Syria faces its biggest change in more than 50 years. The arrival of the rebels to power after a lightning offensive of only 11 days has ended with 13 years of war and with the departure of Bashar al Assad after 24 years as the country’s top leader, a power he inherited in 2000 from his own father, who became president of the country in 1971.
The end of that dynasty has now brought a still uncertain horizon for all of Syria. The rebel forces, led by Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani, have managed to overthrow the former president and are waiting for the institutions to be “officially handed over” by the Syrian Prime Minister, Mohamed Ghazi Al Jalali, who remains in the country and has shown himself open to collaborating with any Syrian who is “interested in the country to preserve the institutions.” However, beyond this transfer of powers, the truth is that it is still unknown what scenario will occur from now on.
Furthermore, far from forming as a united group, the reality is that the insurgents They make up a great amalgamation of groups ranging from jihadists or Kurdish militias, to groups of rebels supported by Türkiye and another large conglomerate of local factions from the south of the country. All of them have caused the fall of the Syrian regime and, therefore, the end of an era also marked by foreign interference from countries like Russia or Iran, how does the political map look now and which countries gain or lose with the fall of Al Assad?
Russia and Iran lose power in the Middle East
The end of Al Assad, who had to leave Damascus this Sunday and travel to Moscow, where he has received asylum “for humanitarian reasons”, is a hard blow for both Russia and Iran. The two countries projected their influence in the Middle East in Syriaso they now face the loss of a strategic ally in a map already intensified by the large number of conflicts.
In fact, it has been the existence of the war with Ukraine in the case of Moscow, and the open conflict with Israel in the case of Tehran, which has caused both countries have been gradually reducing their support to the Syrian regime in favor of their respective conflicts. With this, both countries have not been able to continue inflating enough forces to contain the power of Al Assad and thus stop the Syrian rebels.
The two countries had been shoring up Al Assad’s position at the head of Syria for years. Putin, in fact, helped keep him as top leader especially since 2015, when began sending thousands of troops to Syrian territory. They had done the same from Iran, which used Syria as a large logistics and coordination base and had a large military presence there.
The Axis of Resistance –the anti-Israel military alliance led by Iran– is therefore weakened with the fall of Syria, although it still has Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis of Yemen and a group of militias from Iraq. Syria, furthermore, was the only state that was part of this alliance and played an especially important role because it gave Iran direct access to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
With the fall of Damascus, both Russia and Iran are still waiting to see which government is now installed in power and how their transition occurs. Despite this, They have asked that the problems in the country be solved peacefully and from Tehran they have expressed that the future of Syria “must be decided by its people.” The Kremlin has also assured that they will negotiate the future of their bases with the country’s new authorities and from Iran they have shown themselves open to dialogue with the Syrian rebels to coordinate an “inclusive government.”
Israel sees it as a triumph over Iran
On the other hand, the fall of Al Assad has a meaning of celebration for Israel due, precisely, to the loss of influence of its enemy Iran in the region. ““The Assad regime was a central link in Iran’s axis of evil: this regime has fallen,” In fact, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this Sunday.
However, the Israeli authorities are expectant in the face of the uncertainty generated by the new Syrian panorama and have expressed their fear that the regime’s weapons thus fall “into the wrong hands.” Furthermore, with the fall of the Al Assad regime, Israel has made a move and has deployed its troops in a demilitarized territory that was in dispute with Syria and where insurgent forces had approached in recent days. Likewise, although nothing has been confirmed by Israel, several Syrian media and activist groups have denounced several Israeli bombings on arms warehouses and military airports in Damascus.
Türkiye, behind the insurgent forces
Another of the main protagonists behind the fall of the Syrian regime is Türkiye. The start of hostilities in Syria in 2011 caused the Islamist Erdogan to show his support for those who opposed Al Assad. The Turkish authorities They actually opened the doors of their country to the millions of Syrians who were escaping repression and subsequently opted in 2017 to militarily support the rebel forces, especially a group located in northern Syria and which was also fighting against Kurdish groups, a traditional enemy of Turkey.
In Syrian territory, Turkey has thus carried out three major military operations and, although it does not directly control the group of rebels of the Syrian National Army (SNA) which it has supported in recent years, Its importance is key to understanding the fall of Al Assad. Erdogan has supported all these years the Islamists who have resisted in Idlib and it was precisely from there that they began to advance towards cities such as Aleppo, Hama, Homs and, finally, Damascus.
It remains to be seen how the situation is resolved now in Syria and Erdogan, for his part, has chosen to maintain a neutral tone while the rebels’ lightning offensive was underway, but the truth is that Türkiye can play an important role in determining what happens from now on.
The US and the EU, faced with great uncertainty
On the geopolitical board, US forces had been reducing their presence in Syria in recent years, especially with the arrival of Donald Trump to power in 2016. The former president withdrew hundreds of troops in the country, leaving only the defense of several oil fields. Currently, the country has only 900 soldiers deployed in Syrian territory, a presence that was unauthorized by the Al Assad regime.
With his departure, Joe Biden has declared that his overthrow is an “act of justice”, although he has warned that the moment now represents great “risk and uncertainty” for the Middle East, especially due to the possibility of a resurgence of the Islamic State. Faced with this possibility, US forces bombed this Monday 75 targets of the terrorist group in Syria with the aim that this organization does not manage to increase its power.
The EU, for its part, indicated this Sunday that Al Assad’s departure is “something positive and long awaited”. This was expressed by the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, who this Monday once again highlighted these events, ensuring that This shows the “weakness” of Russia and Iran and stating that the Syrian people have demonstrated “extraordinary resilience in their search for dignity, freedom and justice.”
Regarding the future of the country, Kallas stressed that the EU stands with all Syrian citizens who are “full of hope” but also with those who “fear an uncertain future.” Furthermore, European authorities hope that the safety of members of all minorities will be protected, as well as that diplomatic representations in Damascus will be respected.
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