defense: Generals Paulo Sérgio Nogueira and Walter Braga Netto, who was a candidate for vice president in Bolsonaro's formula in 2022.

(Also: Hundreds of Jair Bolsonaro's followers protested against the Supreme Court of Brazil)

But all of these articulations, according to suspicions, actually began before the October 2022 elections, when all the polls were already predicting a victory for Lula. That's why, On Friday, the Federal Police announced that it will use the recording revealed by the Supreme Court as evidence against Bolsonaro for an alleged coup attempt..

Added to this is the discovery at the headquarters of the Liberal Party, on Thursday after the operation, of a document similar to a speech that announced a state of siege, as revealed by the Brazilian press.

Will Bolsonaro be arrested?

The big question raised by this scandal is whether the former president will be arrested and, eventually, sent to prison. His defense has sought to dismiss all accusations. Fabio Wajngarten, his lawyer, stated on his X account, for example, that the opinions that appear in the video revealed on Friday are “absolutely public” and that they “form part of democracy.”

(Also read: Commission approves report that accuses Bolsonaro of promoting coup attempt in Brazil)

Of the 2,170 people arrested for the events of January 8, only about 30 have been convicted of crimes such as coup d'étatwith sentences of up to 17 years in prison.

Bolsonaro, who due to these events was disqualified last June from running for elections until 2030, insists on his innocence and considers himself a victim. “I have not governed for more than a year and I continue to suffer relentless persecution,” he recently told a journalist from the newspaper Folha. “Forget about me,” she finished.

Carlos Melo, professor of political science at the Insper business school in São Paulo, comments that right now “there is a real possibility of an arrest of Bolsonaro,” but clarifies that “very solid evidence is needed to justify an order” in that case. sense. “Therefore, investigations and the entire legal process have to be extremely technical and careful.”

(You can read: 'Intellectual mentor': commission accuses Jair Bolsonaro of encouraging the riot in Brazil)

Geraldo Monteiro, professor of Political Science at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, believes that Bolsonaro “will surely be arrested due to his direct involvement in the coup d'état preparations”.

According to Monteiro, it is “the hardest blow so far” for the former president. “Harder” than when he was politically disqualified until 2030 for disinformation, “since we now enter the criminal sphere.”

Local media point out that Bolsonaro could be formally charged once the investigation concludes, which may happen soon. The Federal Police is considering the crimes of “coup d'état” and “abolition of the democratic rule of law.”

Other analysts see in this case a negative impact on the image of the right-wing leader. “These actions confirm his contempt for the democratic regime. Other political actors will probably be careful when approaching Bolsonaro,” says Leandro Lima, who, however, emphasizes that the former president “will maintain the support of a part of the population that “agrees with their ideological proposals and maintains a very strong feeling of rejection against the left.”

(Keep reading: The 'mountain' of investigations that Jair Bolsonaro faces before the Brazilian justice system)

Data from the Quaest Institute show that 58 percent of the messages on the networks about Thursday's police operation were critical of Bolsonaroan atypical defeat for who remains the leader of the digital political arena in Brazil.

Lula, the great beneficiary

Leandro Lima considers that this investigation benefits, paradoxically, Lula, since it “confirms his narrative as a defender of democracy in the face of an authoritarian adversary.”

The president himself knew how to capitalize on that moment. On Thursday, while the police operation was underway, Lula gave an interview to a radio station. In his first reaction he declared that “it is very difficult for a president to comment on matters that are under judicial secrecy” and asked that “there be no excesses and that the rigor of the law be applied.” But he did not hold back and said he believed that Bolsonaro “must have participated in the construction of that attempted coup”, which “would not have happened” without his participation..

(You can read: A hacker claims that Bolsonaro suggested he invade and manipulate the voting boxes)

What is at stake, especially, is the political bid with an eye on the municipal elections next October in which the mayors of 5,568 municipalities will be renewed and which are considered a thermometer of the Government's management almost halfway through the mandate of four years.

“Bolsonaro's active participation in the electoral campaigns of his allies has to be reevaluated. And the evidence collected by the police operations will be an argument for the left-wing candidates against the right-wing candidates.. This will be important especially in Sao Paulo, which is the most important mayor's office in the country,” predicts Leandro Lima.

Thus, it remains to be seen if, with Lula's management in need of electoral support and the investigations against Bolsonaro, Brazil, as in 2022, continues to be an ideologically divided country or if the balance tips, even slightly, to one of both sides.

WILLIAM MORENO HERNÁNDEZ
INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL
TIME