Why did Mongolia defy the ICC arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin, and what will be the consequences of the decision?

With all the honors and on the red carpet. So Russian President Vladimir Putin was received in Mongolia on Tuesday, despite the arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC). and that the Asian country had to execute as a member of the ICC.

Putin arrived in the Mongolian capital on Monday evening and was welcomed by his counterpart Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh at Genghis Khan Square on Tuesday. The reason for the trip was the celebration of the 85th anniversary of the victory of the Mongolian and Soviet forces against Imperial Japan.

This is Putin’s first visit to an ICC member state since the court issued an arrest warrant. against him in 2023 for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

Since the Court does not have its own police force, the execution of arrest warrants falls to member states, as is the case in Mongolia.which signed the Rome Statute, the founding treaty of the ICC, in 2000 and ratified it in 2002.

However, despite calls from the ICC, kyiv and international organisations such as Amnesty International, Mongolia refused to comply with the arrest warrant.

Why did Mongolia decide not to carry out the arrest and what happens when a State does not comply with an ICC arrest warrant?

Why does Vladimir Putin have an arrest warrant?

On 18 March 2023, the ICC issued an arrest warrant against the Russian President and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Russia’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights, for his alleged responsibility for “the war crime of illegal deportation of population (of children) and illegal transfer of population (of children) from the occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.”

According to the ICC indictment, There are “reasonable grounds” to believe that Putin bears “individual criminal responsibility” for the war crime which, the court says, was committed from February 24, 2022, the day Moscow began its invasion of Ukrainian territory.

Russia, like the United States, China and Israel, has not signed the Rome Statute and does not recognise the jurisdiction of this court. However, the arrest warrant can be enforced if the official or person in question visits a country that recognises the jurisdiction of the ICC and is a signatory to the Rome Statute.

Indeed, Article 86 of the treaty provides that “States Parties shall, in accordance with the provisions of this Statute, cooperate fully with the Court in the investigation and prosecution of crimes within its jurisdiction.”

For this reason, Putin has reduced his trips abroad since 2023 or visits to territories not affiliated with the ICC. For example, last July he refused to attend the BRICS summit in South Africa for fear of being arrested in the African country.

Why is Putin risking a trip to Mongolia despite an ICC arrest warrant?

Although Mongolia is obliged to comply with the arrest warrant, it has been clear since the trip was announced that the Mongolian government would not comply with the ICC’s order. Last week, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that There was no concern in the Kremlin about a possible arrest. “We maintain an excellent dialogue with our Mongolian friends,” he added.

In addition to the assurance that he would not be arrested, Elena Davlikanova, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), says there are other underlying reasons why Putin decided to go to Mongolia despite the order.

First of all, the expert says that the purpose of the visit is to divert attention from what is happening in the Kursk region, where Ukraine is carrying out an offensive that, for the first time in more than two years, has allowed it to take the war directly to Russian territory.

It is difficult to reestablish Russia as a respected global power when its president is isolated

The analyst said the trip was also intended to help project an image of a strong leader and send a message that the West cannot influence the Russian president.

“It is difficult to reestablish Russia as a respected global power when its president is isolated and has not attended key international meetings for two years. Kremlin advisers hope his “fearless” appearance will send a signal to his supporters that the West cannot dictate terms to Russia,” Davlikanova points out in an analysis by CEPA.

The expert also notes that the trip sends the message that Putin “is willing to defy international legal norms in order to undermine international law.”

“If the world order continues to weaken, the prospects for a tribunal for Russian war criminals, reparations and accountability would significantly diminish,” he added.

Finally, Davlikanova says, The Kremlin needs to confront the economic difficulties brought on by Western sanctions, which is why it is betting on continuing to expand its influence in Asia. In this sense, its trip to Mongolia becomes key.

And why did Mongolia not execute the ICC arrest warrant?

Political analyst Bayarlkhagva Munkhnaran told the AFP that “it is clear that there was no option to stop Putin” because for that country “the current scandal linked to the ICC arrest warrant “It is only a secondary issue to the need to maintain secure and predictable relations with the Kremlin.”

Mongolia, located between China and Russia, was part of Moscow’s orbit during the Soviet era, and since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, has maintained close relations with both its neighbours.

The scandal is merely a secondary issue compared to the need to maintain secure and predictable relations with the Kremlin.

The country has strong cultural ties with Moscow, but above all it is highly dependent on it in trade, energy and security.

During Putin’s visit to Mongolia on Tuesday, the president of the Asian country said Russia is “one of his main trading partners,” while Putin stressed that, in 2024 alone, the volume of trade between the two nations grew by more than 21 percent.

The Mongolian government, it should be noted, has not condemned the Russian offensive in Ukraine and has abstained from voting in the UN on the conflict. He also did not comment on the calls for Putin’s arrest.

In that sense, Davlikanova points out that the Asian country’s situation is precarious and that its ties with China and Russia are essential for its economy, which limits its capacity for action.

“With a population of some three million spread over a vast territory, it lacks significant military power. It is economically dependent on its powerful neighbours and is attractive for its rich natural resources, which form the backbone of its economy. Russia and China account for the majority of Mongolia’s trade and investment, and all trade routes pass through its territory. “This dependence clearly limits the country’s ability to make independent decisions,” says Davlikanova.

What is Mongolia exposing itself to after refusing to arrest President Vladimir Putin?

In practice, the International Criminal Court lacks an effective enforcement mechanism, and member states may be exempt from making arrests. if doing so conflicts with certain treaty obligations or diplomatic immunity.

The ICC could refer the case to the Assembly of States Parties. That assembly, which meets once a year, in turn could condemn Mongolia’s violation through the so-called “non-compliance procedure”.

“States Parties to the Rome Statute have a legal obligation to cooperate fully with the Court. Where a State Party fails to comply with a request for cooperation, the Court may so note and refer the matter to the Assembly of States Parties for appropriate action,” the ICC treaty explains.

However, Any sanctions imposed by this assembly are essentially limited to a verbal warning.

Another option would be for the court to refer it to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which would have legal, diplomatic and reputational consequences.

However, action against Mongolia seems unlikely. Reed Brody, a former US attorney general, told Radio France Internationale that “to date, no State has transferred an official from another State to the ICC.”

How did the international community react to Mongolia’s decision not to arrest Putin?

Mongolia’s refusal to arrest Putin has already sparked strong criticism. kyiv, for example, accused the Asian country of “allowing the accused criminal to escape justice,” while the European Union regretted that Mongolia had not fulfilled its obligations as a party to the Rome Statute.

Ukraine called for a strong international response, saying failure to comply with the order could set a dangerous precedent. and weaken the power of the ICC in the world.

“This is a serious blow to the reputation of the International Criminal Court and the entire system of international law,” he told Efe Oleksandr Merezhko, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament and MP from the ruling Servant of the People party.

Amnesty International had also warned about this before Putin’s trip, saying that Failure to carry out the arrest would encourage the current course of action of the Russian president and should be considered as a strategic effort to undermine the work of the ICC. to prosecute suspected war criminals.

This is a serious blow to the reputation of the International Criminal Court and the entire system of international law.

“Protecting a fugitive from international justice would not only amount to obstructing justice. If Mongolia provides President Putin with a safe haven, even temporarily, it will effectively become complicit in ensuring impunity. “for some of the most serious crimes under international law,” said Altantuya Batdorj, Executive Director of Amnesty International Mongolia.

Ukrainian lawmaker Merezhko has already proposed that Ukraine cooperate in initiating sanctions against Mongolia, but above all to put in place truly effective legal instruments to punish non-compliance with the Rome Statute.