Why did the far-right’s victory in two regional elections trigger a political earthquake in Germany?

The political movement Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party considered in that country as far rightachieved two important electoral results this Sunday during the regional elections.

In the region of Thuringia was the most voted coalition, while in Saxony They came in second behind the conservatives.

This result, especially that of Thuringia, It is the first victory for a party that is on the far right of the ideological spectrum in a German election since the end of World War II, which has already sparked various reactions in that country and Europe.

The AfD’s chances of forming a government, however, are remote unless some party breaks the deadlock. “sanitary cordon” which has been imposed and which, although it has occasionally cracked in specific votes, is unlikely to bring a leader of that movement to power.

However, the results do provide a first indication of the mood ahead of next year’s general elections, in which the future of the German chancellor could be at stake. Olaf Scholz.

What were the AfD’s election results in Germany and what do these results mean?

In Thuringia, a state in eastern Germany, the AfD won by a landslide with around 33.1 percent of the vote, ahead of the conservative CDU (24.3 percent), according to the results.

In Saxony, where elections were also held, the conservative CDU party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel has a slight lead with 31.7% of the vote, closely followed by the AfD with 31.4%.

Our industry lives off exports and we need migration

The first results confirm a major blow to the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government with the Greens and the liberals of the FDP, one year before the 2025 general election.

In fact, the Chancellor’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) received between 6.5% and 8.5%.

The Greens will be leaving the Thuringian parliament, and the liberal FDP will no longer be represented in any of the regional assemblies.

These federal states, which have significant prerogatives in the areas of education and security in the German system, could be governed by broad, heterogeneous alliances that bring together the right and the left.

However, the AfD now has a blocking minority in the Thuringian parliament, which would allow it, among other things, to prevent the appointment of judges.

Why, despite the results, do they not seem to be able to govern and what is the so-called “cordon sanitaire”?

Olaf Scholz On Monday, he called on “all democratic parties” to form “stable governments without the extreme right” in these two regions.

“The AfD is harming Germany. It weakens the economy, divides society and ruins the reputation of our country,” the Social Democrat leader said in a message on Facebook.

The conservatives, for their part, have also shown reluctance to join forces with the AfD to form a government.

“Voters know that we will not form a coalition with the AfD,” said CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann on Sunday, arguing that his party should lead the negotiations to form a government.

This call to form any kind of alliance with the AfD is known as a “cordon sanitaire,” a term borrowed from medicine that in this case is applied to politics to refer to isolating the movement.

“The voters have given us a clear mandate to govern in both Thuringia and Saxony and I would like to warn against the temptation to ignore it. The cordon sanitaire is undemocratic,” he said. AfD co-chair Alice Weidel at a party press conference.

Why could the victory of the far right be negative for the economy, according to analysts?

“There is a great danger that economic successes and prosperity in Thuringia and Saxony will be undermined,” said Marcel Fratzscher, director of the Berlin Institute for Economic Studies (DIW).

There is a great danger that economic successes and well-being in Thuringia and Saxony will be undermined.

Fratzscher said in a statement reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung that the AfD advocates protectionism, distancing itself from Europe and is against immigration of skilled workers, while the German economy needs exactly the opposite.

Even if a government is formed without the AfD in both federal states, Fratzscher believes there will be consequences because workers and companies could flee.

“First of all, young, well-educated and motivated people will leave the two federal states to go where they feel more appreciated. This could lead to an exodus of companies and an increase in bankruptcies,” he said.

Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, president of the Wissenschaftszentrum (Science Centre) in Berlin, argues along the same lines.

“Our industry lives off exports and we need migration,” he said in an interview with the same newspaper.

The director of the Institute for Macroeconomics (IMK), Sebastian Dullien, warns of the danger of populist parties’ programmes influencing German politics. The main fears relate to the AfD’s call for leaving the EU and a complete ban on immigration.

What are the political ideals of the AfD and why are they controversial?

The election took place in a particularly tense atmosphere, more than a week after the triple knife murder of a Syrian in Solingen, an attack that shocked Germany and revived the debate on immigration.

The AfD appealed to a radical discourse against immigration and called for an end to arms deliveries to Ukraine, a very popular position in those regions that belonged to the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and where the fear of war remains deeply rooted.

The AfD, which was Eurosceptic when it was founded in 2013, became more radical after the great migration crisis of 2015, the Covid-19 pandemic and then the Russian war in Ukraine, which weakened Europe’s largest economy.

Can early elections be called?

This scenario of new elections, however bad the results may seem for the parties in Scholz’s coalition, will not take place, Wolfgang Merkel, a political scientist at the Berlin Center for Social Research (WZB, by its German acronym), told Efe.

In his view, calling new elections after the poor results of Scholz’s Social Democrats, the Greens and the liberals of the FDP would be a solution with worse consequences than the setback suffered on Sunday.

“For the moment, the government coalition is not in danger, although the parties that make up the coalition will have to think about the reasons for the defeat on Sunday,” said Merkel.

“But the scenario of new elections will not happen because in a new election, all the coalition parties would lose compared to the position they have today,” he added, referring to the parliamentary majority that the SPD, the Greens and the FDP still enjoy in the Bundestag (lower house of parliament) by virtue of the results of the 2021 general elections.

According to polls of voting intentions, the coalition parties will not be able to obtain a majority at the national level.

Recent polls have suggested that the FDP would not break the 5% barrier in a new general election, while both the Greens and Social Democrats would be severely weakened in a new electoral test.