05/04/2024 – 8:40
Marked by successive floods, the state is affected by extreme events and climate denialism in public management, experts tell DW. The current historic flood is attributed to the overlapping of climatic phenomena. The extent of the tragedy caused by the historic floods that began in the central region of Rio Grande do Sul at the beginning of the week and reached the capital, Porto Alegre, is still unknown. Rescue teams were unable to enter many of the affected areas, the state Civil Defense told DW.
More than 100 people may have died as a result of the floods, 39 deaths were confirmed by Civil Defense this Friday. In recent days, half of the rain predicted for the entire year 2024 fell in the state, according to the Brazilian Geological Survey (SGB).
In Porto Alegre, volunteers welcome those arriving from the surrounding islands. Vessels transported more than 500 evacuated people to the capital. A sports training center was turned into a temporary shelter.
“The situation is terrible. We are without structure, practically in the dark. There are a lot of people coming here,” Paula Brust, one of the volunteers who welcomes those who arrive, tells DW.
For those who monitor the situation, the perplexity and fatigue due to the uninterrupted hours of work are great.
“We still can’t believe the volume of rain recorded. We even thought, initially, that our equipment was defective”, summarizes Franco Buffon, superintendent of the Southern region of the SGB.
The situation is considered so serious that, even if there were no more rain in the next few days, the situation would remain very dramatic. The forecast is for more rain to hit the region.
Escape and shock
In Porto Alegre, the level of Lake Guaíba reached a record high, reaching almost 5 meters this Saturday (04/05), surpassing the historic flood of 1941. That year, the water reached the mark of 4.76 meters and left 25% of the city’s homeless population.
The Guaíba, which until it crosses the capital is called Rio Jacuí, receives all the water that falls in the center of the state. Porto Alegre is the last city on the route to its outlet into the Atlantic.
In smaller municipalities along rivers that are part of the same river basin, entire communities appear to have been wiped off the map. In Estrela, the Taquari River reached a record height of 33 meters. This happens just six months after he reached his maximum elevation, which was 29.53 meters. When the water exceeds 19 meters, the river overflows and reaches houses and a nearby industry.
With the catastrophe, much measuring equipment was lost. Buffon, from the SGB, says that poles installed on the banks of the rivers were probably washed away by the flood, and sensors that are in contact with the water are hit by large objects that end up in the water: rocks, vehicles, house debris.
In São Leopoldo, bathed by the Rio dos Sinos, also part of the Guaíba river basin, families who always believed they lived in safe neighborhoods leave their homes. Biologist Daiana Schwengber ran from Porto Alegre to help her parents in the interior and now everyone is sheltering at a friend’s house.
“The water rose very quickly. We started clapping in front of people’s houses to help the Civil Defense warn people to get out. It was very sad. Lots of elderly people, everyone shocked,” Schwengber told DW about the situation in São Leopoldo.
Overlap of weather phenomena
Marcelo Seluchi, coordinator of the Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alert Center, Cemaden, says that the week of rain was expected, but not in the volume recorded. The explanation lies in an overlap of climate phenomena that turned the central region of Rio Grande do Sul into a “target”.
A strange heat wave for the month of May in central Brazil caused by a high pressure area acts as a “wall” and prevents the cold fronts coming from the South from advancing. As there was a sequence of blocked cold fronts, all the water rushed into Rio Grande do Sul and caused rain for hours and hours in a row. At the same time, winds arriving from the North and transporting moisture from the Amazon along so-called flying rivers found the same target.
“Probably, there is still the influence of El Niño, which is disappearing now in May. The heat waves are still intensified due to it”, assesses Tércio Ambrizzi, researcher at the Institute of Energy and Environment at the University of São Paulo, USP.
For Seluchi, no place in the world could resist a situation like this. “Perhaps there should be contingency plans, prevention plans, which are made during the dry season. It doesn’t happen from one week to the next. Yes, that is missing”, he analyzes.
Tragedy announced
All warnings about the occurrence of extreme weather events have been ignored by public authorities in Rio Grande do Sul, according to Miriam Prochnow, from the Association for the Preservation of the Environment and Life, Apremavi.
“Cities ignore the fact that this has to be taken into account when carrying out urban planning. They don’t think about removing people from risk areas, they allow occupation in areas where the flood has already arrived. It’s solemnly ignoring the climate crisis,” Prochnow tells DW.
Karina Lima, a geographer who researches severe storms at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, UFRGS, highlights that the state is in an area very affected by El Niño and La Niña – and that the government knows this.
“Mathematical models have long predicted that RS will continue the trend of increasing average annual precipitation and extreme precipitation, that is, more concentrated and severe rainfall. There is certainly very little investment in a state that is so vulnerable to extreme events”, says Lima.
For Clóvis Borges, executive director of the Society for Research in Wildlife and Environmental Education (SPVS), Rio Grande do Sul lost its resilience to face climate extremes many decades ago.
“It was the first state to cover the entire territory with agricultural property. They practically eliminated its natural areas”, says Borges, remembering that 7% of the original Atlantic Forest area remains in RS and that the Pampas biome is one of the most threatened.
“A fraction of the deaths and economic damage that we see now is due to non-compliance with environmental legislation. If the political class continues to relegate this, we will go through tougher situations”, predicts Borges.
“Denialism needs to be left aside as catastrophes are becoming increasingly intense”, says Heverton Lacerda, from the Gaúcha Association for the Protection of the Natural Environment (Agapan).
“The current governments, both in the state and in the city hall of the capital and other cities in the interior, are under the command of climate deniers. This is exposed by the policies they put forward”, Lacerda told DW.
Lacerda cites as an example a bill authored by deputy Alceu Moreira (MDB-RS), approved in the Chamber of Deputies last March. The measure authorizes the cutting of native non-forest vegetation – such as Pampa, part of the Cerrado and Pantanal. In practice, more than an area equivalent to the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná with native forests could disappear from the map if the law passes the Senate.
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