Perhaps among so much “noise” that there was during the week – the two years of President Gustavo Petro’s administration, the crisis in Venezuela or the brief collapse of the stock market, to name a few – the news of The official nomination of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidate for the upcoming presidential elections in the United States went somewhat unnoticed, and it shouldn’t have since it marked a milestone in the history of that country.
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At 59 years old, Harris became last Wednesday – in the midst of a hurried virtual election – the second woman with a real chance of reaching the White House, and, incidentally, the first of African origin and with strong immigrant roots: she was born in California to a Jamaican father and an Indian mother.
Even more relevant, at least for the current context, is the impact that his meteoric rise is having on the race against Donald Trump, the candidate designated by the Republicans for the elections next November.
From being a resigned, even moribund, party, the Democrats reinvented themselves in the blink of an eye. They went from a crisis that led to President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the candidacy just three weeks ago to leading in most polls with Harris as a lifeline.
A tsunami of energy and fresh air that many compare to the wave felt in 2008 when the unknown Barack Obama emerged from the nomination process as an alternative for that year’s elections.
Although the electoral contest still has three months to go and it could be just a temporary honeymoon for a section of Americans towards Harris, the polls of the last few days have already begun to give support to the phenomenon.
In the last 15 national polls, including those by Marista College, Yougov, The Economist SurveyUSA and Morning Consult, Harris appears to be leading the race by advantages ranging from one point to more than three.
Similarly, in the polling averages published by portals such as 538 and Race to the White House, where all polls are considered – reliable and less reliable – the difference in favor of Harris is 2.1 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively.
The advantage, of course, is not large and is within the margin of error. But, if we take into account that the starting point is Biden’s withdrawal, the jump is almost six percentage points. In addition, there is the consistency of the trajectory, which is similar in most cases.
In the survey that publishes The Economist In the August 7 poll, for example, Harris received 47.6 percent of the votes, compared to Trump’s 45.4 percent. According to the British magazine, This is the first time since October of last year that the Democratic option has surpassed the Republican alternative.
The race against Joe Biden, after her poor performance in the June debate, was a bit unreal. Harris has simply returned the race to where we were before: that of a country divided in half.
However, strategists close to the elephant party acknowledge the change in dynamics, but see no reason to panic.
“The race against Joe Biden, after his poor performance in the June debate, was a bit unreal. Harris has simply returned the race to where we were before: a country divided in half,” said a source close to the Trump campaign.
Something that Larry Sábato, director of the electoral project at the University of Virginia, partially agrees with.
“Harris,” says Sábato, “has at least stopped the Democrats’ bloodshed and recovered lost ground. How much more he can grow is what we don’t know.”
This is a balance that also emerges from polls in the so-called “swing” states, which will define the race for the White House.
Prior to Biden’s withdrawal, The former Republican president was leading in the polls in the seven states that are considered truly competitive: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. All except North Carolina, with the precedent that Biden won them in the 2020 election.
However, since her withdrawal from the candidacy, the numbers have tightened. While Trump still leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
That is to say, at this point, the race for the US presidency looks like a technical tie in which anyone could win. Of course, with the difference that for the Democrats it is Harris who is now on the rise and perhaps has not yet reached her ceiling.
Trump acts defensively against Harris
Tim Walz, the current governor of Minnesota, was named this week as Harris’ vice presidential running mate. Although it is a position that does not add much to the race, Walz, with his background as a public school teacher, former National Guard veteran and seasoned politician with sharp oratory, was well received by the majority of the electorate.. Especially because of his appeal to voters in the Midwestern states, where he is from, which could tip the balance.
Trump’s reaction, who had been absent from the news cycle for a couple of weeks, also made it clear that he is feeling the pressure of the Democratic escalation.
In a heated press conference this week from Florida, and via social media, the former president went on the attack, accusing the duo of being “extreme liberals” who seek to destroy the country and ended by not only accepting the debate proposed by Harris for this September 10, but also asking for two more to be held.
“I know Trump well, and this is a Donald Trump who is frustrated and scared by what he sees. When he starts saying that he is winning, that we should not believe the polls, that everything is unfair, and he resorts to the discourse that the country is burning, that crime is out of control, that we are being invaded by terrorists, that is a Trump on the defensive and desperately trying to change the dynamic,” says Anthony Scaramucci, one of his communications chiefs when he occupied the Oval Office.
Stephanie Grisham, another former official who worked with Trump during those years, agrees with Scaramucci and points out that, precisely, The main problem with the tycoon is his defensive and pessimistic stance, which explains Harris’ rise.
“Trump’s strategy, now and before, is one of drama and pessimism because it motivates the base. But people are also tired of so much negativity, it is a tiring message, and many want hope. That is what Kamala Harris is channeling,” says Grisham.
Although the Democratic campaign has not completely abandoned the rhetoric that the former president is a danger to democracy – a strategy also based on fear and which was more closely identified with Biden’s electoral bid – the change in its discourse towards one where the future is promising is noticeable.
“My promise to you is this: Our campaign will reach everyone, from red states to blue states, from the heartland to the coasts, rural, urban, suburban, and tribal communities. Our campaign is for everyone, and we will govern for everyone,” Harris said this week after accepting the nomination.
Trump, in his words, “He is a grumpy octogenarian who wants to take us back to a bygone, worse time.”
The two narratives, of course, are unrealistic. Neither is the United States the “third world hole” that the former Republican president talks about, nor will it be easy to turn it into the green pasture that Harris now seems to promise in the face of the great challenges that the country faces in economic and foreign policy matters. But, for the moment, the United States seems to have changed the X-ray of an electoral contest that restarted three weeks ago and whose outcome remains up in the air.
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