Have you ever wondered why it has been so hot in recent years? The answer to this question is giving even the most experienced scientists a hard time. In the 2023for example, the Earth's average temperature exceeded predictions by as much as 0.2°C, a small number that hides a gigantic anomaly on a global scale.
How did we get to this point?
The answer is not simple and involves a series of factors that we are still trying to fully understand. First, it is known that global warming is mainly due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, produced largely by human activities. But what surprised experts is the extent of the heat recorded, which exceeded all existing predictions and climate models.
A key element of this enigmatic situation was the weakening of the meteorological phenomenon known as El Niñowhich is characterized by a warming of the waters of the Pacific and can drastically affect the global climate. However, even with El Niño, climate models failed to predict the intensity of the heat we experienced.
Gavin Schmidt, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies from the NASA, explained that we are facing “uncharted territory”. The lack of precise data and uncertainty in the statistical techniques used so far further complicate scientists' ability to provide a comprehensive explanation.
Heat: Is it all due to human activity?
Probably yes, but not only that. Other factors, such as changes in solar activity and recent volcanic eruptions, can have significant, but temporary, effects on the climate. For example, the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 He released large amount of aerosols in the atmosphere, which they might have contributed to temporary cooling in some areas of the globe.
Furthermore, from 2020the new fuels ecological used for transportation maritime have reduced sulfur emissions, which, ironically, contribute to cooling of the planet interacting with the clouds. This decrease in atmospheric sulfur, therefore, could have an impact on warming overall more than expected.
What awaits us?
It's hard to say for sure. The next few months will be crucial to understand whether temperatures will return within the parameters predicted by the models or whether they will continue to surprise us. What is certain is that climate science is more challenging than ever and requires constant and renewed attention.
This scenario requires us to reflect on the impact of our actions on the planet and the importance of taking measures to mitigate climate change. After all, the well-being of our global environment depends on the choices we make today.
And you, what do you think we can do to reverse this trend? Do you believe there is still time to mitigate the effects of global warming?
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