The Armenian prime minister announced this Sunday a change of alliances, turning his back on Moscow after Azerbaijan invaded Nagorno Karabakh and disrupted Russia’s map of influence in the Caucasus.
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In a speech broadcast on television, Nikol Pashinyan described his country’s current alliances as “ineffective”, alluding to its relations with Russia, inherited from the time when Armenia was part of the Soviet Union.
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“The foreign security system in which Armenia is involved proved ineffective in protecting its security and interests,” Pashinyan declared, in the wake of the invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The prime minister decided not to mobilize the Armenian army against this Azerbaijani interventionleaving the separatists in this region – populated mainly by Armenians – alone against the military power of Baku.
The external security system in which Armenia is involved proved ineffective in protecting its security and interests.
“Armenia has never renounced its obligations or betrayed its allies. But the analysis of the situation shows that the security systems and allies we have long relied on have set themselves the goal of showing our vulnerability and the inability of the Armenian people to have an independent State,” he added.
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Post-Soviet Alliance
Armenia is still part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance led by Russia. But the offensive in Nagorno Karabakh precipitated things.
The CSTO is an alliance born in 2002 that brings together several former Soviet republics around Russia: Armenia, Belarus and also, in Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
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Armenia also hosts a Russian base, in Gyumri, where thousands of soldiers are stationed.
With his televised intervention this Sunday, “Pashinyan deliberately aggravates tensions with Russia,” said independent Armenian analyst Beniamin Matevossian, interviewed by AFP.
“It is more about blackmail than a change in foreign policy line. He openly tells Russia: ‘If you don’t take care of the Karabakh Armenians, I will leave the CSTO'”considered the expert.
According to him, with this move, Pashinyan would seek to shift the blame to Moscow, precisely when the Armenian population has expressed its anger towards the government for its management of the crisis and its policy of military non-intervention.
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“Pashinyan’s speech seeks, first of all, to mobilize around him not only his political allies and his party but also a broader circle of citizens” in the face of the protest movement, said independent analyst Hakob Badalyan.
Russia’s central role
Russia occupies a central position in this conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Moscow, confirming its role as a regional power, was the one sponsored the ceasefire agreement that ended another period of fighting in 2020.
Russia deployed peacekeepers to that territory, but they did not prevent the lightning invasion carried out by Baku troops this week.
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“There is a geopolitical game there. A small Russian peacekeeping force was created in 2020” that “has always oscillated and manipulated both sides,” stressed Thomas de Waal, from the Carnegie Europe center, in an analysis released this week.
But, with the attack launched by Azerbaijan, “The impression was reinforced that there was an agreement between Moscow and Baku,” he added. According to him, Russia would be punishing Pashinyan for his increasingly marked “pro-Western inclination”.
This Sunday’s announcement confirms a rift that has been going on for months: in January, Armenia refused to host the CSTO maneuvers, and last month, it participated with the United States in military exercises, something that Moscow did not welcome. eyes.
AFP
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