Why are election results in Taiwan worsening tension between China and the US?

The eyes of the world were on Taiwan's presidential election this weekendan island that China claims it as its own, but in recent decades it has distanced itself from its sphere of influence under the support of USA.

(Read here: Taiwan: William Lai, the 'independence worker', wins the presidential election)

Lai Ching-te, who for four years has served as the Taiwanese vice president, was elected this January 14 as the next president, an electoral result that predicts an even greater escalation of tensions between the two great superpowers.

The elected president has publicly declared his intention to maintain the 'status quo' in Taipei, betting on sovereignty and increasingly strengthening his ties with Washington, something that unleashes fury among senior Chinese officials.

Some analysts have warned that this could worsen tensions that already exist between China and the United States and even drag them into open conflict.

Why is there controversy over Taiwan and what does the United States have to do with it?

After the 1949 civil war in China, when Mao Zedong's troops defeated the Nationalists, Chiang Kai-shek's soldiers took refuge in Taiwan and the island's status has been a matter of controversy ever since. Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory, while Taipei, in practice, maintains a kind of political independence.

In 1971, the Taiwanese lost their UN membership and Beijing has since assumed the seat. Then, in 1979, the United States recognized the Beijing government as China's representative and almost the entire international community adopted the “one China” policy, which excluded diplomatic relations with the island.

However, Washington often maintains ambiguous rhetoric on Taiwan. Although the Americans say they do not support the independence of Taiwan, in recent years they have increased their sale of military weapons and have assured that if China invades the island they will not hesitate to support it.

What does China say about the US position?

China rejects any type of diplomatic rapprochement between third countries and Taiwan. The government sees this as attempts to undermine China's sovereignty over the island. He has even warned the United States on several occasions to avoid further closer ties with Taipei.

In fact, China has said it will one day retake the island.

Before the elections, China vowed to “crush” any attempt to promote “Taiwan independence.”

In a statement, the Ministry of Defense said that “the Chinese People's Liberation Army maintains high vigilance at all times and will take all necessary measures to firmly crush attempts at 'Taiwan independence' in all its forms.” .

Incidentally, in recent months, the Chinese military has increased the number of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, increasing tensions in this key area for global trade.

If China invades Taiwan, could there be a confrontation between Beijing and Washington?

A few months ago, a four-star general in the United States Air Force sent a memo warning that an open confrontation with China would be possible in 2025, which is why he called on the country to be prepared for this eventual scenario.

And although the parties have said that they want to avoid this at all costs, tensions remain. Washington sent an unofficial delegation to meet with the elected president of Taiwan, something that once again caused annoyance in China.

In August 2022, for example, a visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosithen speaker of the United States House of Representatives, It provoked outrage in China, which launched large-scale military maneuvers in response.

Alexander Huang, a military expert at Tamkang University in Taipei, does not believe there will be an immediate Chinese military reaction but what “Beijing will increase pressure on Taiwan in other ways.”

Taiwan already observes the presence of Chinese planes and warships in the strait almost daily, which raises fears of an incident, even more so because there are no high-level communications between Beijing and Taipei.

Why is Taiwan important to the world economy and why do Washington and Beijing want to influence the island?

Taiwan is the world's largest producer of semiconductors, an essential part for the manufacture of high-tech products.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a global leader in semiconductors, supplies nearly 50% of the world's production of microchips smaller than 10 nanometers.

That is why the new president will have to find a balance between geopolitical tensions and an environment conducive to exports. Lai promised on Saturday to give “strong support to the semiconductor industry.”

According to Wen-ti Sung, China could increase its economic pressure as it did in 2022, after Pelosi's visit, then prohibiting the import of some fruits and fish from Taiwan.

Who is the new Taiwanese president?

Son of a coal miner and doctor by trainingLai (Wanli, 1959) began participating in politics in the mid-1990s, when Taiwanese democracy was beginning to make its way: in 1994 he headed an association of health professionals in support of Chen Ting-nan, then aspiring governor. of Taiwan province by the PDP.

His real rise to fame came in 2010, the year in which he was elected mayor of Tainan, a position he held until 2017, leaving a record in history: in 2014, he was re-elected with nearly 73% of the votes, highest percentage for local elections since the lifting of martial law in 1987.

After defining himself as a “pragmatic worker for the independence of Taiwan” in 2017, Lai has been moderating his speech around the island's autonomy, in line with the majority opinion of Taiwanese society, which is favorable to maintaining the status current quo.

As a candidate for president of the PDP, Lai ruled out the possibility of formally declaring independence, since, he assures, Taiwan is already a “sovereign and independent country” under the name of the Republic of China.

Contrary to the “one China principle”, Lai proposes continuing the policies undertaken by Tsai Ing-wen around four principles: strengthening military deterrence, guaranteeing the island's economic security, deepening relations with the world's leading democracies and maintaining a pragmatic policy towards China.

INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL
*With AFP and Efe